Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Archive for 7. Januar 2019

Central Bankers’ Fiscal Constraints

Posted by hkarner - 7. Januar 2019

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. The co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, his new book, The Curse of Cash, was released in August 2016.

With policy interest rates near zero in most advanced economies (and just above 2% even in the fast-growing US), there is little room for monetary policy to maneuver in a recession without considerable creativity. But those who think fiscal policy alone will save the day are stupefyingly naive.

CAMBRIDGE – If you ask most central bankers around the world what their plan is for dealing with the next normal-size recession, you would be surprised how many (at least in advanced economies) say “fiscal policy.” Given the high odds of a recession over the next two years around 40% in the United States, for example – monetary policymakers who think fiscal policy alone will save the day are setting themselves up for a rude awakening.

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Europe’s Future Is Up to Us

Posted by hkarner - 7. Januar 2019

Michel Barnier

Michel Barnier is a former vice president of the European Commission and French Minister of Foreign Affairs. He is currently EU chief negotiator for Brexit.

As 2019 begins, many in the Europe Union are no doubt feeling a sense of despair in the face of mounting environmental, economic, and political threats. But by focusing on four key priorities in the coming year, EU leaders could start to put the European project back on track.

BRUSSELS – Not far from my Brussels office, there is a large fresco with the inscription, “The Future Is Europe.” Once a deeply held truth among most Europeans, this belief is being increasingly challenged today.

Of course, pessimism comes easy nowadays. While the damaging effects of climate change are playing out before our eyes, the United States’ choice of unilateralism, the rise of China, and escalating geopolitical tensions elsewhere are posing new challenges to European prosperity and security. So, too, does the spread of disinformation and terrorist attacks in the heart of our cities, as we saw again this Christmas season in Strasbourg, France.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Seven ways technology will change in 2019

Posted by hkarner - 7. Januar 2019

Date: 05-01-2019
Source: The Guardian

App stores, Facebook, smartphone photography, even USB cables – they are all facing disruption this year

Facebook is in trouble after the UK parliament released its internal emails.

1 Silicon Valley’s cold war with the EU heats up

At the beginning of 2019, as at the start of 2018, Margrethe Vestager remains the most powerful woman in tech. The EU competition commissioner has the world’s biggest companies walking on tiptoe, afraid of her habit of enforcing competition law where the US authorities have refused to do so.

In 2018, Google was the subject of Vestager’s cold gaze, receiving multibillion fines for its anti-competitive practices around its Android operating system, its shopping service and Chrome browser. But in 2019, it’s likely to be someone else’s turn. The only question is who.

In the US, Amazon has been the odds-on favourite, thanks to a combination of a hostile president, a direct negative effect on commercial competitors and the rise of the doctrine of “hipster antitrust” (broadly arguing that monopolies can be harmful even if consumer welfare appears to be boosted). But in the EU, with a greater focus on privacy and data protection issues, Facebook looks vulnerable. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Apple and the Art of Guidance

Posted by hkarner - 7. Januar 2019

Date: 06-01-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By John D. Stoll

CEOs and their finance chiefs are in a tight spot this month as they report quarterly financial data, aiming for a delicate balance of realism and optimism.

Apple CEO Tim Cook

Among the things having as good a decade as the U.S. economy is Apple’s iPhone. Rummage through the pockets and purses of your workmates, and chances are you’ll find one.

The health of the near-ubiquitous smartphone and the economic engine it has helped drive and ride are both under a growing cloud, though. Apple Inc. slashed its revenue target this week as iPhone sales slumped, a development that tests the nerves of investors already on the lookout for signs of the first American economic downturn since 2009.

If there is a list of executives we’d expect to be capable of soothing concern, Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook is on it. After the guidance cut Wednesday, Mr. Cook sat for a televised interview and published a letter to investors. He pinned Apple’s problems on “mounting uncertainty” and promised to do better. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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