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Archive for 15. August 2019

Salvinis „Italexit“-Drohung Der Mann, der den Euro zerstören könnte

Posted by hkarner - 15. August 2019

Matteo Salvini will italienischer Premierminister werden – im Wahlkampf kokettiert der Rechtspopulist mit dem Euro-Austritt. An den Finanzmärkten sorgt er damit für Entsetzen.

Von Hans-Jürgen Schlamp, Rom, Spiegel.de

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Matteo Salvini: Dogmen und Vorschriften aus Brüssel sind „nicht heilig“
Dienstag, 13.08.2019 19:22 Uhr

Es ist wieder so weit: Die nächste Italien-Krise rollt an. An der Mailänder Börse sind die Aktienkurse in den vergangenen Tagen kräftig gefallen, vor allem jene von italienischen Banken und von Unternehmen, die weitgehend auf den Inlandsmarkt ausgerichtet sind. Post, Telekom, Gas. Die Anleger sind hochnervös.

Der berühmte „Spread“ steigt wieder. Das heißt: Italiens Finanzminister Giovanni Tria muss derzeit für eine Schuldverschreibung mit zehnjähriger Laufzeit dem Käufer 1,7 Prozent Zinsen bieten. Deutschlands Finanzminister Olaf Scholz bekommt dagegen von jedem, der seine Staatsanleihen haben will, noch 0,6 Prozent Zinsen dazu. Geradezu verlockend für einen Finanzminister, aber Scholz will eigentlich gar keine neuen Schulden machen.

Der parteilose Kollege in Rom dagegen soll viele, sehr viele neue Kredite aufnehmen. So will es seine gerade auseinanderfliegende Regierung, vor allem der kleinere, aber weit durchsetzungsstärkere Partner, die rechte Lega von Matteo Salvini. Dabei gehört Italien längst zu den Ländern mit der weltweit höchsten Schuldenquote. Um fast 40 Prozent sind die Staatsschulden in den vergangenen zehn Jahren gestiegen, auf etwa 2,32 Billionen Euro im vorigen Jahr. Das entspricht 132 Prozent der jährlichen Wirtschaftskraft des Landes. Nur Griechenland ist in Europa noch schlimmer dran. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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What comes after Bretton Woods II?

Posted by hkarner - 15. August 2019

   Date: 14-08-2019
Source: The Economist: Free exchange

The world’s monetary system is breaking down

“THERE IS no longer any need for the United States to compete with one hand tied behind her back,” Richard Nixon, then America’s president, told his countrymen in August 1971. With that speech, he heralded the end of the postwar economic order, suspending the convertibility of the dollar into gold and putting up tariffs on imports. The survival of today’s order, which emerged from the chaos that followed, now looks increasingly in doubt. In other circumstances, its demise might not have been mourned. But with each passing August day, the prospects for a happy shift from one global monetary regime to another look ever grimmer.

The seemingly simple act of trading across borders is complicated by the fact that most countries have their own currencies, which move in idiosyncratic ways. Governments’ efforts to manage these wobbles are constrained by certain trade-offs. Pegging currencies to an external anchor to stabilise their value means either ceding control of domestic economic policy or restricting access to flows of foreign capital. Systems of monetary order, which resolve these trade-offs in one way as opposed to another, work until they do not. The context for America’s economic showdown with China is a system that worked once but no longer does. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Last Exit Before a Cold War?

Posted by hkarner - 15. August 2019

Date: 14-08-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.

What China would say if it really understood President Trump’s ideas about trade.

For the eyes of Donald Trump only, a secret letter from China’s worried maximum leader, Xi Jinping :

Dear Donald,

As the mice and men in your country would have predicted, our little trade negotiation has gone awry. If I am forced to take measures in Hong Kong, it may be a long time before we can talk again. So let us settle things now.

Your negotiators keep bringing me demands that I cannot fulfill. They want me to reorganize the Chinese economy. They want me to relinquish many kinds of control necessary to the Communist Party.

Donald, who are these proposals even aimed at? If I understand how American bureaucracy works, I think maybe they are aimed at you. Your assistants want you to adopt the bureaucracy’s trade policy instead of your own. Your trade officer Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin can’t even guarantee you will withdraw your tariffs, which should be the starting point of any negotiation. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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German Economy Contracts as Global Trade Battle Bites

Posted by hkarner - 15. August 2019

Date: 14-08-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Decline in GDP indicates that Europe’s largest economy has now become a drag on the region

Germany’s economy shrank slightly in the second quarter, rekindling fears of a recession and underscoring how Europe’s industrial core is suffering from the uncertainty caused by the U.S.-China trade dispute.

