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Archive for 14. April 2019

The Future of Economic Growth

Posted by hkarner - 14. April 2019

Jim O’Neill, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and a former UK Treasury Minister, is Chairman of Chatham House.

Given the failures to foresee the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent weak recovery, it is easy to think that economists have little to offer in the way of predictions. But when it comes to national-level GDP growth, past projections have largely been borne out; even when wrong, they can be used to diagnose structural problems.

MANCHESTER – Last month, I wrote about the between economic theory and real-world economic conditions, and reminded readers that economics is still a social science, despite whatever loftier ambitions its practitioners may have. Nonetheless, when it comes to the specific question of what drives economic growth in the long term, one can still offer rigorous predictions by focusing on just two forces.

Specifically, if one knows how much a country’s working-age population will grow (or shrink), and how much its productivity will increase, one can predict its future growth with considerable confidence. The first variable is reasonably predictable from a country’s retirement and death rates; the second is more uncertain. Indeed, the reported slowdown in productivity across advanced economies since 2008 is widely regarded as an economic mystery.Is it really a mystery, though? Consider the following table, which shows GDP growth since the 1980s for the larger economies, the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), and the “” (N-11) most populous developing countries. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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EU Prepares Tariffs Against U.S. Amid WTO Battle

Posted by hkarner - 14. April 2019

Date: 13-04-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

EU, U.S. nearing the end of a battle over plane-maker subsidies after 15 years of WTO litigation

BRUSSELS—The European Union is preparing tariffs on $12 billion of U.S. products over subsidies to Boeing Co., raising the stakes on the Trump administration’s plan for punishing the EU’s support to rival plane maker Airbus SE .

Europe’s move came after a U.S. said on Monday it intended to impose tariffs on $11.2 billion of imports from the EU. Brussels’s swift response highlights its resolve to go blow-for-blow with Washington over the matter.

Both are salvos in the two sides’ long-running fight at the World Trade Organization over government subsidies to the jet makers, which dominate the large commercial airplane market. Both the U.S. and EU are starting the process to impose the tariffs, but essentially are staking out what they believe is the appropriate penalty for the other’s trade transgressions. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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U.S. Moves to Accelerate 5G Rollout in Race With China

Posted by hkarner - 14. April 2019

Date: 13-04-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Trump pushes back against critics who say the U.S. is falling behind by relying on businesses to take the lead

WASHINGTON—President Trump touted U.S. progress in the race to next-generation 5G wireless infrastructure Friday—pushing back against critics who contend China is inching ahead—as his administration unveiled initiatives designed to advance the networks’ rollout.

Joined at the White House by hard-hat tower climbers, farmers and ranchers—representing groups that could benefit from 5G’s rollout in the U.S.—Mr. Trump said the emerging technology presents “astonishing and really thrilling opportunities.”

“The race to 5G is a race America must win,” he said, adding “it’s a race we will win.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Brexit Impossibility Triangle

Posted by hkarner - 14. April 2019

Emily Jones

Emily Jones is Associate Professor in Public Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford.

Calum Miller is Associate Dean and Chief Operating Officer at the Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford.

As the United Kingdom’s chaotic quest to leave the European Union drags on, the country’s leaders need to accept that the primary objectives of Brexit are, and always have been, mutually incompatible. Sadly, their refusal to acknowledge this is indicative of the kind of leadership that led to the current impasse.

OXFORD – With the European Union’s latest extension of the United Kingdom’s membership in the bloc, onlookers around the world are right to wonder why the Brexit process has proved so intractable. The short answer is that the UK’s government and parliament are trying to achieve three incompatible goals: preserving the country’s territorial integrity, preventing the return of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and enabling the UK to strike its own trade deals.

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