Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘2018’

A Fly in the Economic Ointment?

Posted by hkarner - 22. Januar 2018

The stock market is off to a rip-roaring start. For the first time ever, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has spent an entire quarter above its upper Bollinger band. That is, it’s more than two standard deviations above its 21-day moving average. You can click on the link for more detail. This might be a little technical for some of you, but it does demonstrate that there’s a great deal of exuberance in the market.


Tony Sagami

Further, Howard Silverblatt at S&P just came out with his forecasted earnings for 2018 (hat tip Ed Easterling for sending this to me). He revised 2017 earnings down by a few dollars to $110 as S&P analysts realized that companies are going to have to take write-downs for their deferred tax losses. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Year of the Octopus, Part 1

Posted by hkarner - 8. Januar 2018

In last week’s letter, “Economy on a Roll,” I gave you my own fairly upbeat 2018 forecast. I think the US economy and markets will probably hold up well, thanks to tax cuts and deregulation – assuming the Federal Reserve gets no more hawkish than it already has. That assumption may be a stretch, given the Fed’s changing composition, but I’m feeling optimistic anyway.

The one real potential wrench in the works that I did not mention last week was Trump’s actually enacting significant tariffs or tearing up NAFTA, which would cost millions of jobs and cause significant backlash. I am hopeful that mistake won’t be made.

This week and next we’ll look at forecasts from some of my most trusted friends and colleagues. I have so many that our project may even stretch into a third week. Some disagree with my own views – and that’s perfectly fine. I want you to see all sides so you can make good decisions for your own family and portfolio. I’ll let these forecasters speak for themselves in longer quotes than I usually allow, then add my own comments. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Buried bombs? The world economy

Posted by hkarner - 3. Januar 2018

Date: 02-01-2018
Source: The Economist

The IMF expects every large economy to expand in 2018. While a global financial crisis is highly unlikely this year, there are more than a few ways the current projections could go wrong.

China, where debt and new borrowing remain worryingly high, may not be able to maintain growth while putting out financial fires, and slower growth there would affect other economies.

The euro area could face a crisis like 2007-09, if a big economy with slow growth and high public debt loses market confidence and needs a bail-out too big for German voters to accept.

In the Middle East, meanwhile, a regional war would cause oil prices to soar, leading to a recession in developed economies that exposes unseen financial vulnerabilities.

Then there are central banks, which may cause a downturn by tightening policy too much, too quickly. Still, as the IMF’s forecasts indicate, all will probably be fine.

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Economy on a Roll

Posted by hkarner - 2. Januar 2018

I don’t really think of myself as a forecaster. I talk about the future all the time, of course, and I tell you what I think is coming – but whether it will arrive next month, next year, or five years from now is a different question. Timing is hard.

So, when I write annual forecast letters like this one, I put some extra pressure on myself. In addition to identifying the macro forces in play, I try to anticipate when we will see their impact. That’s never been easy, and it seems to get tougher every year. But inquiring minds want to know, so here we go.

 

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The World Economy in 2018

Posted by hkarner - 24. Dezember 2017

Michael J. Boskin is Professor of Economics at Stanford University and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He was Chairman of George H. W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1989 to 1993, and headed the so-called Boskin Commission, a congressional advisory body that highlighted errors in official US inflation estimates.

In the tenth year since the start of the global financial crisis, the US economy reached a new high-water mark, and the global economy exceeded expectations. But whether these positive trends continue in 2018 will depend on a variety of factors, from fiscal and monetary policymaking to domestic politics and regional stability.

STANFORD – All major macroeconomic indicators – growth, unemployment, and inflation – suggest that 2017 will be the American economy’s best year in a decade. And the global economy is enjoying broad, synchronized growth beyond what anyone expected. The question now is whether this strong performance will continue in 2018.

The answer, of course, will depend on monetary, fiscal, trade, and related policies in the United States and around the world. And yet it is hard to predict what policy proposals will emerge in 2018. There are relatively new heads of state in the US, France, and the United Kingdom; German leaders still have not formed a governing coalition since the general election in September; and the US Federal Reserve has a new chair awaiting confirmation. Moreover, major changes in important developing economies such as Argentina, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil have made the future outlook even murkier. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Investors: 3 Things That Can Go Wrong in 2018

Posted by hkarner - 23. Dezember 2017

Date: 22-12-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Don’t luxuriate in the incredible market gains of 2017. Here are the most important risks of the year ahead

In the international markets, a stronger dollar would hurt overextended emerging-markets borrowers. In the past these were mostly sovereigns, but since the 2008 crisis it has been EM corporates that leveraged up.

