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Archive for 9. Januar 2019

What causes a flash crash?

Posted by hkarner - 9. Januar 2019

Date: 08-01-2019
Source: The Economist

Thin trading alone does not explain recent ones

MOST REGULAR flyers will have experienced an “air pocket”, when their plane hits turbulence and suddenly dips, with unwelcome effects on their heart rate and digestive processes. In financial markets these have become known as “flash crashes” after a particularly volatile day for stockmarkets in May 2010.

But markets can be more stomach-churning than a plane. Prices can not only fall rapidly, but rise equally fast. Whether this is good or bad news for the investor depends on which way they were betting before the turbulence hit.

The latest example came on January 2nd when the Japanese yen rose sharply and the Australian dollar fell. The proximate cause was a profit warning from Apple. This made Asian investors who were nervous about the Australian economy (which is heavily dependent on China) head for the perceived safety of Japanese assets. But trading was very thin, since many investors were still on holiday, and the American markets were closed overnight. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Year of Trump?

Posted by hkarner - 9. Januar 2019

Joseph S. Nye, Jr., is a professor at Harvard University and author of Is the American Century Over? and the forthcoming Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump.

If Trump’s iconoclastic style was merely a breach of traditional presidential etiquette, one might argue that his critics were being too fastidious, or were trapped in old-fashioned views of diplomacy. But crudeness can have consequences.

BEIJING – Time magazine did not choose Donald Trump as its Person of the Year in 2018, but it may do so this year. Trump ended last year facing criticism for announcing troop withdrawals from Syria and Afghanistan without consulting allies (resulting in the resignation of his respected defense secretary, James Mattis) and partially shutting down the government over a Mexican border wall. In 2019, with Democrats having taken over the House of Representatives, he will face increasing criticism of his foreign policy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Amazon Takes Market Cap Crown, Cementing Tech Power

Posted by hkarner - 9. Januar 2019

Date: 07-01-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Software giant, at $797 billion, surpasses Microsoft with $784 billion in value

Amazon.com Inc. is the latest technology titan to claim the crown of world’s most valuable public company, signaling the industry’s enduring market dominance even after turbulent months in which investors pummeled their shares.

Amazon finished Monday’s session up 3.4% at $1,629.51, with a market capitalization of $796.78 billion, the first time the retailer has attained the market-cap title. It ended a weekslong reign by Microsoft Corp. , which finished up 0.1% with a value of $783.57 billion.

The software giant in late November supplanted Apple Inc., for years the leader before worries about iPhone sales—exacerbated by the company’s revenue warning last week—knocked its shares lower. Apple finished Monday at $701.99 billion, No. 4 behind Google-parent Alphabet Inc.’s $745.63 billion. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Shaping Europe’s Present and Future

Posted by hkarner - 9. Januar 2019

Federica Mogherini

Federica Mogherini is High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and Vice President of the European Commission. She was formerly Italy’s minister of foreign affairs and international cooperation.

After a decade of economic and political crises, the project of European integration continues to face existential challenges. But while some observers worry about the EU’s future, its High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy is confident that through continued cooperation, Europeans can secure their interests even in an era of global upheaval.

As the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini has overseen EU foreign and security policy since November 2014. With her term coming to an end in 2019, Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relations asked Mogherini about the state of European security, the future of the international order, arms control, migration, and a broad range of other issues. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Consequences of Downward Trending Growth

Posted by hkarner - 9. Januar 2019

Date: 08-01-2019
Source: YaleGlobal

Investors worldwide worry about numerous shocks that could disrupt the global economy – war, cyberattacks or natural disasters. After a decade of low interest rates that fueled record levels of debt, governments recognize that economic growth is slowing. Other warning signs: Nationalism and populism flourish and threaten cooperative blocs like the European Union, the US-China trade war extends into 2019, political leaders continue deficit-spending without reforms, rising interest rates add to struggles over debt repayment. These trends contribute to uncertainty. Economist David Dapice urges cooperation, warning that nations will find it impossible to reduce risks or meet global challenges on their own “The upside of these problems, even migration and climate change, is that they are amenable to better policy – which does not make those policies popular or easy,” he concludes. “The political class must find a way to be honest with voters and persuade them that what is necessary is reasonable.” – YaleGlobal

