Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Archive for 4. April 2019

The IMF adds to a chorus of concern about competition

Posted by hkarner - 4. April 2019

Date: 03-04-2019
Source: The Economist

An economic theory of everything
A new analysis adds to worries about market power

PHYSICISTS’ QUEST for a “theory of everything” to explain all of their observations about the world is well-known. The equivalent in economics is the hunt for common causes for the rich-world macroeconomic trends of the past decade or so: a shrinking share of the economic pie for workers, disappointing investment and lacklustre productivity growth. These must be reconciled with low interest rates, pockets of technological advance and juicy returns for investors willing to take risks.

The leading economic theory of everything is that competition has weakened as markets have become more concentrated. Unlike firms in competitive markets, monopolies limit production in order to keep prices and profits high. They can therefore be expected to restrain their investment, too. They might still be innovative—with monopoly profits up for grabs, why not be?—but market power usually makes economies less productive overall. And monopolies have many opportunities to take bites out of labour’s share of the pie. Their high profits typically flow to investors, not workers. Their high prices eat into the purchasing power of wages. Their bargaining clout may even allow them to suppress pay directly. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Zentralbank der Zentralbanken: IWF hat nicht genügend Geld, um auf neue Krise zu reagieren

Posted by hkarner - 4. April 2019

Dank an H.G.

Andere sollen einspringen

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten | Veröffentlicht: 29.03.19 15:53 Uhr

Der IWF hat nicht ausreichend finanzielle Mittel zur Verfügung, um eine mögliche neue
Krise abzufangen, sagt der Chef der Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich.
Nach Ansicht des Chefs der Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich (BIZ), Agustin Carstens,
wäre im Falle einer neuen Finanzkrise selbst der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) machtlos.
Carstens machte seine Aussagen mit Blick auf den türkischen Finanzmarkt, welcher seit Tagen von
starken Verkaufswellen erfasst wird und der die Keimzelle einer Krise des Weltfinanzsystems bilden
könnte.

Der IWF habe nicht genügend Geld, das er verleihen könnte, wenn plötzlich eine größere Krise in den
Schwellenländern ausbricht, die sich auf mehrere Staaten auswirkt, sagte Carstens auf einer Konferenz
bei der französischen Zentralbank am Donnerstag. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italy’s Populists Covet Central Bank and Its Gold

Posted by hkarner - 4. April 2019

Date: 03-04-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Blaming the institution for the woes of ordinary Italians, lawmakers pursue a takeover

Some Italian politicians want to force the bank’s shareholders, mostly private banks, to sell their shares to the treasury.

ROME—Italy’s ruling populists pushed ahead this week with efforts to seize control of the central bank and its gold reserves, stepping up their confrontation with a symbol of the country’s establishment.

With two laws targeting the Bank of Italy under debate in parliament, the campaign is the latest attack on Italy’s independent institutions by leaders of the governing coalition, which is led by the antiestablishment 5 Star Movement and the nativist League.

The parties depict the central bank as a symbol of a technocratic elite aloof from the needs of ordinary Italians. Hundreds of thousands of small individual investors lost billions of dollars after several Italian banks failed in recent years, causing widespread anger against the Bank of Italy and previous governments. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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DAS BUDGETPLUS – EINE SCHWALBE

Posted by hkarner - 4. April 2019

FURCHE-Kolumne 264     Winfrie Stadler

Auf das Vorzeichen kommt es an: der Staatshaushalt für das Budgetjahr 2018 weist erstmals seit Jahrzehnten einen Nettoüberschuss aus. Trotz beträchtlicher Ausgabensteigerungen für Soziales, Gesundheit, Pensionen und Verwaltung steht unter dem Strich letztendlich eine „schwarze Null“ in Höhe von immerhin 426 Millionen Euro. Dieser Achtungserfolg verdankt sich allerdings nicht nur einem disziplinierten Budgetvollzug, sondern vor allem auch außergewöhnlich hohen Steuereinnahmen, die dank guter Konjunktur und kalter Progression üppiger ausfielen als erwartet.

