Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Archive for 7. Dezember 2018

Tiefer Blick: Billiges Geld hat zu neuen Exzessen an den Finanzmärkten geführt

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2018

Ein wesentlicher, sehr offener und mutiger Beitrag von Andreas Schnauder aus dem heutigen Standard (hfk)

Standard Tiefer Blick

 

 

 

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Hacking Health Care: How Tech Will Drive Down Costs

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2018

Date: 07-12-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Gary Shapiro, president and CEO of Consumer Technology Association, explains how robots, sensors and AI will keep us healthy for less

Artificial intelligence, sensors and even digital assistants like Amazon’s Alexa could help keep down medical costs and improve care.

Human beings are safer today than at any time in history. We live more than twice as long as we did in 1900 thanks, in large part, to advances in technology. But our increased lifespan comes at a price. The U.S. spends $3.5 trillion each year on health care, and the federal government shoulders more than 28% of that cost. The Census Bureau projects that 20.6% of Americans will be over the age of 65 by 2030, compared to 15.24% in 2016. The U.S. is facing a retirement wave that will strain our health-care system. As head of CTA for three decades, I’ve watched the medical community use new technology to make advances in everything from diet science to disease detection. Much of this technology has not been widely tested, and some of it raises difficult questions about privacy and cybersecurity. But AI, sensors and even digital assistants like Amazon’s Alexa could help keep costs down and improve care. Here’s how.

Sensors Will Show Us Ourselves Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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From Economic Crisis to World War III

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2018

Qian Liu

Qian Liu is an economist based in China.

The response to the 2008 economic crisis has relied far too much on monetary stimulus, in the form of quantitative easing and near-zero (or even negative) interest rates, and included far too little structural reform. This means that the next crisis could come soon – and pave the way for a large-scale military conflict.

BEIJING – The next economic crisis is closer than you think. But what you should really worry about is what comes after: in the current social, political, and technological landscape, a prolonged economic crisis, combined with rising income inequality, could well escalate into a major global military conflict.

The 2008-09 global financial crisis almost bankrupted governments and caused systemic collapse. Policymakers managed to pull the global economy back from the brink, using massive monetary stimulus, including quantitative easing and near-zero (or even negative) interest rates.

But monetary stimulus is like an adrenaline shot to jump-start an arrested heart; it can revive the patient, but it does nothing to cure the disease. Treating a sick economy requires structural reforms, which can cover everything from financial and labor markets to tax systems, fertility patterns, and education policies.

Policymakers have utterly failed to pursue such reforms, despite promising to do so. Instead, they have remained preoccupied with politics. From Italy to Germany, forming and sustaining governments now seems to take more time than actual governing. And Greece, for example, has relied on money from international creditors to keep its head (barely) above water, rather than genuinely reforming its pension system or improving its business environment. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The US-China trade truce: a time-out or a possible armistice?

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2018

The US-China trade truce will become a time-out or an armistice pending on China’s response regarding technology policy​

The trade truce between the United States and China, announced after the dinner of the presidents of the two countries in Buenos Aires on Saturday after the G20 meeting, must be assessed in accordance to three different motivations that can be attributed to President Trump as reasons for starting the war. Although special attention has been given to immediate implications of the truce for the global macroeconomic environment and its impact on financial markets, it is important to keep in sight what it will take to become either a short time-out or a step to armistice.

The US-China bilateral trade clash has been a crucial moment in the transition from multilateralism to bilateralism in US foreign relations since the arrival of President Trump to power. Full multilateralism faced great difficulties during the Doha round of trade negotiations, in which complex negotiation processes required unanimity for approval and were vulnerable to blockades set by a few countries. The Obama administration initiated its replacement by plurilateral negotiations, with support from the countries involved, as proposed in the Trans-Pacific Partnership and a possible later agreement with European countries. President Trump buried such an initiative and has argued there are advantages for his country to negotiate on a bilateral basis. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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France Tops OECD Table as Most Taxed Country

