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Archive for 12. August 2019

Verstummtes Orakel: Warum US-Anlageguru Warren Buffett die Wall Street meidet

Posted by hkarner - 12. August 2019

Buffett befindet sich im Investmentstreik, weil ihm die Preise der Firmen zu hoch sind. Und weil er dem Wirtschaftsboom unter Trump offenbar nicht traut

Alexander Hahn, derstandard.at

Warren Buffett, auch als Orakel von Omaha bekannt, findet keine passenden Unternehmen für eine Investition.

Offenbar hat das Orakel von Omaha nach zehn Jahren Börsenboom das Vertrauen in den Aufschwung verloren – der US-Anlageguru Warren Buffett investiert nicht mehr. Stattdessen häuft seine Investmentholding Berkshire Hathaway, einst aus einer Textilfirma entstanden, immer mehr Cashreserven an. Neuer Rekordstand Mitte des Geschäftsjahres 2019: beachtliche 122 Milliarden US-Dollar.

Dabei ist der 88-Jährige nicht ganz freiwillig in den Investmentstreik getreten. „Wir suchen weiter nach dem einen Mammutdeal“, hatte Buffett noch im Mai die Berkshire-Hathaway-Aktionäre in der Hauptversammlung wissen lassen – allein, in Zeiten, in denen die Bewertungen „in den Himmel ragen“, wird selbst ein Starinvestor wie Buffett nicht so leicht fündig.

Ein Auge zugedrückt

Dabei hat der an sich sehr preisbewusste Investor in früheren Boomphasen schon einmal bei etwas höheren Kursen ein Auge zugedrückt – allerdings nur, wenn er von der Qualität eines Unternehmens und des wirtschaftlichen Aufschwungs überzeugt war. Denn als sogenannten Value-Investor gelten für ihn folgende Grundsätze: Der Börsenpreis eines Unternehmens muss unter seinem inneren Wert liegen, und das Geschäftsmodell der Firma muss leicht verständlich sein.

Auf dieser Basis sammelte der aus Omaha im US-Bundesstaat Nebraska stammende Investor seit seiner Übernahme von Berkshire Hathaway in den 1960er-Jahren kontinuierlich große Aktienbestände von Unternehmen an, darunter klingende Namen der US-Wirtschaft wie American Express, Coca-Cola oder Gillette.

Markige Sprüche

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Huawei Unveils Android Replacement Following U.S. Ban

Posted by hkarner - 12. August 2019

Date: 11-08-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Chinese tech giant says it prefers to continue using Google’s Android operating system

DONGGUAN, China—Huawei Technologies Co. offered the first details about the operating system designed to replace Google’s Android on its smartphones, as the Chinese technology giant races to develop backups to American technology following its U.S. blacklisting.

Huawei’s new operating system, called HarmonyOS, is intended to run on all of Huawei’s consumer gadgets, including its hugely popular smartphones, which run Android and have taken a sales hit overseas since its May blacklisting, said Richard Yu, the head of Huawei’s consumer-device business.

Huawei prefers to continue using Android, the world’s most popular smartphone operating system, on the company’s smartphones, Mr. Yu said. But Huawei could switch its handsets to HarmonyOS “in just one or two days” if it had to. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump’s Deficit Economy

Posted by hkarner - 12. August 2019

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. He is the author, most recently, of People, Power, and Profits: Progressive Capitalism for an Age of Discontent (W.W. Norton and Allen Lane).

Economists have repeatedly tried to explain to Donald Trump that trade agreements may affect which countries the US buys from and sells to, but not the magnitude of the overall deficit. But, as usual, Trump believes what he wants to believes, leaving those who can least afford it to pay the price.

NEW YORK – In the new world wrought by US President Donald Trump, where one shock follows another, there is never time to think through fully the implications of the events with which we are bombarded. In late July, the Federal Reserve Board reversed its policy of returning interest rates to more normal levels, after a decade of ultra-low rates in the wake of the Great Recession. Then, the United States had another two mass gun killings in under 24 hours, bringing the total for the year to 255 – more than one a day. And a trade war with China, which Trump had tweeted would be “good, and easy to win,” entered a new, more dangerous phase, rattling markets and posing the threat of a new cold war. 

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The Real Reason for China’s Rise

Posted by hkarner - 12. August 2019

Zhang Jun is Dean of the School of Economics at Fudan University and Director of the China Center for Economic Studies, a Shanghai-based think-tank.

The standard account of China’s economic rise focuses on its state capitalism, whereby the government, endowed with huge assets, can pursue a wide-ranging industrial policy and intervene to mitigate risks. This explanation is wrong.

SHANGHAI – China’s rapid economic rise in recent decades has astonished the world. Yet the reasons behind the country’s success are often misunderstood and misinterpreted.

The rise of China widely attributed to its state capitalism, whereby the government, endowed with huge assets, can pursue a wide-ranging industrial policy and intervene to mitigate risks. Accordingly, China owes its success, first and foremost, to the government’s “control” over the entire economy.This explanation is fundamentally wrong. True, China has benefited from having a government with the capacity to implement comprehensive and complementary policies efficiently. With leaders not subject to the short election cycles that characterize Western democracies, China’s central leadership can engage in visionary and comprehensive long-term planning, exemplified by its Five-Year Plans.Moreover, the Chinese state’s power has buttressed its implementation capacity, which dwarfs that of most developing and transitional economies. A strong state – and the social and political stability that it underpins – has been essential to enable China’s rapid advancement in areas like education, health care, infrastructure, and research and development. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The very idea of a united kingdom is being torn apart by toxic nationalism

Posted by hkarner - 12. August 2019

Date: 11-08-2019
Source: The Guardian: Gordon Brown

Boris Johnson’s Brexit strategy is imperilling centuries of common purpose. It can’t be allowed to succeed

Pro-EU and pro-independence groups protest during the Conservative leadership hustings in Perth, Scotland, in July 2019.

The first step to solving a problem is to see it clearly. And if we are to understand why we are facing not only our most serious constitutional crisis since the 17th century but an unprecedented economic calamity precipitated by a no-deal exit from the EU, we must recognise that nationalism is now driving British politics.

Having set almost impossible terms for any negotiation with Europe and preparing to renege on legal obligations to pay our debts to the EU – the economic equivalent of a declaration of war – Boris Johnson’s government is hell-bent on conjuring up the absurd and mendacious image of the patriotic British valiantly defying an intransigent Europe determined to turn us into a vassal state.

His soundbites, pledging token sums for the NHS and 20,000 more police on the street at some future date, cannot disguise a government driven not by the national interest but by a destructive, populist, nationalist ideology. And with Scottish nationalists pushing a more extreme form of separation and Northern Ireland’s unionists becoming, paradoxically, Northern Irish nationalists – digging in, even if it means, against all economic logic, a hard border with the Irish Republic – we are, at best, only a precariously united kingdom. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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