Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Archive for Oktober 2019

Europe Is Hiring—But Its Workforce Isn’t Ready

Posted by hkarner - 31. Oktober 2019

Date: 30-10-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Businesses ready to pay skilled workers can’t find enough candidates, a ‘top issue’ across the EU

Barbara Colombo sells complex machinery made at her family’s factory to businesses in 126 countries but is still having trouble convincing unemployed young Italians to get skills so they can join the workforce.

Though every third young Italian is jobless, Ms. Colombo’s Ficep SpA and other companies in this thriving industrial region near Milan are struggling to fill well-paying factory jobs. The local vocational school, because of low enrollment, had only 80 graduates when nearby companies asked for about 300 last year, she said.
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The Global Informal Economy: Large but On The Decline

Posted by hkarner - 31. Oktober 2019

By Thomas F. Alexander

The informal economy, which is economic activity that falls outside the regulated economy and tax system, such as street vending or unregistered taxi drivers, is hard to measure.

People and companies engaged in the informal economy usually operate on a small scale. This means there are no official statistics on the informal or shadow economy, as it’s sometimes called, so economists need to estimate its size. Some common techniques include surveys or indirect indicators such as the demand for currency.

The size of the informal economy—measured as a share of GDP—has fallen gradually across all regions.

Our chart of the week, based on an updated version of earlier IMF research, shows that the size of the informal economy—measured as a share of GDP—has fallen gradually across all regions. While reforms to reduce informality, such as reducing the hurdles to registering a business, are working, the shift from informal to formal takes time. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Boris Johnson’s Brexit Election

Posted by hkarner - 31. Oktober 2019

Date: 30-10-2019

Source: The Wall Street Journal By The Editorial Board

Corbyn could win if the Tories fail to offer a vision of Greater Britain.

Boris Johnson on Tuesday finally cajoled Britain’s reluctant Parliament to call a December general election to try to settle Brexit. It’s a brave and desperate gamble—and one that will work only if he runs a campaign persuading voters to embrace a Brexit vision bigger than the divorce deal he needs a new Parliament to pass.

Britain’s recent Brexit miseries have arisen from the hung Parliament elected after Theresa May’s disastrous 2017 bid for a larger majority. Mrs.

May’s big-government-conservative campaign left voters confused about what improvements either Brexit or a Conservative government could bring.

She barely held on in tenuous alliance with a Northern Ireland unionist party that caused her to adopt impractical red lines on trade policy in Brexit talks with the European Union, and her Brexit deal failed in Parliament. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Stop Inflating the Inflation Threat

Posted by hkarner - 30. Oktober 2019

J. Bradford DeLong is Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was Deputy Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton Administration, where he was heavily involved in budget and trade negotiations. His role in designing the bailout of Mexico during the 1994 peso crisis placed him at the forefront of Latin America’s transformation into a region of open economies, and cemented his stature as a leading voice in economic-policy debates.

Given the scale and severity of inflation in America in the 1970s, it is understandable that US monetary policymakers developed a deep-seated fear of it. But, nearly a half-century later, the conditions that justified such worries no longer apply, and it is past time that we stopped denying what the data are telling us.

BERKELEY – In light of current macroeconomic conditions in the United States, I’ve found myself thinking back to September 2014. That month, the US unemployment rate dropped below 6%, and a broad range of commentators assured us that inflation would soon be on the rise, as predicted by the Phillips curve. The corollary of this argument, of course, was that the US Federal Reserve should begin rapidly normalizing monetary policy, shrinking the monetary base and raising interest rates back into a “normal” range.

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Some thank Zhou Enlai for saving China from Mao’s excesses

Posted by hkarner - 30. Oktober 2019

Date: 29-10-2019
Source: The Economist

A new opera about the late prime minister shows the party has a different view

China’s grandest music academy this month unveiled a full-length, Western-style opera about Zhou Enlai. The puzzle is that it took this long. Opera is arguably the only art form big enough to capture the contradictions of this brilliant moral failure of a man, Mao Zedong’s prime minister for over a quarter century.

When Zhou died in 1976 he was beloved by Chinese who did not know him well. Vast throngs of Beijingers filled Tiananmen Square in the spring of that year to mourn him, risking arrests and police beatings to remember a leader they credited with moderating the worst excesses of that fanatical era. Their lamentations were also a coded attack on ultra-leftist zealots who were circling the ailing Mao, now that Zhou was gone. Some praise was merited. Papers published after his death show Zhou reporting rural starvation to the chairman—though without identifying the famine’s cause, namely Mao’s own policies. Documents show Zhou working to rehabilitate purged scientists and officials, if only because China’s economy needed competent managers. To this day, locals across China will point to a beloved temple and thank the former prime minister, often without hard evidence, for issuing orders that shielded the site from Red Guards. China’s music world owes Zhou a debt for encouraging propaganda works of some artistic merit, such as the revolutionary opera “The East is Red”, and for protecting performers from vicious cultural commissars. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Negativzinsen: Warum die Zinswelt auf dem Kopf steht

Posted by hkarner - 30. Oktober 2019

Wie kann es dazu kommen, dass jemand freiwillig Geld dafür zahlt, um es an andere verborgen zu können? Wer zu dem Phänomen Negativzinsen beiträgt

Alexander Hahn, derstandard.at

Naturwissenschafter haben es gut. Sie müssen – im Gegensatz zu ihren auf Wirtschaft spezialisierten Kollegen – nicht befürchten, dass sich die Schwerkraft plötzlich umkehrt.

