Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Archive for Juli 2019

Who Will Win the Twenty-First Century?

Posted by hkarner - 31. Juli 2019

Joschka Fischer was German Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor from 1998-2005, a term marked by Germany’s strong support for NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999, followed by its opposition to the war in Iraq. Fischer entered electoral politics after participating in the anti-establishment protests of the 1960s and 1970s, and played a key role in founding Germany’s Green Party, which he led for almost two decades.

For years, Europeans were lulled into thinking that the peace and prosperity of the immediate post-Cold War period would be self-sustaining. But, two decades into the twenty-first century, it is clear that the Old Continent miscalculated and now must catch up to the digital revolution. 

BERLIN – The first two decades of the twenty-first century are beginning to cast a long shadow over the Western world. We have come a long way since the turn of the century, when people everywhere, but particularly in Europe, indulgently embraced the “end of history.” 

According to that illusory notion, the West’s victory in the Cold War – the last of the three great wars of the twentieth century – had given rise to a global order for which there could be no alternatives. Thenceforth, it was thought, world history would march steadily toward the universalization of Western-style democracy and the market economy.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Das Ende der EZB Zurückhaltung

Posted by hkarner - 31. Juli 2019

Hans-Werner Sinn, Professor of Economics at the University of Munich, was President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research and serves on the German economy ministry’s Advisory Council. He is the author, most recently, of The Euro Trap: On Bursting Bubbles, Budgets, and Beliefs.

MÜNCHEN – Nun haben sich die Erwartungen bestätigt. Die EZB hat beschlossen, die Eurozone mit Nachdruck zu inflationieren. Was harmlos als symmetrisches Inflationsziel von 1,9% deklariert wird, soll in den nächsten Jahren die Basis für eine neue Phase der expansiven Geldpolitik schaffen, die noch weit über das hinaus geht, was bislang realisiert wurde. 

Erinnern wir uns. Im Maastrichter Vertrag wurde der EZB das nicht verhandelbare Ziel mitgegeben, für stabile Preise zu sorgen, was, wenn man es wörtlich nimmt, eine Inflationsrate von null bedeutet. Sie erhielt ein ganz anderes Mandat als die anderen Zentralbanken der Welt. Als dann die vom Euro induzierte Zinssenkung in Südeuropa eine inflationäre Blase hervorrief, die die Inflationsraten in einigen Ländern auf deutlich mehr als 2% pro Jahr ansteigen ließ, argumentierte der EZB-Rat, das Ziel der Preisstabilität könne man nicht genau erreichen, und im übrigen gebe es viele Messfehler. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Employee happiness and business success are linked

Posted by hkarner - 31. Juli 2019

Date: 30-07-2019
Source: The Economist: Bartleby

What explains the connection?

OUR STAFF are our most important asset. Many managers have intoned this mantra over the years but plenty of employees have probably thought to themselves that, deep down, executives place a higher value on the machines on the factory floor or cash in the bank.

That impression can only be reinforced when executives refer to the need to maximise “shareholder value”. The implication is that keeping equity investors happy is a company’s main priority. Employees fall into the lesser category of “stakeholders”, along with component suppliers.

To many American businesspeople, the concept of “stakeholder capitalism” is often seen as a woolly European notion. The assumption is that firms which focus on stakeholders will struggle to survive in the Darwinian world of multinational business. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump’s Role Model

Posted by hkarner - 31. Juli 2019

David M. Driesen

David M. Driesen is University Professor at Syracuse University College of Law.

US President Donald Trump and his advisers have evidently learned a great deal from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán about racist immigration policies and how to destroy a democracy. Trump is not making America great or even good; he is making it Hungarian.

SYRACUSE – US President Donald Trump did not invent his immigration policy. Instead, he borrowed much of it from his fellow autocrat Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister, who fanned anti-migrant sentiment among a large enough share of voters to gain the political power he needed to dismantle Hungarian democracy.

Given Trump’s imitation of Orbán, US liberals who bewail the cruelty and stupidity of Trump’s immigration policies, and conservatives who advocate “border security,” miss the point. Trump is not using such measures to try to make America great; like his role model, he is trying to manufacture an immigration-related crisis to help him establish an autocracy. And although Trump’s efforts in this regard are less far advanced than Orbán’s nine-year-old project in Hungary, he has made more progress than most Americans realize.Orbán, like Trump, has made demonization of immigrants a defining feature of his administration.

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American Tech Shudders as China Cyber Rules Are Expected to Get Tougher

Posted by hkarner - 31. Juli 2019

Date: 30-07-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

New draft rules and standards flesh out an existing law that the U.S. and many foreign businesses already consider draconian

China’s proposed cybersecurity rules reflect multiple factors shaping the country’s cybersecurity landscape, including growing consumer awareness over data privacy.

BEIJING—Cybersecurity proposals by China have U.S. businesses worried that the draft regulations represent additional barriers to the Chinese market, a concern that could complicate U.S.-China trade talks.

The new rules and standards, floated over the past two months with little fanfare, flesh out an existing cybersecurity law that Washington and many foreign businesses already consider draconian. Some would forbid certain data from leaving China or at least slow the process of dispatching data, which would increase uncertainties and costs for business. Tough rules for procuring equipment could also place foreign products at a disadvantage. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Great Countries, Bad Leaders

Posted by hkarner - 31. Juli 2019

Chris Patten, the last British governor of Hong Kong and a former EU commissioner for external affairs, is Chancellor of the University of Oxford.

China and the United States are great countries, but are being badly governed – one by Leninist autocrats afraid of their own shadow, and the other by a bizarre populist who prefers despots to liberal democrats. For now, the rest of the world has good reason to hope for better and wiser leadership in Beijing and Washington – and soon.

