Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Archive for 3. Juni 2019

The Trump Trade War Recession?

Posted by hkarner - 3. Juni 2019

By John Mauldin, May 31, 2019

Hoover, Smoot & Hawley
Multiplayer Game Theory
Trade Sandpile
Victim List
Lopsided Polls
The Seven-Body Problem

Publisher’s Note: John Mauldin is recovering from a minor illness. He’ll be back next week. Meanwhile, with trade disputes still roiling markets, below is a still-timely letter he wrote last year. You should definitely read it again. Ed D’Agostino

“A conservative is someone who stands athwart history, yelling stop, at a time when no one is inclined to do so, or to have much patience with those who so urge it.”
William F. Buckley, Jr., 1955

I will never compare myself to Bill Buckley, as a writer or anything else. He was one-of-a-kind and a personal hero who I am disappointed to say I never met but who I read a lot. The response to my recent tariff comments gives me a small hint of how it must have felt to “stand athwart history” and launch the modern conservative movement.

Many of you support the tariffs. And I understand your reasons. I really do. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Flat Tax for Italy

Posted by hkarner - 3. Juni 2019

Date: 02-06-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By The Editorial Board

Salvini braces for a fiscal showdown with Brussels.

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Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini.

Brussels will grapple for years with the political fallout from insurgent victories in last week’s European Parliament elections. How’s this for a strategy: Don’t fight ’em when they’re right. An early chance comes via a tax-cut plan from Italy’s Matteo Salvini.

Mr. Salvini, who leads the right-leaning League party, was one of the biggest winners in the election. His party, which forms half of the governing coalition in Rome, won 34% of Italians’ votes, compared to 23% for the center-left Democratic Party and 17% for his left-wing coalition partners in the 5-Star Movement. Mr. Salvini racked up those votes in part by promising tax cuts the European commissioners in Brussels don’t like.

Rome spent most of the autumn battling Brussels to a draw over Italy’s new budget. The awkward right-left coalition government eventually abandoned some of its tax-cut and spending plans while Brussels massaged its economic forecasts to pretend Italy’s budget would balance one day.

But what Brussels won’t admit—and Mr. Salvini knows—is that economic growth is a precondition to balance a budget or reduce Italy’s debt burden of 130% of GDP. The Italian politician has been persuading voters since last year’s showdown. “Reducing taxes is the only way to lower . . . the debt and deficit,” he said in an interview with Reuters before the election, “so they should allow us to cut taxes.” “They” is a pointed reference to the fiscal scolds at the European Commission. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Centrist liberals gained the most power in the EU Parliament

Posted by hkarner - 3. Juni 2019

Date: 30-05-2019
Source: The Economist

Eurosceptics gained a similar number of seats, but are less ideologically cohesive

Eurosceptics hoped that populist parties would sweep last week’s European Parliament elections. But voters delivered a murky verdict. Eurosceptics did make progress: parties in the top 15% of hostility towards the eu, as measured by a survey of political scientists run by the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, gained 30 seats. Yet parties in the most pro-eu 15% won 32 extra seats. The losers were the main centre-left and centre-right parties.

For the first time in the parliament’s history, its two main blocs, the European People’s Party and the Socialists and Democrats, failed to achieve a majority between them. In theory, that could turn the Eurosceptics into kingmakers. In practice, the older parties back the eu and want nothing to do with the populists. That will force them to depend on the liberals instead. Moreover, the pro-eu parties are likely to form a more cohesive group than their adversaries will.
Almost every possible mix of policy positions is present among the parliament’s 177 different parties. However, the Chapel Hill survey shows that some combinations tend to go together. Its authors assess parties’ views on dozens of issues, and aggregate them into ideological scores. The study was last run in 2017, so its ratings do not count recent political shifts. Nonetheless, its scores track well with other surveys, and with parties’ own manifestos.

One pattern is the boomerang-shaped relationship between views on the eu on one hand, and older divides over economic redistribution and cultural openness on the other. Before the global financial crisis, Euroscepticism won few votes. But the eu’s bailouts of bankrupt member states and struggles to absorb refugees linked opposition to European integration with hostility towards bankers and foreigners. Sensing a chance to broaden their scope, far-right and far-left parties sharpened their criticism of the eu, and Eurosceptic parties became more radical on other issues. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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