Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Archive for 29. Mai 2018

A plan to save the euro

Posted by hkarner - 29. Mai 2018

Jeffry Frieden 22 May 2018, voxeu

Professor at Harvard University’s Department of Government

The mismanagement of the euro area debt crisis has been the gravest failure in the history of European integration. Inaction, misguided action, contradictory policies, and political conflict turned a manageable debt problem into a decade of economic stagnation, social upheaval, and political protest.

The economic and social impact of this bungled crisis has contributed mightily to the rise of populist movements that challenge the euro, and European integration more generally (see Algan et al. 2017 for one among many surveys).

For the euro area to be stable and move forward productively requires substantial improvements in its operation. It is unlikely that the euro could survive another crisis like the one from which it is just (barely) emerging.

This makes it particularly important to evaluate the proposal from 14 leading French and German economists to reform the euro area in a way that they say combines risk-sharing and market discipline (Bénassy-Quéré et al. 2018). It also makes it particularly important to understand the political need for reform, and the political conditions any meaningful reform has to address in order to be successful.

There are several points worth making if we want to understand the current political economy of euro area reform. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Brandlöschung mit Benzin: Die europäische Einlagensicherung

Posted by hkarner - 29. Mai 2018

Hans-Werner Sinn, Professor of Economics and Public Finance at the University of Munich, was President of the ifo Institute and serves on the German economy ministry’s Advisory Council. He is the author, most recently, of The Euro Trap: On Bursting Bubbles, Budgets, and Beliefs.

MÜNCHEN – Europa diskutiert derzeit die gemeinsame Einlagensicherung für die Banken der Eurozone. Die Befürworter, allen voran die EU-Kommission und die EZB, verweisen darauf, dass mit einer solchen Sicherung die Gefahr einer Depositenflucht in Krisenzeiten gebannt würde. Die Gegner verweisen auf die fehlende Symmetrie der Bankenrisiken wegen des hohen Anteils der faulen Kredite in den Bilanzen der Banken mancher Länder. Erst müssten die Bankbilanzen bereinigt werden, und dann könne man weiter sehen.

In der Tat: Während die Banken stabiler Länder auf einen Anteil fauler Kredite an allen ausgereichten Krediten von weniger als 2% kommen, verzeichnet die letzte, im April veröffentlichte Statistik des IWF für Irland 11%, Italien 16%, Zypern 40% und Griechenland 46%.

Aber die asymmetrische Belastung mit faulen Krediten ist gar nicht einmal entscheidend. Gegen die Einlagensicherung spricht vor allem, dass sie die Banken zum zocken veranlassen würde. Selbst die Zombie-Banken der Eurozone würden nämlich durch die Einlagenversicherung in die Lage versetzt, sich nach Belieben Spargelder in Europa zu besorgen, um damit weltweit Ramschprojekte zu finanzieren. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Sergi Cutillas – The only possible Eurozone reform is the one that doesn’t change a thing

Posted by hkarner - 29. Mai 2018

This article was written before the collapse of the planned government and helps explain  the EU political elite’ panic.. The 5 Star Movement is right. Although convicted of tax-dodging or corruption you can be a minister in Italy. If you are critical of the EU or German hegemony, that is not the case. The EU political elite has once again demonstrated that democracy is when the policies they dictate is followed, everything else is “anti-democratic”. They are systematically digging their own grave.

Sergi Cutillas is an economist and currently Secretary of Economy and Work of Podemos Catalonia.

 

On May 7 of last year, Macron became president of the Republic of France, the youngest in the country’s history, and was presented by the mainstream media as the white knight who had come to save the EU after the shock of Brexit. The aim of his presidency, Macron announced, would be to reform and modernize France (privatizing, lowering wages and cutting welfare) to reduce the country’s competitive gap vis-à-vis Germany, thus encouraging the latter to engage in greater financial risk-sharing with the rest of the Eurozone. For a year now, Macron has been relentlessly attacking the rights of French working and popular classes, and is paying the cost in terms of consensus: students and workers have been demonstrating and on strike since the end of March against his reforms, and the mobilisations are broadening. However, Macron has not achieved his main objective: convincing Germany to move towards fiscal and political union in the Eurozone. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China and Russia Push Into Iran, Exploiting Europe’s Caution

Posted by hkarner - 29. Mai 2018

Date: 28-05-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Companies move to supplant departing European firms worried about running afoul of new U.S. sanctions against Tehran

The Kharg facility on the Persian Gulf in southern Iran handles most of the country’s oil exports.

TEHRAN—Chinese and Russian state-backed companies are maneuvering to profit from European firms leaving Iran, threatening the Trump administration’s bid to raise economic pressure on Tehran.

Their efforts show how Iran’s business landscape has shifted since the Trump administration withdrew from the nuclear pact, which lifted crippling sanctions on Iran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program, following 17 months of rising pressure. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has threatened the “strongest set of sanctions in history” if Iran doesn’t rein in its military activities across the Middle East and stop testing long-range missiles.

European executives who tried to make inroads in Iran since the Obama administration struck the nuclear deal in 2015 are now concerned Beijing and Moscow will seize an insurmountable advantage in a large, growing market.

“What would be not good neither for the U.S., nor for Europe, is if that at the end only Russia and China can do business in Iran,” said Patrick Pouyanné, chief executive of French energy company Total SA, in a speech in Washington after the policy shift this month. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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