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Archive for 28. Dezember 2018

Is Canceling Brexit Now Inevitable?

Posted by hkarner - 28. Dezember 2018

Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0, The Birth of a New Economy, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.

As matters stand today, a new British referendum on leaving the European Union would produce a clear majority for remaining a member, regardless of how the votes were counted or the questions were asked. And with the only two Brexit options set to be rejected next month, the questions are increasingly likely to be asked.

LONDON – In times of political turmoil, events can move from impossible to inevitable without even passing through improbable. In early 2016, the idea of Britain leaving the European Union seemed almost as absurd as the next American president being the six-time bankrupt and serial sex pest Donald Trump. A few months later, Brexit and the Trump presidency were universally acknowledged as the inevitable consequence of an anti-elitist, anti-globalization backlash that was predictable decades ago.

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The US has become totally unreliable

Posted by hkarner - 28. Dezember 2018

Date: 27-12-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By The Editorial Board
Subject: Trump’s Broken Nafta Promise

The U.S. still hasn’t lifted metals tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

An employee monitors the packing of Wavemaker Amber Ale at Big Storm Brewing Company’s brewing facility in Clearwater, Florida, March 13.

When President Trump signed his new Nafta accord last month with the leaders of Mexico and Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau almost didn’t show up. The reason: Mr. Trump still hasn’t lifted the steel and aluminum tariffs as he promised he’d do if America’s two neighbors signed a revised trade deal.

A month later they’re still waiting. The delay is damaging the U.S. economy and America’s credibility as a trading partner. Though Mr. Trump likes to use tariff threats as a negotiating tactic, his Administration also promised relief from the levies he imposed under Section 232 of U.S. trade law. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Japan shrinking as birthrate falls to lowest level in history

Posted by hkarner - 28. Dezember 2018

Date: 27-12-2018
Source: The Guardian

In 2018 there were 921,000 births and 1.37m deaths, with government efforts failing to encourage families to have more children

The birthrate in Japan fell to 1.43, well below the 2.08 required to keep the population stable.

Japan suffered its biggest population decline on record this year, according to new figures that underline the country’s losing battle to raise its birth rate.

The number of births fell to its lowest since records began more than a century ago, the health and welfare ministry said, soon after parliament approved an immigration bill that will pave the way for the arrival of hundreds of thousands of blue-collar workers to address the worst labour shortage in decades. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe’s Year of Living Defensively

Posted by hkarner - 28. Dezember 2018

Joschka Fischer was German Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor from 1998-2005, a term marked by Germany’s strong support for NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999, followed by its opposition to the war in Iraq. Fischer entered electoral politics after participating in the anti-establishment protests of the 1960s and 1970s, and played a key role in founding Germany’s Green Party, which he led for almost two decades.

With the future of the EU-UK relationship shrouded in uncertainty and crises brewing in France, Italy, and elsewhere, 2019 will be another difficult year for Europe. And if populist forces prevail in the European Parliament election in May, it could be an impossible one.

BERLIN – From a European perspective, 2019 promises to be another difficult year, dominated by large challenges that could easily turn into menacing crises. Barring a major reversal, the United Kingdom will withdraw from the European Union on March 29. A brewing economic and financial crisis in Italy will intensify, threatening the stability of the eurozone. And France will likely remain beset by populist protests, diminishing its potential to take a lead role in the pursuit of EU-level reforms.

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