Investors who spend their holidays looking back at what’s happened this year will be wallowing in happy nostalgia, as virtually every asset went up. But investing is about the future, not the past, so break away from the complacency-inducing returns of 2017 and think about what could go wrong.

A look back at what went right is a helpful way to frame the question. Here are three big things that didn’t happen in 2017, and could hurt:

Monetary tightening. The Federal Reserve raised rates three times this year, yet it became easier to borrow and over long periods actually got cheaper. Instead of rising, long-dated bond yields fell, and global monetary conditions were further eased by the weakness of the dollar. The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions index is at the loosest since January 1994, the year that surprise Fed tightening crushed the bond markets. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe’s Chance in 2018

Posted by hkarner - 20. Dezember 2017

Ana Palacio, a former Spanish foreign minister and former Senior Vice President of the World Bank, is a member of the Spanish Council of State, a visiting lecturer at Georgetown University, and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on the United States.

With no looming crisis and only one major election in 2018, the coming year is on track to be one of relative calm for Europe, providing a rare opportunity for the European Union to make progress on long-term challenges, from climate leadership to migration. Three areas, in particular, stand out.

MADRID – It has become a cliché to declare, each December, that the next year will be a crucial one for the European Union. The pattern is familiar: Europe has a turbulent 12 months, driven by events for which it was not prepared, jerry-rigs a response, and resolves to address the deeper structural issues. Then the next year arrives, and Europe is again overwhelmed by events, and becomes trapped again in short-term crisis-response mode. Will 2018 break the mold?

The short answer is that it might – or, at least, it can. After nearly a decade of relentless drama – a financial disaster, followed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea, the migration crisis, the Brexit vote, and the election of a US president who has called into question the transatlantic relationship – Europe is entering 2018 in a relatively stable position. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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9 Technology Mega Trends That Will Change The World In 2018

Posted by hkarner - 14. Dezember 2017

, Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. Dec. 4, 2017

Some tech trends fizzle out and die a quiet death, while others are so significant that they transform our world and how we live in it. Here are the top nine tech mega-trends that I believe will define 2018 and beyond.

Trend 1: The increasing datafication of our lives

From chatting to friends in a messaging app or buying a coffee, to tapping in and out with an Oyster card or streaming music, today almost everything we do leaves a trail of data breadcrumbs. And this increasing datafication of our world has led to an unprecedented explosion in data.

Just in the average minute, Facebook receives 900,000 logins, more than 450,000 Tweets are posted, and 156 million emails and 15 million texts are sent.With numbers like that, it’s no wonder we’re essentially doubling the amount of data created in the world roughly every two years.

Trend 2: The Internet of Things (IoT) and how everyday devices are becoming more ‘smart’

The IoT – which encompasses smart, connected products like smart phones and smart watches –is a major contributing factor in this exponential increase in data. That’s because all these smart devices are constantly gathering data, connecting to other devices and sharing that data – all without human intervention (your Fitbit synching data to your phone, for instance). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Global Economy in 2018

Posted by hkarner - 29. November 2017

Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics at NYU’s Stern School of Business, Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, Advisory Board Co-Chair of the Asia Global Institute in Hong Kong, and Chair of the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on New Growth Models. He was the chairman of the independent Commission on Growth and Development, an international body that from 2006-2010 analyzed opportunities for global economic growth, and is the author of The Next Convergence – The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World.

The global economy will confront serious challenges in the months and years ahead, and looming in the background is a mountain of debt that makes markets nervous – and that thus increases the system’s vulnerability to destabilizing shocks. Yet the baseline scenario seems to be one of continuity, with no obvious convulsions on the horizon.

HONG KONG – Economists like me are asked a set of recurring questions that might inform the choices of firms, individuals, and institutions in areas like investment, education, and jobs, as well as their policy expectations. In most cases, there is no definitive answer. But, with sufficient information, one can discern trends, in terms of economies, markets, and technology, and make reasonable guesses.

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