Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Archive for Februar 2020

„This Crisis Will Spill Over and Result in a Disaster“

Posted by hkarner - 29. Februar 2020

Date: 28‑02‑2020

Source: DER SPIEGEL Interview Conducted by Tim Bartz

Economist Nouriel Roubini correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis. Now, he believes that stock markets will plunge by 30 to 40 percent because of the coronavirus. And that Trump will lose his re‑election bid.

Economist Roubini: „The markets are completely delusional.“ 

Nouriel Roubini is one of the most prominent and enigmatic economists in the world. He correctly predicted the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble in addition to the 2008 financial crisis along with the ramifications of austerity measures for debt‑laden Greece. Roubini is famous for his daring prognostications and now, he has another one: He believes that coronavirus will lead to a global economic disaster and that U.S. President Donald Trump will not be re‑elected as a result.

DER SPIEGEL: How severe is the coronavirus outbreak for China and for the global economy?

Roubini: This crisis is much more severe for China and the rest of the world than investors have expected for four reasons: First, it is not an epidemic limited to China, but a global pandemic. Second, it is far from being over. This has massive consequences, but politicians don’t realize it.

DER SPIEGEL: What do you mean?

Roubini: Just look at your continent. Europe is afraid of closing its borders, which is a huge mistake. In 2016, in response to the refugee crisis, Schengen was effectively suspended, but this is even worse. The Italian borders should be closed as soon as possible. The situation is much worse than 1 million refugees coming to Europe.

DER SPIEGEL: What are your other two reasons?

Roubini: Everyone believes it’s going to be a V‑shaped recession, but people don’t know what they are talking about. They prefer to believe in miracles. It’s simple math: If the Chinese economy were to shrink by 2 percent in the first quarter, it would require growth of 8 percent in the final three quarters to reach the 6 percent annual growth rate that everyone had expected before the virus broke out. If growth is only 6 percent from the second quarter onwards, which is a more realistic scenario, we would see the Chinese economy only growing by 2.5 to 4 percent for the entire year. This rate would essentially mean a recession for China and a shock to the world. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Vision of AI for Joyful Education

Posted by hkarner - 29. Februar 2020

Date: 28‑02‑2020

Source: Scientific American By Chris Piech, Lisa Einstein

Here’s how we can avert the dangers and maximize the benefits of this powerful but still emerging technology

In a 2013 post, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg sketched out a “rough plan” to provide free, basic internet to the world and thus spread opportunity and interconnection. However, the United Nations Human Rights Council reported that, in Myanmar, Facebook’s efforts to follow through on such aspirations accelerated hate speech, fomented division, and incited offline violence in the Rohingya genocide. Free, basic internet now serves as a warning of the complexities of technological impact on society. For Chris, an AI researcher in education, and Lisa, a science educator and student of international cyber policy, this example gives pause: What unintended consequences could AI in education have?

Many look to AI‑powered tools to address the need to scale high‑quality education and with good reason. A surge in educational content from online courses, expanded access to digital devices, and the contemporary renaissance in AI seem to provide the pieces necessary to deliver personalized learning at scale. However, technology has a poor track record for solving social issues without creating unintended harm. What negative effects can we predict, and how can we refine the objectives of AI researchers to account for such unintended consequences? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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AI Comes to the Tax Code

Posted by hkarner - 28. Februar 2020

Date: 27‑02‑2020

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Governments turn to machine learning to boost revenue as taxpayers seek to reduce their bills

IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig spoke at an agency event in Washington, D.C., in July.

IRVINE, Calif.—Tax cheats, beware: The machines are watching.

Governments are increasingly relying on machine learning and data analytics to analyze troves of data as they seek to detect tax evasion, respond to taxpayers’ questions and make themselves more efficient.

In Brazil, the customs agency’s system for detecting anomalies now prompts more than 30% of inspections. Canada next month will launch Charlie the Chatbot, an automated system that will respond to inquiries about tax filing.

