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Archive for 24. April 2019

Das Zerrbild der Deutschen vom Sozialstaat

Posted by hkarner - 24. April 2019


Dorothea Siems

Chefkorrespondentin für Wirtschaftspolitik
Ökonomen haben untersucht, wovor sich die Deutschen am meisten fürchten – und festgestellt, dass diese Ängste sich nur selten mit der Realität decken. Insbesondere die Mittelschicht fühlt sich ungerecht behandelt. Eine gefährliche Entwicklung.

Wie kritisch die Bundesbürger den Sozialstaat sehen, zeigt eine breit angelegte repräsentative Umfrage, die die Industrieländerorganisation OECD in 21 Staaten durchführen ließ. Obwohl Deutschland sich im zehnten Jahr eines Konjunkturaufschwungs befindet, sich der Vollbeschäftigung nähert und immerhin fast ein Drittel der gesamten Wirtschaftsleistung für Soziales aufwendet, sind die Sorgen hierzulande keineswegs geringer als in vielen ärmeren Ländern oder Staaten mit einer größeren sozialen Ungleichheit. Außerdem fühlt sich ein Großteil der Deutschen vom Sozialstaat unfair behandelt. Die OECD-Studie „Risks that matter“ zu den wirtschaftlichen und sozialen Ängsten haben die Forscher nun im Internet veröffentlicht.

Fragt man die Bundesbürger, welche drei Risiken sie kurzfristig am meisten fürchten, kommt die Angst vor Krankheit und Behinderung an erster Stelle. Gut jeden Zweiten treibt die Sorge um, er könnte in ein oder zwei Jahren gesundheitliche Probleme bekommen. Die Furcht vor Kriminalität und Gewalt nennen die Bundesbürger mit 47 Prozent am zweithäufigsten. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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India Struggles to Employ an Exploding Population

Posted by hkarner - 24. April 2019

Date: 22-04-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Subject: ‘The Youth Bulge’: India Struggles to Employ an Exploding Population

As Indians elect a government, the country’s economy faces a challenge that could define its global success in the years ahead

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party were featured in this recent campaign advertisement in Beed, Maharashtra, India.

SAHARANPUR, India—Amid the cacophony of India’s general election, now in
full swing as up to 900 million people vote over five weeks, one note rings through: the shortage of jobs for the country’s exploding youth population.

The high hopes Prime Minister Narendra Modi sparked in the 2014 election when he promised “achhe din,” or good times, are now colliding with economic distress in rural areas. Around this northern Indian city and in similar regions across the country, legions of young Indians struggle to survive in the informal economy while unable to find regular jobs in the cities either.

Agriculture provides nearly half India’s employment, even though those workers earn less than 20% of the national income. That imbalance hasn’t changed much in the past five years under Mr. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party-led government, which is running for reelection. India hasn’t created the sorts of entry-level manufacturing jobs for rural workers, either, as happened in China and other Asian countries that successfully established export industries. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Work in the Year 2030

Posted by hkarner - 24. April 2019

Date: 23-04-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Expect robots, re-skilling

April 12, 2019 – Orlando, Florida, United States – Customer orders are carried on a conveyor system at the newest Amazon Robotics fulfillment center during its first public tour on April 12, 2019 in the Lake Nona community of Orlando, Florida. The over 855,000 square foot facility opened on August 26, 2018 and employs more than 1500 full-time associates who pick, pack, and ship customer orders with the assistance of hundreds of robots which can lift as much as 750 pounds and drive 5 feet per second.

A number of recent studies have taken a close look at the the future of work over the next 10 to 15 years. Recently the World Economic Forum in collaboration with the Boston Consulting Group released the Eight Futures of Work Scenarios and Their Implications. The white paper considered eight distinct scenarios on what work might be like by 2030, based on different combinations of three of the most impactful and uncertain variables affecting the future of work: the rate of technological change; the evolution of learning in the workforce; and the magnitude of talent mobility across geographies.

For simplicity, the study considered two possible outcomes for each variable:

Technological Change. Developments in data science, AI, robotics, IoT, blockchain and other advanced technologies will have a major impact on labor markets over the next 10 – 15 years. The two possible outcomes are:

Ÿ       Steady: Change proceeds at the current (or slower) pace, with large-scale automation of blue- and white-collar routine tasks, but higher skilled tasks remain relatively untouched.
Ÿ       Accelerated: In addition to routine tasks, machines become capable of performing non-routine tasks requiring cognitive skills, as well as a wide range of physical tasks.

