Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Archive for Dezember 2018

The Center Left and Globalization

Posted by hkarner - 31. Dezember 2018

Caroline Conroy is a senior research analyst at the Brookings Institution.

After promising to reform both France and the European Union, President Emmanuel Macron is now struggling to reclaim the public’s confidence and prove that he is not the „President of the Rich.“ By pursuing a business-friendly reform agenda, Macron has fallen into a trap that center-left reformers everywhere seem incapable of avoiding.

WASHINGTON, DC – Popular uprisings across France are to shatter the hope that so many had placed in French President Emmanuel Macron after his election in May 2017. With his party, La République En Marche !, having secured an absolute parliamentary majority, Macron promised to pursue difficult reforms not just in France, but also within the European Union. But now he is facing the biggest crisis of his presidency.

Revitalization of the EU has long depended on a strong French leader capable of overhauling the country’s economy. Before the proposed fuel tax that brought the Yellow Vests into the streets last month, Macron had managed to overcome opposition to a series of labor-market reforms. Though politically difficult, the reforms were necessary to bring the budget deficit below 3% of GDP, in accordance with EU rules, and modernize France’s generous social-security system in the face of disruptive new technologies. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Climate’s Big Unknown: What’s Happening Beneath Antarctica’s Ice?

Posted by hkarner - 31. Dezember 2018

Date: 30-12-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

For three decades scientist Peter Doran has collected environmental data in Antarctica. This year he is leading a project that uses aerial sensors to probe beneath the surface of vast glaciers.

DRY VALLEYS, Antarctica—They call it the Dreamcatcher. Its job is to help answer one of the most important and perplexing questions facing climate scientists today.

Dangling from a helicopter over Antarctica’s frozen landscape, the giant hexagonal instrument sends out electromagnetic waves that penetrate the sheets of ice below, giving scientists something like an X-ray of an ancient body. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Sum of All Brexit Fears

Posted by hkarner - 31. Dezember 2018

Chris Patten, the last British governor of Hong Kong and a former EU commissioner for external affairs, is Chancellor of the University of Oxford.

The Leavers lied: The costs of withdrawing from the European Union were always destined to outweigh the benefits. Alas, the responsible, imaginative, and inclusive political leadership needed to minimize the damage is nowhere in sight.

LONDON – Day after day, week after week, most British citizens think that the turmoil over their country’s proposed exit from the European Union cannot get any worse. But, without fail, it does. Turmoil turns into humiliating chaos; a political crisis threatens to become a constitutional crisis.

Meanwhile, the date of the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU gets closer. It is fewer than 100 days until the UK leaves, and at the moment there is no deal in sight that is acceptable to both Parliament in Westminster and the European Commission and European Council in Brussels. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Corporate Debt Is Reaching Record Levels

Posted by hkarner - 30. Dezember 2018

Date: 30-12-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Highly leveraged companies could pose a threat to the global economy if rates rise or profits slump

Ratings firms have let larger companies such as CVS Health load up on debt to fund acquisitions without taking away their investment-grade ratings.

In the aftermath of the financial crisis, a swath of individuals and families began a long and painful deleveraging process.

Businesses, meanwhile, quickly moved in the opposite direction—loading up on cheap debt to the point where many observers now worry that highly leveraged companies pose a threat to the global economy.

U.S. corporate debt has climbed to roughly 46% of gross domestic product, the highest on record, according to data from the Federal Reserve and Commerce Department. Businesses in emerging markets, such as China, have gone on an even bigger borrowing binge, taking advantage of ultralow interest rates and, in some cases, state-driven policies designed to propel economies forward. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why Is the Fed Still Raising Interest Rates?

Posted by hkarner - 30. Dezember 2018

Martin Feldstein, Professor of Economics at Harvard University and President Emeritus of the National Bureau of Economic Research, chaired President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1982 to 1984. In 2006, he was appointed to President Bush’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, and, in 2009, was appointed to President Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board. Currently, he is on the board of directors of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Trilateral Commission, and the Group of 30, a non-profit, international body that seeks greater understanding of global economic issues.

Given that the US Federal Reserve has long said that its interest-rate policy is “data dependent,” why has it pressed ahead with monetary tightening in the face of worsening economic indicators? Three reasons stand out.

CAMBRIDGE – Earlier this month, the US Federal Reserve’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to increase the short-term interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, taking it from 2.25% to 2.5%. This was the fourth increase in 12 months, a sequence that had been projected a year ago, and the FOMC members also indicated that there would be two more quarter-point increases in 2019. The announcement soon met with widespread disapproval. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump vs. the Economy

Posted by hkarner - 30. Dezember 2018

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

Between publicly chastising US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and escalating his trade war with China, US President Donald Trump has finally rattled the markets. While investors were happy to look the other way during the first half of Trump’s term, the dangerous spectacle unfolding in the White House can no longer be ignored.