Eine vorübergehende Marktanomalie – so dachten die meisten Finanzexperten, nachdem vor etwas mehr als fünf Jahren die Rendite zweijähriger deutscher Bundesanleihen ins Minus abgerutscht war. Welch grundlegende Fehleinschätzung, denn die Zinswelt steht auch heute noch auf dem Kopf. Heuer lagen nicht nur deutsche Staatspapiere aller Laufzeiten bis zu 30 Jahren im Spätsommer im negativen Terrain. Insgesamt wiesen zu diesem Zeitpunkt weltweit Anleihen mit einem Gesamtvolumen von 15 Billionen Euro eine Negativrendite auf. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Allure and Limits of Monetized Fiscal Deficits

Posted by hkarner - 30. Oktober 2019

Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

With the global economy experiencing a synchronized slowdown, any number of tail risks could bring on an outright recession. When that happens, policymakers will almost certainly pursue some form of central-bank-financed stimulus, regardless of whether the situation calls for it.

NEW YORK – A cloud of gloom hovered over the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting this month. With the global economy experiencing a synchronized slowdown, any number of tail risks could bring on an outright recession. Among other things, investors and economic policymakers a renewed escalation in the Sino-American trade and technology war. A military conflict between the United States and Iran would be felt globally. The same could be true of “hard” Brexit by the United Kingdom or a collision between the IMF and Argentina’s incoming Peronist government. 

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The Silence of the Republican Lambs

Posted by hkarner - 30. Oktober 2019

Nina L. Khrushcheva is Professor of International Affairs at The New School. Her latest book (with Jeffrey Tayler) is In Putin’s Footsteps: Searching for the Soul of an Empire Across Russia’s Eleven Time Zones.

Even as Donald Trump’s presidency fast approaches the abyss, leading members of the Republican Party have stayed largely silent. As the Soviet dissident poet Alexander Galich wrote in the 1960s, “Keep silent, you will be on top.”

NEW YORK – In the 1960s, the dissident poet Alexander Galich wrote about the mute complicity of Soviet apparatchiks in Joseph Stalin’s crimes, notably the Great Purges in which millions were detained or died in the Gulag. “Those who were silent became the bosses, because silence is gold,” Galich wrote. “Keep silent, you will be on top.”

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The long Brexit ordeal will finish off the break-up of Britain

Posted by hkarner - 29. Oktober 2019

Date: 28-10-2019
Source: The Guardian by Neal Ascherson

The referendum didn’t so much create new divisions as rediscover old ones – but three years of wrangling have broken the bonds of union

This is the sound of British politics. A crescendo rumble, a deafening crash, a four-letter word. The blond skateboard king from behind the cycle shed, his shirt-tails flapping, has fallen off yet again. Unfortunately, the cracked pavement under his wheels is called Britain, or optimistically the United Kingdom, and he and his mates have been pounding it to destruction for more than three years.

In that time, the Brexit ordeal has changed Britain. Not as much as some think. Many of these changes, above all the English sense of powerlessness and resentment of elites, were already gathering speed 10 years ago, as Europe and the world crawled out of the banking disaster. Brexit disputes only accelerated them. The 2016 referendum didn’t so much create new divisions within England as rediscover old ones, especially in its aftermath. It was almost laughable that so few remain voters knew a leaver, or vice versa. England is still a country astonishingly segregated by class, by location, by attitudes towards power and privilege. Before the last war ended, the doomed fighter pilot Richard Hillary asked: “Was there perhaps a new race of Englishmen arising out of this war, a harmonious synthesis of the governing class and the great rest of England?” No, there wasn’t. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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As Stocks Hover Near Highs, Past Pullbacks Worry Investors

Posted by hkarner - 29. Oktober 2019

Date: 28-10-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Muted moves in S&P 500 highlight investor fears that stock market’s gains could be limited

The possibility of another round of tariffs in December continues to fuel investor caution, offsetting some of the optimism about lower interest rates around the world.

Stocks are flirting with record territory but have been stuck in a narrow trading range since the beginning of last year, leaving investors grasping for a fresh driver that could propel the decadelong bull market to even greater heights.

The S&P 500 made a run at its all-time high of 3025.86 Friday but came up just short, closing up 0.4% at 3022.55. Hopes for lower interest rates and a resolution to the long-simmering trade dispute between the U.S. and China have pushed the broad equity gauge up 21% for the year.

But most of the index’s gains came in the first four months of 2019, following a brutal selloff in last year’s fourth quarter. Stocks have treaded water lately, averaging a daily move of 0.4% or less in five of the past seven weeks. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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