Learning Evolution. An even larger challenge will be ensuring that workers have the skills and support needed to transition to new jobs. The growing demand for expertise in rapidly advancing technologies will require continuous training. We’ll see increased demand for human skills like creativity, originality, critical thinking, emotional intelligence, leadership, reasoning, problem solving and ideation. The two outcomes considered are:

Ÿ       Slow: Many displaced workers compete for fewer roles that match their skills, while companies face increasing talent shortages.
Ÿ       Fast: Concerns about technological change and talent gaps lead o reforms in education systems. Companies invest heavily in the training and re-skilling of their workers, which along with lifelong learning help create a dynamic, creative workforce.

Talent Mobility. The third major variable, worker’s movement within and across borders, will be affected by a number of factors, including economic opportunities, travel regulations, crises and conflicts. The two possible outcomes are:

Ÿ       Low: National as well as local governments impose restrictions on migration to protect jobs in the short term. Talent shortages impact economic growth, while low levels of mobility dampen the exchange of new ideas and the expansion of markets.
Ÿ       High: Large scale movements of people searching for better opportunities become the norm. High-skilled workers flow to high-income enclaves, which are generally concentrated in large urban areas all around the world.

The eight future of work scenarios are based on different combinations of these three variables. Let me briefly summarize the salient qualities of each.

Workforce Autarkies: Steady technological change; slow learning evolution; low talent mobility.

Workforce autarkies are nationalist economies that aim to be self-sufficient. “Reacting to the worries of displaced workers, governments have imposed restrictions on international labour mobility and sought to fulfil their economies’ talent needs internally.” State protectionism can provide some relief to lower-skilled workers, but forces employers to move work requiring higher-skilled talent to countries with unrestricted markets. “The resulting reduction in knowledge transfer and continued talent shortfalls for local companies has reduced growth and dynamism over time, reducing the capacity of local labour markets.”

Mass Movement: Steady technological change; slow learning evolution; high talent mobility

In this scenario, both lower- and higher-skilled workers are on the move searching for better opportunities. This helps businesses access the best talent, but increases competition between workers at all skills levels, potentially leading to social tensions.

Robot Replacement: Accelerated technological change; slow learning evolution; low talent mobility

In this scenario, technology and machines advance rapidly while many in the workplace are unable to keep pace and face shrinking opportunities, further leading to increased automation. This hollowing out of the labor market will potentially lead to “deep and growing inequalities, polarized values and divided views about technology,” with conflict on the rise.

Empowered Entrepreneurs: Steady technological change; fast learning evolution; low talent mobility

This scenario is characterized by a highly skilled, motivated workforce, leading to a dynamic market for workers to create entrepreneurial opportunities for themselves. It might also lead to governments restricting labor mobility to protect their investments in high-skilled talent.

Polarized World: Accelerated technological change, slow learning evolution; high talent mobility

The combination of accelerated technological change and slow learning has led to large sections of the workforce being unemployable, while the lack of human skills is increasing the pressure to automate. Deep and growing inequalities dominate society, with large-scale movements of people within and across countries in search of opportunities. Affluent, globally-dispersed urban super-economies trade ideas, goods and services with each other.

Skilled Flows: Steady technological change, fast learning evolution; high talent mobility

The fast pace of learning has led to a highly skilled, motivated, dynamic workforce across a range of industries and sectors. Labor mobility within and cross borders has become the norm, with credentials and degrees increasingly standardized across countries and regions.

Productive Locals: Accelerated technological change, fast learning evolution; low talent mobility

The combination of accelerated technological changes and fast learning leads to a strong demand for high-skilled human workers to work with and complement increasingly smart machines. However, low mobility lead to talent shortages and dampen the exchange of new ideas and expansion of markets, causing companies and workers to focus on their local economies.

Agile Adapters: Accelerated technological change, fast learning evolution; high talent mobility.