NEW YORK – Financial markets have finally awoken to the fact that Donald Trump is US president. Given that the world has endured two years of reckless tweets and public statements by the world’s most powerful man, the obvious question is, What took so long?

For one thing, until now, investors had bought into the argument that Trump is all bark and no bite. They were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as long as he pursued tax cuts, deregulation, and other policies beneficial to the corporate sector and shareholders. And many trusted that, at the end of the day, the “adults in the room” would restrain Trump and ensure that the administration’s policies didn’t jump the guardrails of orthodoxy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Premier Conte: „Italiens Wirtschaftslage ist solide“

Posted by hkarner - 29. Dezember 2018

„Italien ist die siebtstärkste Volkswirtschaft der Welt und die Ersparnisse der Italiener sind hoch“, erklärte Conte bei einer Pressekonferenz zum Jahresende.

Der italienische Premier Giuseppe Conte ist der Ansicht, dass Italiens Wirtschaftslage solide sei. Zwar sei das Land von einer hohen Verschuldung belastet, diese sei jedoch unter Kontrolle. „Italien ist die siebtstärkste Volkswirtschaft der Welt und die Ersparnisse der Italiener sind hoch“, erklärte Conte bei einer Pressekonferenz zum Jahresende.

Die Regierung habe Italiens Wachstumsprognosen 2019 auf 1,0 Prozent nach unten revidieren müssen. „Dies bedeutet aber nicht, dass wir uns mit einem niedrigen Wirtschaftswachstum begnügen wollen“, so Conte. Er äußerte die Hoffnung, dass die italienische Wirtschaft im neuen Jahr kräftiger als 1,0 Prozent wachsen werde.

Conte zeigte sich überzeugt, dass die Regierung aus der rechten Lega und der populistischen Fünf-Sterne-Bewegung bis Ende der fünfjährigen Legislaturperiode im Sattel bleiben wird. Die Regierung brauche Zeit, um ihren umfangreichen Koalitionsvertrag umzusetzen. „Es besteht eine perfekte Harmonie zwischen den beiden politischen Kräften, zwischen den Vorsitzenden der Regierungsparteien und mir. Beide Parteichefs, Matteo Salvini und Luigi Di Maio, sind sehr vernünftig“, lobte Conte. Seit dem Regierungsantritt im Juni sei es nie zu Divergenzen zwischen den Regierungskräften gekommen. Die beiden Regierungsparteien würden lediglich im Interesse der Bürger handeln.

Conte kündigte die Einrichtung eines Komitees an, das Verschwendungen in der öffentlichen Verwaltung reduzieren soll. Damit sollen Gelder gespart werden, die zur Umsetzung der Reformen der Regierung verwendet werden sollen, sagte Conte.

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Trump Insiders, Come Out of the Shadows

Posted by hkarner - 29. Dezember 2018

Date: 28-12-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

America needs candor. The president’s supporters won’t be convinced by anonymous testimony.

My most central hopes for 2019 involve, as yours likely do, peace at home and abroad. But I also hope very particularly for personal testimony from those who know whereof they speak. I want those who have worked with President Trump to tell us what it is like in this White House. And I want them to put their name on it.

How does he really operate each day? What do you see as you witness him doing his job?

The press reports he watches television for hours, is inattentive to briefings, doesn’t read, rants, rages, nurses petty resentments, doesn’t listen to those with expertise, doesn’t understand the constitutional limits on his office, is increasingly alone and paranoid. Are these things true? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe’s Missing Vote

Posted by hkarner - 29. Dezember 2018

Date: 28-12-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By The Editorial Board

An election should be an opening for more democratic legitimacy.

In an alternate universe, the election for a new European Parliament set for May should be an important moment for the European Union. Instead, the Continent is missing another opportunity to make itself more palatable to more of its skeptical citizens.

Over several days this spring, voters will return 751 lawmakers to represent them in Brussels. This should be a big deal. The Parliament must assent to legislation after negotiations with the bureaucratic European Commission and national leaders in the European Council. That has allowed an increasingly confident legislature to assert itself in recent years, driving debates on digital-economy regulation and some trade matters, despite many limits on its formal powers. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Is Canceling Brexit Now Inevitable?

Posted by hkarner - 28. Dezember 2018

Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0, The Birth of a New Economy, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.

As matters stand today, a new British referendum on leaving the European Union would produce a clear majority for remaining a member, regardless of how the votes were counted or the questions were asked. And with the only two Brexit options set to be rejected next month, the questions are increasingly likely to be asked.

LONDON – In times of political turmoil, events can move from impossible to inevitable without even passing through improbable. In early 2016, the idea of Britain leaving the European Union seemed almost as absurd as the next American president being the six-time bankrupt and serial sex pest Donald Trump. A few months later, Brexit and the Trump presidency were universally acknowledged as the inevitable consequence of an anti-elitist, anti-globalization backlash that was predictable decades ago.

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