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2018

Date: 06-12-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Data comes a day after President Macron backed down from introducing a fuel tax increase following violent protests against the measure

France became the most heavily taxed of the world’s rich countries in 2017, according to figures published the day after President Emmanuel Macron backed off a fuel-tax increase that enraged much of the nation and sparked a grass-roots protest movement against his government.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s annual review of taxes in its 36 members published on Wednesday showed the French government’s tax revenues were the equivalent of 46.2% of economic output, up from 45.5% in 2016 and 43.4% in 2000. The Danish government’s tax take, which was the highest among OECD members between 2002 and 2016, fell to 46% of gross domestic product from 46.2% in the previous year and 46.9% in 2000.

The U.S. government’s tax revenues also rose relative to the size of the economy as a result of a one-off tax on accumulated profits earned by American businesses overseas. But at 27.1% of GDP, only five countries had a lower tax take: Mexico, Turkey, Chile, South Korea and Ireland. The OECD’s figures include taxes collected at state and local levels.

Before Tuesday’s climb down, Mr. Macron’s government had planned to raise fuel taxes in an effort to cut automobile pollution.

Economists say such consumption taxes that reduce pollution and other harmful effects are an efficient way for the government to raise revenue. But the planned move sparked the worst riots to hit Paris in decades on Saturday, leaving the city’s shopping and tourist center dotted with burning cars and damaged storefronts. Protesters vandalized the Arc de Triomphe, rattling Mr. Macron’s administration and the country.

The rise in French tax revenues was in line with a longstanding trend across wealthy countries. The average tax take across the organization’s members edged up to 34.2% of GDP in 2017 from 34% in 2016 and 33.8% in 2000 as governments continued efforts to narrow their budget gaps and limit the rise in their debts that followed the global financial crisis.

Of the 34 countries for which 2017 figures are available, 19 saw a rise in tax revenues relative to the size of their economy, with Israel reporting the largest increase. Mexico continued to record the lowest tax take at 16.2% of GDP, down from 16.6% in 2016.

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Quantum computers pose a security threat that we’re still totally unprepared for

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2018

Date: 06-12-2018
Source: Technology Review by  Martin Giles

Some US experts think it could take at least 20 years to get quantum-proof encryption widely deployed.

The world relies on encryption to protect everything from credit card transactions to databases holding health records and other sensitive information. A new report from the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine says we need to speed up preparations for the time when super-powerful quantum computers can crack conventional cryptographic defenses.

The experts who produced the report, which was released today, say widespread adoption of quantum-resistant cryptography “will be a long and difficult process” that “probably cannot be completed in less than 20 years.” It’s possible that highly capable quantum machines will appear before then, and if hackers get their hands on them, the result could be a security and privacy nightmare.

Today’s cyberdefenses rely heavily on the fact that it would take even the most powerful classical supercomputers almost unimaginable amounts of time to unravel the cryptographic algorithms that protect our data, computer networks, and other digital systems. But computers that harness quantum bits, or qubits, promise to deliver exponential leaps in processing power that could break today’s best encryption. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Sind Chinas Handelspraktiken wirklich unfair?

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2018

Daniel Gros is Director of the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, and served as an economic adviser to the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the French prime minister and finance minister. He is the editor of Economie Internationale and International Finance.

BRÜSSEL – Der zeitweise Waffenstillstand zwischen US-Präsident Donald Trump und seinem chinesischen Amtskollegen Xi Jinping beim gerade abgeschlossenen G20-Treffen in Buenos Aires wird beiden Seiten etwas Zeit geben, um über die betreffenden Themen nachzudenken. Und das grundlegendste dieser Themen ist die Frage, ob die amerikanischen Vorwürfe gegenüber China – die auch von vielen anderen Industrieländern geteilt werden – eigentlich gerechtfertigt sind.