“There is a strong demand for human workers to complement machines, manage the shifts underway and specialize in new kinds of roles… High talent mobility within countries and across borders, combined with widespread opportunities for online platform work that crosses borders, has created a global workforce that is highly agile, productive and globalized, rapidly diffusing values, ideas, technologies, goods and services around the world.”

The white paper makes it clear that scenarios are not predictions, which, in the end would be an impossible feat. Rather the scenarios are designed to stimulate discussions among policy-makers, businesses, academic institutions and individuals so they’re better prepared for the potentially big changes to come.

“All of the scenarios we present are possible, but none is certain,“ the paper concludes. „The most likely outcome is a combination, with different scenarios playing out simultaneously in different geographies, industries, age cohorts and socio-economic groups.”

Irving Wladawsky-Berger worked at IBM for 37 years, has been a strategic advisor to Citigroup, HBO and Mastercard and adjunct professor at Imperial College.  He’s currently visiting lecturer and research affiliate at MIT,  and is a regular contributor to CIO Journal.

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Smartphone-Bank N26 will bis zu 300 Mitarbeiter in wien einstellen

Posted by hkarner - 24. April 2019

23. April 2019, 16:36 derstandard.at

Das Berliner Fintech will in Österreich den Fokus auf digitale Sicherheit legen

Wien – Wie verloren geglaubte Söhne werden sie empfangen: Denn die beiden Wiener Valentin Stalf und Maximilian Tayenthal eröffnen in ihrer Heimatstadt in diesem Herbst ein Büro ihrer in Berlin aufgebauten Smartphone-Bank N26 (gesprochen: „N-Twentysix). Bis zu 300 neue Mitarbeiter sollen in Wien an der Zukunft des digitalen Bankings forschen. Die Botschaft wurde gemeinsam mit Wirtschaftsministerin Margarete Schramböck (ÖVP) am Dienstag verkündet. Die Ansiedelung ist ein „wichtiges Zeichen“ für den Standort, sagte die Ministerin. Für jeden „digitalen Job“ würden zwei bis drei weitere Arbeitsplätze entstehen, zeige die Erfahrung. N26 wurde 2013 gegründet. Mittlerweile hat das Unternehmen über 2,5 Millionen Kunden in 24 Ländern. Mit einer Bewertung von 2,7 Milliarden US-Dollar (2,4 Milliarden Euro) ist N26 Deutschlands erstes Unicorn – also ein Start-up mit Milliardenwert – unter den Fintechs. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump Is Guilty as Not Charged

Posted by hkarner - 24. April 2019

Elizabeth Drew is a Washington-based journalist and the author, most recently, of Washington Journal: Reporting Watergate and Richard Nixon’s Downfall.

The report by US special counsel Robert Mueller shows that a criminal approach to links between President Donald Trump’s 2016 election campaign and Russian interference on his behalf never made much sense. An independent commission would have conducted a more realistic and comprehensive investigation.

WASHINGTON, DC – The political situation in the United States is more unsettled now than at any time since I began covering it, including the Watergate era. President Donald Trump is a desperate, wounded, and unstable figure – a bloated, increasingly red-faced presence railing against the indignities to which he feels subjected by “haters” with nefarious motives.

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Bipolare Märkte in der „neuen Mittelmäßigkeit“

Posted by hkarner - 24. April 2019

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

NEW YORK:– Die Finanzmärkte neigen zu manisch-depressiven Zyklen, und in den vergangen Jahren war diese Tendenz besonders ausgeprägt. In Phasen der Risikofreude produzieren die Anleger – angetrieben von „animalischen Instinkten“ – Bullenmärkte, Überhitzung und manchmal regelrechte Blasen; irgendwann jedoch folgt dann auf eine negative Erschütterung eine Überreaktion und sie werden übertrieben pessimistisch, stoßen Risikowerte ab und erzwingen eine Korrektur oder einen Bärenmarkt.

Während die Kurse US-amerikanischer und globaler Aktien im gesamten Jahresverlauf 2017 , kamen die Märkte in 2018 ins Trudeln und gerieten im letzten Quartal des Jahres schwer unter Druck. Diese Risikoscheu spiegelte Sorgen über eine globale Rezession und die chinesisch-amerikanischen Handelsspannungen wider, aber auch über Signale der US-Notenbank (Fed), dass diese die Zinsen weiter anheben und eine quantitative Verknappung verfolgen würde.

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