Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Archive for 20. September 2019

David Cameron’s alternative memoirs

Posted by hkarner - 20. September 2019

Date: 19-09-2019
Source: The Economist Bagehot

This week the former prime minister published his memoirs. Here we print an extract from the book he might have written had he won the referendum

A friend once asked Margaret Thatcher what she would do differently if she had her time again. After a pause for thought, she replied: “I think I did pretty well the first time.” I don’t feel quite the same way. I was wrong to withdraw Conservative meps from the European Parliament’s centre-right alliance. I was wrong to surround myself with so many chums from school and university. On reflection the “Big Society” contained too much hot air. But I do pride myself on one thing: I left behind a country that was far more at ease with itself than the one I inherited.

The reason for this was the defining act of my career, the Brexit referendum of 2016. After the result was announced, the pundit class assured me with one voice that I didn’t deserve any credit for doing the blindingly obvious. “Mr Cameron was confronted with an open goal,” the Times editorialised. “All he did was kick the ball.” These were often the same people who, before the vote, had informed me that I risked unleashing monsters. I can only say that the referendum didn’t feel like an open goal at the time. The campaign tore the country apart and strained some of my closest friendships. And the result was worryingly close. I sometimes torment myself, in my more masochistic moments, by imagining what might have happened had it gone the other way! Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Global Growth to Hit Decade Low Amid U.S.-China Trade War

Posted by hkarner - 20. September 2019

Date: 19-09-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

OECD expects growth to remain low in 2020 and possibly beyond if the trade conflict spills over

A man works at a steel production facility in Sichuan province, China.

The global economy is set to grow at the slowest pace since the financial crisis,
with business investment and trade hampered by an escalating dispute between the U.S. and China that could inflict even more damage over coming years, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Thursday.

The Paris-based research body said it now expects world output of goods and services to increase by 2.9% this year, the smallest annual rise since 2009 when the global economy was pushed into a recession by the near-collapse of the financial system. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Economic Consequences of Automation

Posted by hkarner - 20. September 2019

Robert Skidelsky, a member of the British House of Lords, is Professor Emeritus of Political Economy at Warwick University. The author of a three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes, he began his political career in the Labour party, became the Conservative Party’s spokesman for Treasury affairs in the House of Lords, and was eventually forced out of the Conservative Party for his opposition to NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999.

Economic theory does not provide a clear answer regarding the overall impact of technological progress on jobs. And even if automation has traditionally been beneficial in the long run, policymakers should never ignore its disruptive short-term effects on workers.

LONDON – While Brexit captures the headlines in the United Kingdom and elsewhere, the silent march of automation continues. Most economists view this trend favorably: technology, they say, may destroy jobs in the short run, but it creates new and better jobs in the longer term.

The destruction of jobs is clear and direct: a firm automates a conveyor belt, supermarket checkout, or delivery system, keeps one-tenth of the workforce as supervisors, and fires the rest. But what happens after that is far less obvious.The standard economic argument is that workers affected by automation will initially lose their jobs, but the population as a whole will subsequently be compensated. For example, the Nobel laureate economist Christopher Pissarides and Jacques Bughin of the McKinsey Global Institute that higher productivity resulting from automation “implies faster economic growth, more consumer spending, increased labor demand, and thus greater job creation.Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Digital Currencies: The Rise of Stablecoins

Posted by hkarner - 20. September 2019

By Tobias Adrian and Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli

A battle is raging for your wallet. New entrants want to occupy the space once used by paper bills or your debit card.

The adoption of new, digital payment methods could bring significant benefits to customers and society: improved efficiency, greater competition, broader financial inclusion, and more innovation. But it could invite risks to financial stability and integrity, monetary policy effectiveness, and competition standards, as outlined in a recent IMF staff paper, the first of a new series of Fintech Notes.

Adoption of new forms of money will depend on their attractiveness as a store of value and means of payment.

Stablecoin adoption

Adoption of new forms of money will depend on their attractiveness as a store of value and a means of payment. New entrants like stablecoins, however, are significantly different from the popular incumbents: cash or bank deposits.

While many stablecoins continue to be claims on the issuing institution or its underlying assets, and many also offer redemption guarantees at face value (a coin bought for 10 euros can be exchanged back for a 10-euro note, like a bank account), government-backing is absent. Trust must be generated privately by backing coin issuance with safe and liquid assets. And the settlement technology is usually decentralized, based on the blockchain model. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The climate issue

Posted by hkarner - 20. September 2019

Date: 19-09-2019
Source: The Economist

Climate change touches everything this newspaper reports on. It must be tackled urgently and clear-headedly

From one year to the next, you cannot feel the difference. As the decades stack up, though, the story becomes clear. The stripes on our cover represent the world’s average temperature in every year since the mid-19th century. Dark blue years are cooler and red ones warmer than the average in 1971-2000. The cumulative change jumps out. The world is about 1ºC hotter than when this newspaper was young.

To represent this span of human history as a set of simple stripes may seem reductive. These are years which saw world wars, technological innovation, trade on an unprecedented scale and a staggering creation of wealth. But those complex histories and the simplifying stripes share a common cause. The changing climate of the planet and the remarkable growth in human numbers and riches both stem from the combustion of billions of tonnes of fossil fuel to produce industrial power, electricity, transport, heating and, more recently, computation.

All around us
That the changing climate touches everything and everyone should be obvious—as it should be that the poor and marginalised have most to lose when the weather turns against them. What is less obvious, but just as important, is that, because the processes that force climate change are built into the foundations of the world economy and of geopolitics, measures to check climate change have to be similarly wide-ranging and all-encompassing. To decarbonise an economy is not a simple subtraction; it requires a near-complete overhaul. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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