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Archive for 10. August 2018

The Real Payoff From Artificial Intelligence Is Still a Decade Off

Posted by hkarner - 10. August 2018

Date: 10-08-2018
Source: Foreign Policy By  Edoardo Campanella

The robot revolution hasn’t started yet.

It has been 21 years since IBM’s Deep Blue supercomputer checkmated chess champion Garry Kasparov, marking a historic moment in the development of artificial intelligence technologies. Since then, artificial intelligence has invaded everyday objects, such as cell phones, cars, fridges, and televisions. But the world economy seems to have little to show for the proliferation of smartness. Among advanced economies, productivity growth is slower now than at any time in the past five decades. National GDPs and standards of living, meanwhile, have been relatively stagnant for years.

This situation poses something of a riddle: Previous waves of technical innovation have come with rising productivity and, in turn, leaps forward in economic growth and well-being. For example, once electricity became widespread in the United States in the 20th century, labor productivity started growing at an annual rate of 4 percent—almost four times higher than the current rate.

There are two schools of thought about today’s productivity puzzle. On the one hand are techno-pessimists, such as Northwestern University professor Robert Gordon, who believe that today’s technologies are the issue. The six innovations that powered economic growth from 1870 to 1970—electricity, urban sanitation, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, the internal combustion engine, and modern communications technologies—the thinking goes, were simply more transformative than, say, Siri. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump’s Victorious Retreats

Posted by hkarner - 10. August 2018

Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0, The Birth of a New Economy, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.

Why does US President Donald Trump keep making empty threats against other countries? While his detractors think he is simply a braggart, a fool, and an ignoramus, there could be a less unflattering, though equally depressing, explanation.

LONDON – Will Donald Trump back down in his trade war with China, or will he win it? The answer is probably both. Trump’s characteristic sequence of blood-curdling threats – “fire and fury,” “squeeze Iran’s exports to zero,” “tariffs on everything Chinese,” “consequences the likes of which few have ever suffered” – followed by a handshake, a hug, and a sudden outbreak of mutual understanding, is now a clearly established pattern.

The most dramatic example was Trump’s abandonment of any genuine effort to remove nuclear weapons from North Korea. More recently, there was Trump’s suspension of tariff threats against the European Union after his love-in with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, the offer of a US-Iran summit “with no preconditions,” and then signals that escalation of tariff threats against China is actually a device to reopen negotiations. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Bank resolution and the structure of global banks

Posted by hkarner - 10. August 2018

Patrick Bolton, Martin Oehmke 01 August 2018, vox.eu

Barbara and David Zalaznick Professor of Business, Columbia University

Associate Professor of Finance, London School of Economics

How should prudential regulators deal with global banks that are ‚too big to fail‘? Many see bank resolution as the key element in dealing with this challenge (FDIC and Bank of England 2012, Financial Stability Board 2014). The main idea is that global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) should issue ‚total loss absorbing capital‘ (TLAC) in the form of subordinated long-term debt or equity. These securities would be issued to absorb losses and recapitalise the institution in resolution, with minimal disruption to the bank’s operations and without public support.

But what should these resolution frameworks look like? More importantly, would they work? Much hinges on this question, given that there are currently around thirty G-SIBs, with total exposures equal to more than 75% of global GDP in 2014.

Global and local

In our recent work (Bolton and Oehmke 2018), we provide a framework to assess the key trade-offs in cross-border resolution of global banks. The main difficulty in designing effective resolution regimes is the mismatch between their global nature and the national scope of the regulators charged with carrying out their resolution.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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SEC Probes Tesla CEO Musk’s Tweets

Posted by hkarner - 10. August 2018

Date: 08-08-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The regulator is examining whether Musk’s statement was truthful and why the disclosure was made on Twitter

Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk

WASHINGTON—U.S. regulators are asking Tesla Inc. whether Chief Executive Elon Musk was truthful when he tweeted that he had secured funding for what would be the largest-ever corporate buyout, people familiar with the matter said.

Officials at the Securities and Exchange Commission want to know whether Mr. Musk had a factual basis for tweeting Tuesday that the going-private transaction was all but certain, with only a shareholder vote needed to pull it off, the people said.

The SEC’s inquiries, which originated from the agency’s San Francisco office, suggest Tesla could come under an enforcement investigation if regulators suspect that Mr. Musk’s statement was misleading or false.

It couldn’t be learned on Wednesday whether the agency had opened a formal enforcement investigation. An SEC spokesman declined to comment. Tesla didn’t respond to a request for comment. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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