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Archive for 10. Dezember 2018

Theresa May postpones Brexit deal vote

Posted by hkarner - 10. Dezember 2018

Prime minister to make statement to MPs as pound falls to lowest level in 18 months

The delay will theoretically give Theresa May more time to renegotiate the existing Brexit deal. 

Theresa May has postponed the final vote on her Brexit deal after a last-minute conference call with cabinet ministers, a clear admission by the prime minister that she does not believe she can get the unpopular EU withdrawal agreement through the Commons.

Advisers, ministers and loyalist MPs had been urging May to delay Tuesday’s vote in order to seek new assurances from Brussels and avoid the chaos of a parliamentary defeat.

May is expected to confirm the vote has been delayed in an oral statement to the House of Commons at 3.30pm.

It will be immediately followed by a business statement from the leader of the House of Commons, Andrea Leadsom, implying that she will confirm the procedural details of the postponement. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Phony US-China Truce

Posted by hkarner - 10. Dezember 2018

Barry Eichengreen is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. His latest book is The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance and Political Reaction in the Modern Era.

There is no shortage of precedents for the approach to the escalating trade dispute taken by Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. But if the US economy shows signs of falling into recession, Trump will need to blame someone – and in this case, we can be relatively certain about who that will be.

BEIJING – On December 1 in Buenos Aires, US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, agreed on a 90-day moratorium on increases in import tariffs to provide a window for negotiations. Unfortunately, this approach to mediation does not always succeed, and investors were not impressed – as was evident in the 800-point fall in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on December 4. And if markets were skeptical then, they will be even more skeptical now, with the arrest of Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou for violating US sanctions on Iran.

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Brexit Upends British Political System

Posted by hkarner - 10. Dezember 2018

Date: 09-12-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Brexit divides both the country and Parliament, transcending the usual right-versus-left split

Prime Minister Theresa May spoke on Wednesday in the House of Commons.

LONDON—Brexit has turned Britain’s top-down political system on its head, with Prime Minister Theresa Mayin thrall to a fragmented parliament as she seeks to ratify a hard-won divorce agreement from the European Union.

The U.K. Parliament is expected to reject Ms. May’s Brexit deal on Tuesday, throwing plans for the U.K.’s departure from the bloc on March 29 into turmoil. The way out won’t be obvious.

Three factors have created chaos out of the 2016 referendum decision to leave the EU: The unique divisions sown by Brexit, Mrs. May’s rare minority government and an advisory referendum that didn’t spell out voters’ post-Brexit priorities.

Brexit divides both the country and Parliament, transcending the usual right-versus-left split in British politics. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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European Threats

Posted by hkarner - 10. Dezember 2018

December 7, 2018

Someone asked recently how many times I had “crossed the pond” to Europe. I really don’t know. Certainly dozens of times. It’s been several times a year for as long as I remember.

That makes me an extremely unusual American. Most of us never visit Europe, except maybe for a rare dream vacation. And that’s okay because our own country is wonderful and has a lifetime of sights to see. But it does affect our perspective on the world. Many of us don’t fully grasp how important Europe is to the US and global economy.

We may soon get a lesson on that. I’ve talked about Italy’s ongoing debt crisis, which is not improving, but Europe has other problems, too. Worse, events are coalescing such that several potential crises—all major on their own—could strike at the same time, and not too long from now. As I’ve been saying for about three years, there is no reason for the US to have a recession on its own. I think events elsewhere will push us into it, and Europe is a really big current risk. I know from my visits to Europe and discussions with friends there, they see all sorts of problems with Trump and particularly his tariffs.

However, another concern is that the various actors in Europe are not playing nice with each other. I tell my European friends the same forces that yielded Trump are coming to a European country near them. In some places, they already have. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Der «Draghi-Crash» ist nur eine Frage der Zeit

Posted by stgara - 10. Dezember 2018

Die Stimmung an den Finanzmärkten ist sehr gut. Glaubt man jedoch dem Risikoexperten Markus Krall, so täuscht sie ungemein. Er fürchtet, dass die Strategie der Europäischen Zentralbank zu einer deflationären Krise führen wird.
Christof Leisinger
EZB-Präsident Mario Draghi heizt mit der expansiven Geldpolitik die Stimmung an den Börsen an.

Die Stimmung an den internationalen Finanzmärkten ist erstaunlich gut. Die Kurse an den Börsen laufen von Hoch zu Hoch, die Renditen an den Bondmärkten sind weiterhin vergleichsweise tief und in Europa erholt sich nun auch der Euro. Dafür seien schwindende geopolitische Risiken, ein anziehendes Wirtschaftswachstum und nicht zuletzt die anhaltend expansive Geldpolitik der Zentralbanken verantwortlich, heisst es. Mario Draghi, der Präsident der Europäischen Zentralbank, schreibt sich diese Entwicklung als Erfolg der extremen Krisenpolitik der Institution auf die eigene Fahne.

Markus Krall sieht das völlig anders. Der Unternehmensberater, der Banken und andere Finanzunternehmen seit 25 Jahren im Risikomanagement strategisch unterstützt, hält die Strategie der EZB nicht nur für wirkungslos, sondern sogar für extrem kontraproduktiv. Am Ende werde genau das unvermeidlich, was die EZB vordergründig vermeiden wolle. Er fürchtet, dass die EZB-Politik zu einem deflationären Crash führen wird.

Sie warnen in ihrem Buch vor einem «Draghi-Crash», während EZB-Präsident Mario Draghi den Erfolg der extrem expansiven Geldpolitik feiert. Wie passt das zusammen?

Ich glaube, dass das eine Wahrnehmungsstörung ist.

Wie meinen Sie das? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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