The Internal Revenue Service is designing machine‑built graphs to plot the relationships among participants in business deals, giving auditors a new tool to analyze transactions and detect tax avoidance. The agency is using artificial intelligence to study notes that agency employees take when fielding questions from taxpayers and testing which combinations of formal notices and contacts are most likely to get a taxpayer who owes money to send a check. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Der 3. November 2020 – der Tag der Entscheidung für den Westen

Posted by hkarner - 28. Februar 2020

Joschka Fischer was German Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor from 1998-2005, a term marked by Germany’s strong support for NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999, followed by its opposition to the war in Iraq. Fischer entered electoral politics after participating in the anti-establishment protests of the 1960s and 1970s, and played a key role in founding Germany’s Green Party, which he led for almost two decades.

BERLIN – Das Jahr ist noch jung- und dennoch ist bereits heute seine Bedeutung abzusehen. Es wird ein Jahr der Weichenstellung, zumindest aus westlicher Sicht. Denn am 3. November 2020 findet die wichtigste Entscheidung des Jahres statt, die, soviel lässt sich bereits heute sagen, wahrhaft historische Bedeutung haben wird. An diesem ersten Dienstag im November wählen die USA ihren Präsidenten. 

Amerikanische Präsidentschaftswahlen waren und sind immer wichtig, weil dabei über die Führung der mächtigsten Nation für die Dauer von vier Jahren entschieden wird. Diesmal lautet aber die konkrete Frage, ob der amtierende Amtsinhaber, Donald Trump, wiedergewählt wird oder nicht, er also vier weitere Jahre erhalten wird, um die von Amerika seit den vierziger Jahren erfolgreich geschaffene liberale Weltordnung und deren Allianzen zugunsten eines engstirnigen Nationalismus weiter zu zerstören und am Ende gar die Demokratie und die Gewaltenteilung in den USA selbst zu gefährden. Ob er also das Mandat für vier weitere Jahre der Systemveränderung erhalten wird oder nicht. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Börsen schalten in den Krisenmodus

Posted by hkarner - 27. Februar 2020

Dank an H.G.

Ist die Börsenparty vorbei oder handelt es sich nur um eine kurzzeitige Korrektur?

Die Furcht vor dem Coronavirus beendet die wochenlange Kursrallye. Die Wiener Börse sackt auf ein Vier-Monats-Tief. Dabei könnte das Schlimmste schon ausgestanden sein.

Wien. Ist das der Anfang vom Ende der Börsenparty? Nach exorbitanten Kursgewinnen der vergangenen Wochen sacken die Aktienmärkte in die Verlustzone.

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Wall Street Can’t Burn Bernie

Posted by hkarner - 27. Februar 2020

Jeffrey D. Sachs, Professor of Sustainable Development and Professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University, is Director of Columbia’s Center for Sustainable Development and the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network. His books include The End of Poverty, Common Wealth, The Age of Sustainable Development, Building the New American Economy, and most recently, A New Foreign Policy: Beyond American Exceptionalism.

America’s plutocrats and their media allies are certain that US presidential candidate Bernie Sanders is unelectable, or that, if somehow elected, he would bring about the collapse of the republic. This disdain is both telling and absurd.

NEW YORK – The narcissism and Panglossian cluelessness of the Wall Street elite is a marvel to behold. Sitting on their perches of power, and enjoying tax breaks, easy money, and soaring stock markets, they are certain that all is best in this best of all possible worlds. Critics must be fools or devils.

