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Archive for 28. Juli 2019

Die Krise der angloamerikanischen Demokratie

Posted by hkarner - 28. Juli 2019

Jeffrey D. Sachs, Professor of Sustainable Development and Professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University, is Director of Columbia’s Center for Sustainable Development and of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network. His books include The End of Poverty, Common Wealth, The Age of Sustainable Development, Building the New American Economy, and most recently, A New Foreign Policy: Beyond American Exceptionalism.

NEW YORK – Wie kann es sein, dass in den zwei ehrwürdigsten und einflussreichsten Demokratien der Welt – dem Vereinigten Königreich und den Vereinigten Staaten –  Donald Trump und Boris Johnson an die Macht kommen? Trump liegt nicht falsch, wenn er Johnson als „Britain Trump” (sic) bezeichnet. Es geht auch nicht um eine Frage ähnlicher Persönlichen oder Stile: vielmehr ist diese Entwicklung Ausdruck eklatanter Mängel in den politischen Institutionen, die es diesen Männern ermöglichten, das Ruder zu übernehmen. 

Sowohl Trump als auch Johnson weisen eine von dem irischen Physiker und Psychologen Ian Hughes so bezeichnete gestörte Psyche” auf. Trump ist ein notorischer Lügner, ein Verbreiter des Rassismus und Steuerhinterzieher in großem Stil. Im Bericht des US-Sonderermittlers Robert Mueller über seine 22-monatige Untersuchung des Trumpschen Präsidentschaftswahlkampfs im Jahr 2016 werden mehrere Fälle von Behinderung der Justiz durch Trump beschrieben. Über 20 Frauen beschuldigen Trump sexueller Übergriffe, mit denen er auf Band auch prahlt. Trump wies seinen Anwalt an, illegale Schweigegeldzahlungen zu tätigen, die einen Verstoß gegen die Bestimmungen für Wahlkampffinanzierung darstellen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Boris Johnson plans to frighten Europe then charm it. Here’s why he’ll fail

Posted by hkarner - 28. Juli 2019

Date: 27-07-2019
Source: The Guardian by Jonathan Powell

I spent 10 years negotiating with EU leaders. They don’t trust him, and simply won’t be fooled by his bluster

‘Johnson’s Tinkerbell delusion is about to be tested on the wheel of harsh reality.’

The new prime minister insists blind ambition is enough. Like Peter Pan, if we do believe, we do, we do, then it will come true. We can have a new exit deal with the European Union within 99 days without the “undemocratic” Irish backstop because he wills it so. This Tinkerbell delusion is about to be tested on the wheel of harsh reality when Boris Johnson goes to meet his European colleagues. But even his first step has backfired. When he, unwisely, upped the ante by making refusal of the Irish border backstop a precondition for talks, the EU negotiator Michel Barnier immediately rejected the move. Now Johnson will have to back down even to get a meeting.

The prime minister’s strategy, however, remains clear: he will combine public threats and private charm. First, he will frighten Europe by giving every impression of going hell for leather for a no-deal Brexit. He has certainly appointed the right team to frighten them – Dominic Raab, Michael Gove and Dominic Cummings. Like us, EU leaders have seen the movie. And then he hopes the leaders will melt in the face of his personal charm when he comes to visit them.

Bluster and bullshit is fine in the public domain but in the Kanzleramt, it will count for nothing Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why predicting the impact of a no-deal Brexit is so hard

Posted by hkarner - 28. Juli 2019

Date: 27-07-2019
Source: The Economist

Estimates of the economic effects of no-deal on GDP are varied

Apart from Economists for Free Trade (eft), a pro-Brexit group, almost no wonks believe that leaving the eu without a deal would be good for the economy. The majority flinch when Boris Johnson, the new prime minister, promises that Britain will push off by October 31st “come what may”. Yet the question of just how bad a no-deal Brexit would be has many answers.

On July 18th the Office for Budget Responsibility (obr), the fiscal watchdog, warned that a no-deal exit would “push the economy into recession”. The next day Oxford Economics argued that “no-deal Brexit might be bad, but not obr bad.” Capital Economics, another consultancy, wrote last year that in its central no-deal scenario “we don’t expect…a full-blown recession.” Estimates of the long-term effect on gdp are even more varied (see chart).

If Britain leaves without a deal it will become a member of the World Trade Organisation on its own, not as part of the eu. Britain would generally have to charge the same tariffs on eu imports as on non-eu ones. Regulations governing everything from medicines to electricity connections to financial services could lapse. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Boris Johnson’s confusing and contradictory religious history

Posted by hkarner - 28. Juli 2019

Date: 28-07-2019
Source: The Economist

From the Roman to the Abrahamic, the prime minister’s spiritual history is a mess

BRITAIN’S RELIGIOUS leaders, a relatively small and embattled community in an ever more secular land, are wondering what to make of Boris Johnson. As with many areas of his chaotic life, the new prime minister’s spiritual antecedents, and his present convictions, are a bundle of contrasts and confusion.

In a nutshell, he has Muslim, Jewish and Christian ancestors. He was christened a Catholic by his mother. He was confirmed in the Anglican faith (thus formally lapsing from Catholicism) while attending Eton College, Britain’s poshest school. In 2015 he told an interviewer it would be “pretentious” to call himself a “serious, practising Christian”. But as a guest on “Desert Island Discs”, a BBC radio programme in which celebrities imagine themselves as castaways, he said he would “sing a few hymns and march up and down” to keep his morale up. On the other hand, none of the music he chose to have played on the show was spiritual: it ranged from Brahms to punk-rock. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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