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Archive for 24. Dezember 2019

The Crisis of 2020

Posted by hkarner - 24. Dezember 2019

Stephen S. Roach, a faculty member at Yale University and former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.

It doesn’t take much to spark corrections in vulnerable economies and markets, and big shocks to highly vulnerable systems are a recipe for crisis. That’s why the vulnerability of today’s global economy – reflected in real economies, financial asset prices, and misguided monetary policy – needs to be taken seriously.

NEW HAVEN – Predicting the next crisis – financial or economic – is a fool’s game. Yes, every crisis has its hero who correctly warned of what was about to come. And, by definition, the hero was ignored (hence the crisis). But the record of modern forecasting contains a note of caution: those who correctly predict a crisis rarely get it right again.

Despite the latest Sino-American „skinny deal“ to ease tensions over trade, technology, and other issues, it is now clear that the world’s two largest economies have entered a new era of sustained competition. How the relationship will evolve depends greatly on America’s political leadership – which does not bode well. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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