Dazu kommen zwei entlastende Sonderfaktoren, die beide ursächlich mit der Finanzkrise zusammenhängen. Zum einen konnten in den so genannten Abbaubanken sowohl der früheren Hypo-Alpe-Adria als auch der einstigen Volksbanken AG aus dem Verkauf alter Vermögensbestände unerwartete Mehreinnahmen erzielt werden. Dieser Effekt hatte schon im Jahr zuvor eine deutliche Senkung der Verschuldungsquote bewirkt und dürfte auch heuer noch ein letztes Mal für schmerzlindernde Nachrichten sorgen.

Noch mehr Rückenwind verschaffen jedoch die extrem niedrigen Kosten der Staatsschuld. Bekanntlich liegen ja die Anleihezinsen für Staaten guter Bonität – zu denen Österreich erfreulicherweise zählt – auf einem historisch einzigartig niedrigen Niveau. Trotz seit 2008 im Durchschnitt des Euro-Raumes um über 50 Prozent angestiegener Staatsschulden liegen die Gesamtkosten für die Bedienung der dafür ausgegebenen Anleihen im selben Zeitraum um 13 Prozent niedriger als zuvor. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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What Happens When Europe Comes Apart?

Posted by hkarner - 4. April 2019

Date: 03-04-2019
Source: Foreign Affairs By Robert Kagan
Subject: The New German Question

Many have been lamenting the dark path that Europe and the transatlantic relationship are currently on, but there hasn’t been much discussion of where that path leads. European weakness and division, a strategic “decoupling” from the United States, the fraying of the European Union, “after Europe,” “the end of Europe”—these are the grim scenarios, but there is a comforting vagueness to them. They suggest failed dreams, not nightmares. Yet the failure of the European project, if it occurs, could be a nightmare, and not only for Europe. It will, among other things, bring back what used to be known as “the German question.”

The German question produced the Europe of today, as well as the transatlantic relationship of the past seven-plus decades. Germany’s unification in 1871 created a new nation in the heart of Europe that was too large, too populous, too rich, and too powerful to be effectively balanced by the other European powers, including the United Kingdom. The breakdown of the European balance of power helped produce two world wars and brought more than ten million U.S. soldiers across the Atlantic to fight and die in those wars. Americans and Europeans established NATO after World War II at least as much to settle the German problem as to meet the Soviet challenge, a fact now forgotten by today’s realists—to “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down,” as Lord Ismay, the alliance’s first secretary-general, put it. This was also the purpose of the series of integrative European institutions, beginning with the European Steel and Coal Community, that eventually became the European Union. As the diplomat George Kennan put it, some form of European unification was “the only conceivable solution for the problem of Germany’s relation to the rest of Europe,” and that unification could occur only under the umbrella of a U.S. security commitment. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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And we are still stuck with Trump and that is far worse!

Posted by hkarner - 4. April 2019

Date: 03-04-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Subject: Trump to Fed Chairman Powell: ‘I Guess I’m Stuck With You’

The president blasted the central bank and its leader at three meetings in the past week alone

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Capitol Hill in Washington in February.

WASHINGTON—President Trump is blaming the Federal Reserve for holding back the economy and stock market despite the central bank’s recent decision to do two things he wanted—halt rate increases and stop shrinking its asset portfolio.

The president blasted the Fed and Chairman Jerome Powell at three meetings in the past week alone, telling Republican senators, supporters and staffers that if it wasn’t for the central bank’s past rate increases, economic output and stocks would be higher and the U.S. budget deficit would be rising less. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Theresa May’s New Brexit Strategy Is Fraught With Political Risk

Posted by hkarner - 4. April 2019

Date: 03-04-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Ahead of meeting between the prime minister and opposition leader, both parties wonder if detente represents an opportunity or a trap

Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are meeting to try to find a route out of the Brexit impasse.

LONDON—British Prime Minister Theresa May and the leader of the opposition
Labour Party began the process of hashing out a compromise Brexit deal Wednesday, a path fraught with political risk for both sides.

With a summit of European Union leaders just a week away, pressure is on the British government to find a Brexit agreement that can gain Parliament’s approval and avoid the U.K. leaving the bloc without a deal on April 12.

To do this, Mrs. May has shifted strategy. On Tuesday, she announced she would reach out to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, after her repeated failure to persuade a core of anti-EU lawmakers in her own Conservative Party, and her allies from the Democratic Unionist Party from Northern Ireland, to vote for the deal she negotiated. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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