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Archive for 8. Dezember 2018

News from Euroland – recession imminent

Posted by hkarner - 8. Dezember 2018

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17 mins. to read

When the money tap went dry…

Across Europe, and particularly in the 18-member Eurozone, the economic news is sobering. It’s now clear that the credit crunch in emerging markets which has played out over most of this year, plus the slowdown in China, are having negative consequences in Europe. Yet, despite the ongoing trauma of Brexit, the UK is cruising along relatively smoothly – for now.

A number of critical events are about to coincide. Firstly, the ECB will cease printing money by means of quantitative easing (QE) in December. The principal measure of the money supply across Europe, M3, was growing by around 5 percent per year when the ECB was buying up to €80 billion of bonds a month in 2013. That rate slowed to 2.1 percent in Q3 this year and will prospectively fall to zero in Q1 2019.

QE was instigated by ECB President Mario Draghi who took over the reins on 1st November 2011. At the beginning of 2012, at the height of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, he pledged that the ECB would do everything it takes to save the Euro. First came a programme of soft loans to Eurozone banks (the so-called LRTO); then came a massive programme of government and then corporate bond-buying following the example set by America’s Federal Reserve in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Climate Action Trumps Trump

Posted by hkarner - 8. Dezember 2018

Laura Tyson, a former chair of the US President’s Council of Economic Advisers, is a professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, and a senior adviser at the Rock Creek Group.

Lenny Mendonca, Chairman of New America, is Senior Partner Emeritus at McKinsey & Company.

President Donald Trump continues to deny the realities of man-made climate change, even in the face of warnings by his own administration that it will impose massive costs on the US. Fortunately, in the absence of federal leadership, businesses, citizens, and state and local governments are taking action on an unprecedented scale.

BERKELEY – Now is not a good time to be a climate-change denier like US President Donald Trump, given all the recent evidence that the atmosphere is warming faster than expected. On the Friday after Thanksgiving, for example, Trump’s own government published a major report warning that unchecked climate change will impose massive economic and human costs on the United States. And that came on the heels of an alarming study by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that painted a dire picture of Earth’s near future. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Arrest of telecom giant’s CFO escalates U.S.-China tech battle

Posted by hkarner - 8. Dezember 2018

Date: 07-12-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Subject: U.S. Takes Aim at Huawei

Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei, second from left, with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the company’s London offices in 2015.

The Trump administration’s efforts to extradite the chief financial officer of China’s Huawei Technologies Co. over criminal charges mark the start of an even more aggressive phase in the technology rivalry between the U.S. and China and will increase pressure on Washington’s allies to shun the telecommunications company.

Armed with a U.S. extradition request, Canadian authorities arrested Meng Wanzhou on Dec. 1, the same day as President Trump was holding a summit with Chinese counterpart President Xi Jinping. But White House officials said Mr. Trump had no advance knowledge of the arrest, indicating the action was on a separate track from trade talks currently under way between Washington and Beijing.

Ms. Meng’s detention underscores a sense of urgency, at the Justice Department and other U.S. agencies, to address what they see as a growing threat to national security posed by China’s ambitions to gain an edge in the tech sector. For years, Washington has alleged the Chinese government could compel Huawei, which supplies much of the world with critical cellular network equipment, to spy or to disrupt communications. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Second Chance for Britain

Posted by hkarner - 8. Dezember 2018

Ian Buruma is the author of numerous books, including Murder in Amsterdam: The Death of Theo Van Gogh and the Limits of ToleranceYear Zero: A History of 1945, and, most recently,  A Tokyo Romance.

In 1950, the British reacted with a mixture of horror and disdain to the proposed European Coal and Steel Community, suspecting a French plot to lure a pragmatic people into some utopian foreign project. The basic arguments against “Europe” have not changed at all since then, unlike the consequences of acting on them.

NEW YORK – On May 9, 1950, when European countries were just beginning to emerge from the ruins of war, the French statesman Robert Schuman announced his plan to create the European Coal and Steel Community. By pooling these vital war materials under a common European authority, violent conflict between France and Germany would become unthinkable. The Germans were delighted. The Benelux countries and Italy would take part as well. A first step toward a European union had been taken. Shortly after Schuman’s announcement, the British were invited to join in the discussions.

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