Natürlich sind unilaterale US-Maßnahmen im Rahmen der weltweiten Handelsregeln nicht vertretbar. Haben die Industrieländer – die bereits eine informelle Kontaktgruppe von „Chinaverlierern“ gegründet haben, zu der auch Vertreter der Europäischen Union, Japans und der Vereinigten Staaten gehören – aber recht damit, dass Chinas Handelspraktiken teilweise unfair waren, könnten Gegenmaßnahmen durchaus berechtigt sein. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Evaporation Of The Greek Banking Sector

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2018

Tuesday, November 13, 2018, Observing Greece

The below statistics (source: Bank of Greece) show the development of the aggregate balance sheet figures of the Greek banking sector (all banks except the Bank of Greece) since the beginning of the financial crisis. Aggregate means that the figures are simply added up and not consolidated, i. e. there may be overstatements in some categories. For the years 2010 and 2015, the figures are as of June. For 2018, the figures are as of September (in BEUR).

2018 2018
vs vs
2010 2015 2018 2010 2015
Claims on domestic financial institutions 19,1 2,1 5,6 -13,5 3,5
Claims on foreign financial institutions 107,4 26,0 13,5 -93,9 -12,5
Domestic loans 273,9 217,1 181,2 -92,7 -35,9
Foreign loans 7,0 4,8 3,1 -3,9 -1,7
Domestic securities 42,9 13,6 11,6 -31,3 -2,0
Foreign securities 35,3 56,2 13,8 -21,5 -42,4
Domestic equities 7,0 4,8 3,6 -3,4 -1,2
Foreign equities 11,7 9,1 4,1 -7,6 -5,0
Remaining assets 40,4 52,8 54,8 14,4 2,0
Total assets 544,7 386,5 291,3 -253,4 -95,2
Debt to Bank of Greece 96,1 126,7 12,2 -83,9 -114,5
Debt to domestic banks 7,5 0,3 1,1 -6,4 0,8
Debt to foreign banks 63,8 7,6 23,2 -40,6 15,6
Domestic deposits 223,1 130,5 147,5 -75,6 17,0
Foreign deposits 25,5 9,8 6,9 -18,6 -2,9
Remaining liabilities 98,6 42,7 33,2 -65,4 -9,5
Total liabilities 514,6 317,6 224,1 -290,5 -93,5
Capital & Reserves 30,1 68,9 67,2 37,1 -1,7
Total liabilities & equity 544,7 386,5 291,3 -253,4 -95,2

In 2018, total assets (291 BEUR) were only a little over half the total assets of 2010 (545 BEUR), i. e. a decline of 47%. Put differently, almost half of a most important sector of the Greek economy evaporated. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Financial supervisory architecture since the Global Crisis: Supervisory models remain diverse, but more powers for central banks

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2018

Daniel Calvo, Juan Carlos Crisanto, Stefan Hohl 23 November 2018, vox.eu

Daniel Calvo, Senior Economist, Central Bank of Chile
Juan Carlos Crisanto, Deputy Chair of the Financial Stability Institute, Bank for International Settlements
Stefan Hohl, Senior Advisor, Financial Stability Institute, Bank for International Settlements

Following the Global Crisis, a number of significant regulatory reforms have helped to improve both crisis prevention and crisis management systems. Yet an effective financial supervisory architecture is essential to optimise the positive effect of the post-crisis reforms. When referring to a financial supervisory architecture, we mean an institutional supervisory setup that: (i) assigns specific functions to individual financial authorities; (ii) establishes coordination and cooperation mechanisms among those authorities; and (iii) specifies other approaches and arrangements to avoid potential conflicts of mandates. Deciding on the above institutional issues generally entails trade-offs between synergies across functions and potentially conflicting goals. In addition, the choices are influenced by the structure of the financial sector, past experience with financial crises, and legal, historical, cultural and political economy considerations. Moreover, the effectiveness of a financial supervisory architecture is very much related to the financial authorities’ ability to act with clear objectives, operational autonomy, comprehensive and effective powers, sufficient resources and adequate incentives.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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