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Archive for 14. Juni 2018

Making the best of a bum deal: Britain is heading for a soft Brexit

Posted by hkarner - 14. Juni 2018

Date: 14-06-2018
Source: The Economist

The logic of the Irish border is forcing Britain towards a close relationship with the EU

WHEN Britons voted to leave the European Union two years ago, they had no chance to say what sort of Brexit they wanted. But Theresa May, who became prime minister in the aftermath of the referendum, quickly decided that they wanted the most drastic break possible. Without consulting her cabinet, let alone Parliament, she announced “red lines” for her negotiation with Brussels that put Britain on course for the fullest of separations.

This “hard” Brexit—in which Britain would free itself from the clutches of European judges, trade policy and migration rules, at significant cost to its economy and security—has long looked inevitable. Parliament’s resistance to Mrs May’s extreme plan has been timid and the Labour opposition feeble. Yet this week the tide turned. Rebel Tory MPs look likely to wrest control of Brexit’s endgame from the government. Meanwhile, the penny dropped among Brexiteers that the Irish border presents a near-insurmountable roadblock to a hard exit. With less than six months of negotiating time left, it is becoming clear that Brexit will be softer than Mrs May set out. That is good news for Europe and for Britain. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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„Schockierend schwacher“ Zuwachs bei Investitionen in China

Posted by hkarner - 14. Juni 2018

In den ersten fünf Monaten gab es den geringster Zuwachs bei den Investitionen in Chinas Wirtschaft seit mehr als 20 Jahren. Die drohenden US-Strafzölle könnten den Export bremsen. Die Investitionen in Anlagen legten nur um 6,1 Prozent zu.

Die Zahlen von Chinas Statistikamt zeigen eine Flaute bei den Investitionen im Land. Die Investitionen wachsen so langsam wie seit 22 Jahren nicht mehr. Die Anlageinvestitionen – etwa in Fabriken und Maschinen – legten von Jänner bis Mai nur noch um 6,1 Prozent im Vergleich zum Vorjahreszeitraum zu, wie die Behörde am Donnerstag mitteilte. Das ist der kleinste Zuwachs seit mindestens 1996. Zugleich produzierte die Industrie im Mai weniger als erwartet, während der Einzelhandelsumsatz mit 8,5 Prozent so langsam wuchs wie seit 15 Jahren nicht mehr.

Die Daten „waren für chinesische Verhältnisse allesamt schockierend schwach“, schrieben die Ökonomen der Rabobank in einer Studie. Die Zentralbank entschied sich angesichts der Hinweise auf eine Konjunkturabkühlung dafür, ihre Zinsen für Interbankengeschäfte nicht anzutasten. Marktteilnehmer hatten mit einer leichten Erhöhung gerechnet, nachdem die US-Notenbank ihren Leitzins zuvor wie erwartet auf die neue Spanne von 1,75 bis 2,0 Prozent angehoben hatte. Wird der Zinsabstand zu den USA zu groß, könnte Kapital aus der Volksrepublik abgezogen werden. „Sie haben die Zinsen nicht angehoben, um das wirtschaftliche Wachstum in Schwung zu halten“, sagte Analyst Ken Cheung von der Mizuho Bank in Hongkong. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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What „America First“ Will Cost Europe

Posted by hkarner - 14. Juni 2018

Date: 12-06-2018
Source: Foreign Affairs By Jeremy Shapiro

Could Trump’s Neglect Undo the EU?

The new U.S. ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, is quickly becoming Europe’s favorite bête noire. He seems to share his boss’ uncanny ability to offend people with a potent combination of professional incompetence and personal arrogance. Within hours of taking up his post in early May, he had tweeted out a demand that Europeans disinvest from Iran, essentially commanding his hosts to heed President Donald Trump’s decision to end the Iranian nuclear deal. Then last week, he gave an interview with Breitbart, a right-wing website that operates in both Europe and the United States, announcing his intention to “empower” conservative parties within Europe. The message to the German government was clear: the new U.S. ambassador intended to back its domestic political opponents.

In combination with a disastrously divisive G-7 meeting last week, these remarks have rekindled fears in Europe that the Trump administration will seek to stoke the populist wave that is shaking European politics. European establishment politicians fear that the United States’ support for their illiberal opponents will give these groups ever more strength in their struggles against Brussels. But the problem for Europe is not an American campaign to empower European populists; it is that the United States no longer sees the value in having a strategic vision for Europe at all.

AMERICA THE SELF-INTERESTED Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Who Unraveled the New World Order?

Posted by hkarner - 14. Juni 2018

Date: 13-06-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By David M. Smick

It wasn’t Trump. The global economic consensus began falling apart years before he entered politics.

European Council President Donald Tusk recently said that Donald Trump’s approach to trade, climate change and the Iran nuclear deal is undermining “the rules-based international order.” This is absurd. The global order began unraveling long before Mr. Trump’s debut on the world stage.

Start in 1989. That remarkable year saw the fall of the Berlin Wall, the collapse of the socialist model, and the rise of globalization. By the early 1990s, China, India, Eastern Europe and a host of commodity-producing countries had joined the global capitalist club.

That was the beginning of the so-called Washington Consensus—a new global order based on deregulating market access, liberalizing capital and trade flows, encouraging domestic competition, fortifying the rule of law, and reducing taxes, debt and market subsidies. By 1995, the leaders of this new world order established the World Trade Organization, which China joined six years later. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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