Governments contend with debt and sluggish growth; many worldwide risks – known and unknown – could add complications

Multinational solutions for national problems: US traders worry about a falling stock market, and British citizens increasingly express a desire to reverse Brexit

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump Can’t Afford to Lose

Posted by hkarner - 9. Januar 2019

Date: 08-01-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal Opinion By William McGurn

The cost of defeat would be higher for President Trump than for Speaker Pelosi.

On Tuesday night, President Trump will deliver a prime-time address to the nation “on the Humanitarian and National Security crisis on our Southern border.” It will be his first big address from the Oval Office, a signal that the president recognizes, at least on this issue, that to succeed he must reach beyond his base to rally the American people. He further promises to travel to the border Thursday to “meet with those on the front lines.”

The Oval Office speech and trip to the border suggest the stakes are rising as the government shutdown is now in its third week. In the received Beltway wisdom, the trick for shutdowns is to pin blame on your opponents, in the way that then-Speaker Newt Gingrich was blamed for the 1995 shutdown by Bill Clinton, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer took the hit for the quickly aborted shutdown early last year. Because Mr. Trump took full responsibility for this shutdown even before it started, the thinking goes, he is fated to lose. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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U.K. Finds a Faulty Shipping Safety Net for Brexit

Posted by hkarner - 9. Januar 2019

Date: 08-01-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The government is racing the clock with contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit, but shipping companies say there are no easy solutions in supply chains
Trucks parked waiting to be loaded at the Port of Dover, England. The U.K. government is scrambling to prevent a logistics nightmare if a hard Brexit, in which the U.K. government separates from the European Union without an agreement on trade and border controls, occurs.

British policy makers are calling on the shipping industry to bail the country out from the mess that Brexit has become.

It isn’t going to happen, however, for at least a year. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Grundeinkommen und Pensionsalter: Der große Bluff der italienischen Populisten

Posted by hkarner - 9. Januar 2019

Dominik Straub aus Rom8. Jänner 2019, 11:00, derstandard.at

Bürgern wird nach wie vor weisgemacht, dass das versprochene Grundeinkommen und die Senkung des Rentenalters kommen werden

Manchmal genügt ein Taschenrechner, um politische Lügen zu entlarven. Etwa bei dem von der italienischen Populisten-Koalition aus der Protestbewegung Cinque Stelle und der rechtsradikale Lega versprochenen Grundeinkommen: Laut Regierung werden in diesem Jahr rund fünf Millionen verarmte Italiener ab April monatlich 780 Euro erhalten. Dafür sind im Staatshaushalt 2019 nach den Kürzungen durch die EU-Kommission noch 6,1 Milliarden Euro übrig. Die Rechnung lautet also: 6,1 Milliarden geteilt durch fünf Millionen ergibt pro Berechtigtem 1220 Euro pro Jahr. Verteilt auf die Monate April bis Dezember sind es nur 135,55 Euro pro Monat.

Dennoch verkündete der Fraktionschef der Protestbewegung, Francesco D’Uva, am Sonntag im Fernsehen: „Die zur Verfügung gestellten Mittel reichen trotz der Kürzungen im Haushalt. Alle Berechtigten werden die 780 Euro, die wir im Wahlkampf versprochen haben, erhalten.“ Selten hat ein italienischer Politiker die Bürger derart dreist und gegen jede Evidenz belogen. „Das Grundeinkommen ist nichts anderes als ein Betrug“, betonte Maurizio Gasparri von der oppositionellen Berlusconi-Partei Forza Italia.

Bürokratische Monster Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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