Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Archive for 14. September 2018

Echte Staatsverschuldung: Eine Billion Euro

Posted by hkarner - 14. September 2018

Schon wieder die falsche Rechnung von EcoAustria. Wenn die nur lernen würden, wie man DCF rechnet. Das hat Larry Kotlikoff schon besser gekonnt. Die Staatsschuld ist dann eher >1000 % (hfk)

Ohne einschneidende Reformen werden ungebremste Ausgabendynamik und steigende Zinsen die Staatsschuld nach einer nur vorübergehenden Erholung bald wieder explodieren lassen, sagen Wirtschaftsforscher.Hohe künftige Ausgaben für Pensionen, Gesundheit und Pflege sind Gründe für die Staatsschuld.

Wien. Die Staatsschuldenquote wird irgendwann in den kommenden Jahren zwar zum ersten Mal seit der Euro-Einführung unter die Maastricht-Grenze von 60 Prozent des BIPs fallen. Ohne einschneidende Reformen ein paar Jahre später aber wieder völlig entgleisen und steil ansteigen. Das ist das Ergebnis des heute veröffentlichten jüngsten „Staatsschuldenchecks“ des Wirtschaftsforschungsinstituts Eco Austria.

Schuld sind hohe künftige Ausgaben für Pensionen, Gesundheit und Pflege sowie voraussichtlich stark steigende Zinsbelastungen für die Staatsschuld, denen keine adäquaten Einnahmensteigerungen gegenüberstehen. Diese und andere künftige Belastungen (etwa die geplanten Milliardenausgaben für Bahninfrastruktur) stehen schon fest, finden sich in der offiziellen Staatsschuld aber noch nicht, weil die entsprechenden Kredite noch nicht aufgenommen wurden.uncker will Euro weltweit wichtiger machen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Global Economy’s Fundamental Weakness

Posted by hkarner - 14. September 2018

Richard Kozul-Wright

Richard Kozul-Wright, Director of the Division on Globalization and Development Strategies at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, is the author of Transforming Economies: Making Industrial Policy Work for Growth, Jobs and Development.

Over the course of the past decade, the global economy has recovered from the 2008 financial crisis by riding a wave of debt and liquidity injections from the major central banks. Yet in the absence of steady wage growth and productive investments in the real economy, the only direction left to go is down.

GENEVA – When Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy ten years ago, it suddenly became unclear who owed what to whom, who couldn’t pay their debts, and who would go down next. The result was that interbank credit markets froze, Wall Street panicked, and businesses went under, not just in the United States but around the world. With politicians struggling to respond to the crisis, economic pundits were left wondering whether the “Great Moderation” of low business-cycle volatility since the 1980s was turning into another Great Depression.

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Why Being First in 5G Matters

Posted by hkarner - 14. September 2018

Date: 13-09-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The U.S., China, South Korea and Japan all see a big payoff from winning the battle for the wireless future

The race to be the first 5G country has begun—and the winner stands to gain a lot.

Around the world, giant wireless-technology companies are coordinating with their governments to come up with winning strategies to implement 5G, the next generation of cellular networks that promise to deliver ultrafast speeds and open up a range of new applications.

The U.S., China, South Korea and Japan are leading the early rounds. AT&T and Verizon plan city-by-city 5G launches starting later this year, while China expects national coverage by 2020.

While wireless-industry executives say applications that tap the full potential of 5G—self-driving cars, virtual reality and remote surgery—are several years away, leading the way does matter for a country’s economy, if the race to 4G is a guide. If the U.S. hadn’t led the way on 4G, the country might not dominate mobile technology, and its platforms, such as Instagram, Snapchat and perhaps even Facebook and Netflix might not have become global powers. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Makings of a 2020 Recession and Financial Crisis

Posted by hkarner - 14. September 2018

Brunello Rosa is co-founder and CEO at Rosa & Roubini Associates, and a research associate at the Systemic Risk Centre at the London School of Economics.

Although the global economy has been undergoing a sustained period of synchronized growth, it will inevitably lose steam as unsustainable fiscal policies in the US start to phase out. Come 2020, the stage will be set for another downturn – and, unlike in 2008, governments will lack the policy tools to manage it.

NEW YORK – As we mark the decennial of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are still ongoing debates about the causes and consequences of the financial crisis, and whether the lessons needed to prepare for the next one have been absorbed. But looking ahead, the more relevant question is what actually will trigger the next global recession and crisis, and when.

The current global expansion will likely continue into next year, given that the US is running large fiscal deficits, China is pursuing loose fiscal and credit policies, and Europe remains on a recovery path. But by 2020, the conditions will be ripe for a financial crisis, followed by a global recession. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The catastrophe if another global financial crisis strikes

Posted by hkarner - 14. September 2018

Date: 13-09-2018
Source: The Economist

Multilateral co-operation is on the wane today but is essential, says Arancha González of the International Trade Centre

IT IS 2020. The world economy is in a deep recession. Two years have passed since America imposed tariffs on many of its trading partners, prompting retaliation from China, Canada, the European Union and others. Negotiations to resolve differences faltered amid tensions over trade surpluses and deficits. The effects of the protectionist measures seemed modest at first, when global economic growth was still fairly strong. But costs gradually started to add up for businesses and consumers. Investments faltered. Global supply chains choked.

Then, in 2019, the American business cycle turned. In China, confidence in corporations’ ability to service debt fell. Financial markets plummeted. As the renminbi lost value, making Chinese products cheaper abroad, the American government placed even tougher quotas on many imports. Surplus goods from China flooded into other markets, where pressure to raise import barriers became irresistible. The downturn worsened. Job losses soared into the tens of millions.

This account is fiction, of course. But ten years ago this autumn, something similar might well have unfolded. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe Set for Trio of Central Bank Decisions

Posted by hkarner - 14. September 2018

Date: 13-09-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

A primer on what to expect ahead of the ECB, Bank of England and Turkey’s central bank announcements

ECB President Mario Draghi

A trio of central banks, in the U.K., eurozone and Turkey, are set to announce policy decisions within an hour of each other on Thursday, between 7 a.m. and 8 a.m. Eastern. They are likely to underscore weaknesses and vulnerabilities that have weighed on the world economy and financial markets this year.

Europe’s two most prominent central banks—the European Central Bank and Bank of England—are expected to signal caution, reinforcing a policy lag behind the Federal Reserve. Turkey’s central bank, by contrast, could act vigorously to tame soaring inflation.

ECB officials will likely have an eye on risks emanating from both Turkey, where a number of eurozone banks do business, and the U.K., which is entering a sensitive period in its negotiations to leave the European Union. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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