Economists and the government have cited the tensions between Beijing and Washington and the possibility of Britain leaving the European Union without a negotiated settlement as the main reasons for the cooling of Germany’s export-driven economy.

Analysts said the downturn should be a wake-up call for European policy makers to consider measures to stimulate activity in the region. Berlin, which has generated a budget surplus for the past five years, has been under pressure for months to loosen its strict fiscal policy to energize demand at home and in neighboring countries. The government has resisted any bold move so far, though is planning modest tax cuts and is working on its version of the Green New Deal, to be unveiled this fall. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Despite What You Might Think, Major Technological Changes Are Coming More Slowly Than They Once Did

Posted by hkarner - 15. August 2019

Date: 14-08-2019
Source: Scientific American By Wade Roush

Major technological shifts are fewer and farther between than they once were

On June 22, 1927, Charles Lindbergh flew into Dayton, Ohio, for dinner at Orville Wright’s house. It had been just a month since the young aviator’s first ever solo nonstop crossing of the Atlantic, and he felt he ought to pay his respects to the celebrated pioneer of flight.

Forty-two years later, on July 16, 1969, Apollo 11 astronaut Neil Armstrong was allowed to bring a personal guest to the Kennedy Space Center to witness the launch of NASA’s towering Saturn V rocket. Armstrong invited his hero, Charles Lindbergh.

That’s how fast technology advanced in the 20th century. One man, Lindbergh, could be the living link between the pilot of the first powered flight and the commander of the first mission to another world.

In our century, for better or worse, progress isn’t what it used to be. Northwestern University economist Robert Gordon argues that by 1970, all the key technologies of modern life were in place: sanitation, electricity, mechanized agriculture, highways, air travel, telecommunications, and the like. After that, innovation and economic growth simply couldn’t keep going at the breakneck pace set over the preceding 100 years—a period Gordon calls “the special century.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Fuel for Thought: Ditch the Subsidies

Posted by hkarner - 15. August 2019

Pensions, education, healthcare, better infrastructure, technology, and climate change: fiscal policymakers have their work cut out for them on many fronts.  Whether you live in a rapidly aging advanced economy,  or a low-income or emerging market economy with a young, booming population, all these issues matter for you.

As the Fiscal Monitor in April 2019 shows, government policies on taxes and spending have to adapt and should shift to growth-enhancing investment.  This means, for example, more money to build classrooms, hospitals and roads, while cutting wasteful spending, such as inefficient energy subsidies.

Removing fossil fuel subsidies, which typically benefit the rich more than the poor, could gain up to 4 percent of global GDP.

Our chart of the week shows that removing fossil fuel subsidies, which typically benefit the rich more than the poor, could gain up to 4 percent of global GDP in additional resources over the medium term to invest in people, growth, and help protect the most vulnerable. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Deutschlands Digitale Rezession

Posted by hkarner - 15. August 2019

Sollte es wirklich eine Rezession geben, wird die deutsche Wirtschaft zwar schnell Donald Trump als Schuldigen identifizieren. Aber die eigenen Versäumnisse wird sie ausblenden wie bisher.

https://www.spiegel.de/netzwelt/web/rezession-droht-deutschland-ohne-digitale-innovation-sascha-lobo-kolumne-a-1281847.html

Die Verantwortung dafür tragen die seit gefühlt 62 Jahren herrschenden Regierungen Merkel, die – ganz genauso wie die deutschen Unternehmen – noch stets andere Prioritäten hatten als offensive, zukunftsgewandte Investition.

Systematische Fehlentwicklungen haben einen riesigen Investitionsstau in Deutschlands Städten und Gemeinden anschwellen lassen. Um das Problem zu lösen, reicht selbst ein einmaliges Sonderprogramm nicht mehr aus. Vielmehr müssen strukturschwache Kommunen langfristig und generell finanziell ertüchtigt werden – doch einer solchen Lösung steht die Schuldenbremse im Weg. Ein Beitrag von Jens Südekum. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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