When I have mentioned my support for US presidential candidate Bernie Sanders in their company, it has been to audible gasps, as if I had invoked Lucifer’s name. They are certain that Sanders is unelectable, or that, if somehow elected, he would bring about the collapse of the republic. To varying degrees, the same sentiments can be found even in “liberal” media outlets like The New York Times and The Washington Post.This disdain is both telling and absurd. In Europe, Sanders would be a mainstream social democrat. He wants to restore some basic decency to American life: universal publicly financed health care; above-poverty wages for full-time workers, along with basic benefits such as family leave for infants and paid leave for illness; college education that does not drive young adults into lifelong debt; elections that billionaires cannot buy; and public policy determined by public opinion, not corporate lobbying (which reached $3.47 billion in the United States in 2019). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Rekordhohe Schulden der Unternehmen bedrohen das globale Finanzsystem

Posted by hkarner - 26. Februar 2020

DWN, 25/2/2020, Dank an H.G.

ddwn

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How to know if artificial intelligence is about to destroy civilization

Posted by hkarner - 26. Februar 2020

Date: 25‑02‑2020

Source: Technology Review by Oren Etzioni

These canaries in the coal mines of AI would be signs that superintelligent robot overlords are approaching

Could we wake up one morning dumbstruck that a super‑powerful AI has emerged, with disastrous consequences? Books like Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom and Life 3.0 by Max Tegmark, as well as more recent articles, argue that malevolent superintelligence is an existential risk for humanity.

But one can speculate endlessly. It’s better to ask a more concrete, empirical question: What would alert us that superintelligence is indeed around the corner?

We might call such harbingers canaries in the coal mines of AI. If an artificial‑

intelligence program develops a fundamental new capability, that’s the equivalent of a canary collapsing: an early warning of AI breakthroughs on the horizon. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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We’re not prepared for the end of Moore’s Law

Posted by hkarner - 25. Februar 2020

Date: 24‑02‑2020

Source: Technology Review by David Rotman

It has fueled prosperity of the last 50 years. But the end is now in sight.

Gordon Moore’s 1965 forecast that the number of components on an integrated circuit would double every year until it reached an astonishing 65,000 by 1975 is the greatest technological prediction of the last half‑century. When it proved correct in 1975, he revised what has become known as Moore’s Law to a doubling of transistors on a chip every two years.

Since then, his prediction has defined the trajectory of technology and, in many ways, of progress itself.

Moore’s argument was an economic one. Integrated circuits, with multiple transistors and other electronic devices interconnected with aluminum metal  lines on a tiny square of silicon wafer, had been invented a few years earlier by Robert Noyce at Fairchild Semiconductor. Moore, the company’s R&D director, realized, as he wrote in 1965, that with these new integrated circuits, “the cost per component is nearly inversely proportional to the number of components.” It was a beautiful bargain—in theory, the more transistors you added, the cheaper each one got. Moore also saw that there was plenty of room for engineering advances to increase the number of transistors you could affordably and reliably put on a chip. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Very Hot Year

Posted by hkarner - 24. Februar 2020

Date: 23‑02‑2020

Source: Bill McKibben

This year began with huge bushfires in southeastern Australia that drove one community after another into temporary exile, killed an estimated billion animals, and turned Canberra’s air into the dirtiest on the planet. The temperatures across the continent broke records—one day, the average high was above 107 degrees, and the humidity so low that forests simply exploded into flames. The photos of the disaster were like something out of Hieronymus Bosch, with crowds gathered on beaches under blood‑red skies, wading into the water as their only refuge from the flames licking nearby. But such scenes are only a chaotic reminder of what is now happening every hour of every day. This year wouldn’t have begun in such a conflagration if 2019 hadn’t been an extremely hot year on our planet—the second‑hottest on record, and the hottest without a big El Niño event to help boost temperatures. And we can expect those numbers to be eclipsed as the decade goes on. Indeed, in mid‑February the temperature at the Argentine research station on the Antarctic Peninsula hit 65 degrees Fahrenheit, crushing the old record for the entire continent.

It is far too late to stop global warming, but these next ten years seem as if they may be our last chance to limit the chaos. If there’s good news, it’s that 2019 was also a hot year politically, with the largest mass demonstrations about climate change taking place around the world.

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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