LONDON – I first visited the United States in 1965 on a student scholarship funded by a generous Boston philanthropist. Ever since that trip, which took me from New York to California to Alabama and back, I have been a confirmed Americophile. I love the country and have visited it more often than any other outside Britain and Western Europe.

I admire the US for its culture, entrepreneurialism, and universities, and I have many American friends. Furthermore, I know how grateful the rest of the world has to be for US leadership after World War II. Never before had a victorious power behaved so generously toward others, including the defeated. We owe so much to US policy in the second half of the twentieth century. But although I am no declinist regarding American economic, intellectual, and military power, the country’s soft power has certainly decreased, and its positive influence around the world has declined.

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Is Von Der Leyen the Leader Europe Needs?

Posted by hkarner - 30. Juli 2019

Dominique Moisi is a special adviser at the Institut Montaigne in Paris. He is the author of La Géopolitique des Séries ou le triomphe de la peur.

Germany’s Ursula von der Leyen is far from being a bad choice to be the next president of the European Commission. Yet, alongside the general sense of relief that EU leaders managed to agree on a candidate, a nagging doubt remains as to whether Europe will really have the best person – and team – at the helm.

PARIS – Charles de Gaulle had “a certain idea of France.” But does Ursula von der Leyen, the next president of the European Commission, have a certain idea of Europe, in the way Jacques Delors did when he held the European Union’s top job?

Perhaps this is an unfair and irrelevant question. After all, Delors’s own view of Europe evolved over time. And more generally, Europe’s politics (and therefore its politicians) have become more pragmatic and less idealistic in the half-century since de Gaulle’s death. Politicians nowadays are (at best) ambitious doers and, more often than not, astute survivors. Yet the next Commission president will take office at a time when Europe desperately needs a visionary leader rather than a mere dealmaker. True, von der Leyen is far from being a bad choice. She will be the first woman to hold the EU’s top job, and the first German to do so since Walter Hallstein in the late 1950s and 1960s, when European integration was in its infancy. Moreover, von der Leyen is undeniably pro-European and Atlanticist. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Boris Johnson Ramps Up No-Deal Brexit Rhetoric, Causing Pound to Fall

Posted by hkarner - 30. Juli 2019

Date: 29-07-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The British prime minister won’t engage with EU leaders unless they reopen deal negotiations, making a no-deal exit from the bloc more likely

LONDON—Britain’s new Prime Minister Boris Johnson is refusing to meet with European Union leaders unless they renegotiate a Brexit divorce deal, beginning a standoff with the bloc that triggered the pound to fall to its lowest level against the euro in almost two years on Monday.

Since entering Downing Street last week, Mr. Johnson has upped the rhetoric around leaving the EU without a deal to smooth the way on Oct. 31, stating that it was the default position unless a previously negotiated divorce agreement is significantly altered. On Monday, his spokeswoman said that Mr. Johnson would only begin face-to-face meetings with EU leaders if they agreed to change key aspects to the deal, something the other 27 member states have so far refused to do.

On a visit to Scotland on Monday, Mr. Johnson said that there was “scope” for a new deal but only if the EU cooperated. The pound fell more than 1% against the dollar amid rising worries that a no-deal break with the EU would damage the British economy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Boris’s Brexit

Posted by hkarner - 29. Juli 2019

Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0: The Birth of a New Economy in the Aftermath of Crisis, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.

Political betting markets now put the chance of a no-deal Brexit at roughly one-third. But, regardless of the reckless promises to Conservative Europhobes that made Boris Johnson prime minister, an orderly, negotiated Brexit will be the favored option for a political libertine whose only consistent principle has been inconsistency.

LONDON – Now that Boris Johnson has achieved his lifetime ambition to become the United Kingdom’s prime minister, the tragicomedy of Brexit is approaching its climax. While the rest of the European Union has viewed this with barely disguised horror, there is good news and bad news in Johnson’s apotheosis. 

The bad news is that the “no-deal” withdrawal from the European Union that Johnson advocated to win the leadership of the Europhobic Conservative Party could cause a sudden stop in economic activity comparable to the disaster that followed the failure of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Although this business breakdown might initially affect only trade-related businesses in Britain, and produce some kind of UK-EU compromise within a few weeks or months, we learned in the 2008 financial crisis that even a brief interruption of normal commercial relations in one part of the economy can reverberate for many years. The good news is that Johnson is a far cleverer and more adroit politician than his predecessor, Theresa May. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Which Way Now for the EU?

Posted by hkarner - 29. Juli 2019

Kemal Derviş, former Minister of Economic Affairs of Turkey and former Administrator for the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), is Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Calls for Europe to strengthen its “strategic sovereignty” often imply that a more integrated European Union should become the third pillar of a “G3” world alongside the United States and China. But if the EU tries to become a pure power player in a transactional game of realpolitik, Europe’s soft power will weaken.

WASHINGTON, DC – With the main European Union institutions preparing for a change of leadership this autumn, now is a good time to reflect on the EU’s priorities for the coming years.

The EU’s new top team is all but confirmed. Ursula von der Leyen, the former German defense minister, will be the next president of the European Commission, while Christine Lagarde, the outgoing managing director of the International Monetary Fund, will take over at the European Central Bank. Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel will be the next president of the European Council, and Spanish Foreign Minister Josep Borrell is poised to become the EU’s new High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.Several commentators say the EU’s new leaders should seek to strengthen Europe’s “” through greater pooling of member states’ resources and much closer policy coordination. This is certainly much needed, not least on . Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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