Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Archive for 18. Mai 2019

Die Angst vor dem „Italexit aus Versehen“

Posted by hkarner - 18. Mai 2019

Dominik Straub aus Rom, 16. Mai 2019, 17:57 derstandard.at

Italiens Vizepremier Matteo Salvini will zur Ankurbelung der Wirtschaft die Vorgaben der EU links liegenlassen. Verantwortungslos, warnt der frühere Regierungschef

Ich finde es unerhört, dass unser Innenminister und Vizepremier erklärt, man werde sich bis zu 140 Prozent des BIP verschulden“, erklärte Paolo Gentiloni in einem Interview mit dem Corriere della Sera. Der Lega-Chef tue so, als spielten bei einer ohnehin schon viel zu hohen Verschuldung 200 Milliarden Euro mehr oder weniger keine Rolle. Alarmiert haben Gentiloni die Äußerungen von Lega-Chef Salvini, der gleich bei mehreren Gelegenheiten erklärt hatte, dass Italien nicht nur das Recht, sondern die Pflicht habe, die EU-Haushaltvorgaben zu verletzen, um mit neuen Ausgaben die Wirtschaft anzukurbeln.

Risikozuschläge steigen

In den Augen Gentilonis handelt die populistische Regierung mit solchen Ankündigungen verantwortungslos: „Wir sind noch nie so isoliert gewesen in Brüssel – und der Schritt von der Isolation zum völligen Abseitsstehen kann kurz sein“, betonte der Ex-Premier. Der 64-Jährige spielt dabei auf die Möglichkeit an, sozusagen „aus Versehen“ aus dem Euro auszutreten: „Man kann entscheiden, den Euro zu verlassen. Man kann aber auch draußen landen, ohne das beabsichtigt zu haben.“ Zum Beispiel dann, wenn die Finanzmärkte das Vertrauen in die Haushaltpolitik verlieren und beginnen, massenhaft italienische Staatsanleihen abzustoßen. Salvinis Aussagen hatten auch umgehend zu einem Anstieg der Risikozuschläge für italienische Anleihen geführt. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Economists are rethinking fiscal policy

Posted by hkarner - 18. Mai 2019

Date: 16-05-2019
Source: The Economist

But not as radically as is sometimes claimed

Every so often a right-leaning economist raises the alarm about the apparently parlous state of America’s public finances. The subject gripped Washington in the early 2010s but has since been mostly disregarded. At 78% of gdp, America’s net public debt is high, if not yet huge. Thanks to President Donald Trump’s tax cuts, the federal deficit will exceed 4% of gdp this year, a level that is more typical after economic slumps than in the benign conditions seen today, with unemployment at 3.6%. What is more, unless taxes go up or spending on pensions and health care for the elderly is contained, public debt will rise to 92% of gdp in 2029, the highest since 1947, and go on rising for decades more, according to official projections.

Such warnings have fallen on deaf ears not just in Washington, but on Wall Street too. Financial markets, hungry for dollar-denominated safe assets, betray no concern about America’s debts. The risk of a crisis is not the only theoretical downside to public borrowing, but the others are looking unconvincing. For example, the argument that debt is crowding out private investment is hard to sustain when firms are awash with cash and can borrow at extremely low rates. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Beneath the dull surface, Europe’s stockmarket is a place of extremes

Posted by hkarner - 18. Mai 2019

Date: 17-05-2019
Source: The Economist: Buttonwood

The gap between value and quality stocks has widened into a chasm

It would be hard to tell a story about America’s stockmarket without mention of at least one company that listed this century—Google or Facebook, say. Europe is rather different. Its bourses are heavy with giants from the age of industry but light on the digital champions of tomorrow. It is telling, perhaps, that its character can be captured in the contrasting fortunes of two companies, Nestlé and Daimler, with roots not even in the 20th century, but in the 19th.

Nestlé began in 1867 when Henri Nestlé, a German pharmacist, developed a powdered milk for babies. The firm, based in Switzerland, is now the world’s largest food company. It owns a broad stable of well-known brands, including Nescafé and KitKat. Its coffee, cereals and stock cubes are sold everywhere, from air-conditioned supermarkets in rich countries to sun-scorched stalls in poor ones. Daimler was founded a bit later, in 1890. Its Mercedes-Benz brand of saloon cars and suvs is favoured by the rich world’s professionals and the developing world’s politicians. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Hopes of Brexit Breakthrough Dashed as Bipartisan Talks Collapse

Posted by hkarner - 18. Mai 2019

Date: 17-05-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The decision means the U.K.’s path out of the EU remains unclear

Britain’s opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn said the talks “have now gone as far as they can.”

LONDON—The U.K.’s main opposition Labour Party on Friday pulled the plug on Brexit talks with the government, dashing hopes for a formal bipartisan solution to break the logjam in Parliament over the terms of Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union.

The decision, which wasn’t a surprise, means the country’s path out of the EU remains unclear almost three years after voters chose to exit from the bloc in a 2016 referendum.

The collapse of the talks and the uncertainty around the possible replacement of Mrs. May in coming months sent the pound to its lowest level against the dollar since January. One pound traded for as low as $1.275. It also slid to a three month low against the euro, trading for €1.142.

In a letter to Prime Minister Theresa May, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said talks about finding a compromise plan that could win majority support from lawmakers on both sides of the political aisle “have now gone as far as they can.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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