Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Archive for 5. März 2018

Libor’s Climb Past 2% is Unnerving Some Investors

Posted by hkarner - 5. März 2018

Date: 04-03-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

A benchmark used to set borrowing costs on trillions of dollars worth of loans is on the rise, stirring concerns about the effect of higher U.S. interest rates on consumers and businesses.

The three-month U.S. dollar London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, surpassed 2% this week for the first time since 2008. That will lift rates on more than $100 trillion in debt and derivative contracts that are linked to the U.S. benchmark, from business and student loans to home mortgages.

Libor has been rising for the last two years as the Federal Reserve has tightened interest rates. But gains have accelerated in recent months, according to RBC Capital Markets strategist Michael Cloherty, because of changes to the U.S. tax code that have encouraged companies to reshuffle bond holdings.

One recent source of worry among strategists and investors has been the growing gap between Libor, which is set amongst banks, and the overnight index swap rate, which is determined by central bank rates. That spread has widened sharply recently and this week was at its highest level since 2009.

Back then, the sudden widening in the Libor-OIS spread signaled mounting stress within the financial system as a liquidity crunch made it more expensive for banks to lend to each other. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Langfristiges Wachstum: Ökonomen gegen Naturwissenschaftler

Posted by hkarner - 5. März 2018

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. The co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, his new book, The Curse of Cash, was released in August 2016.

CAMBRIDGE – Die meisten Wirtschaftsprognostiker haben die jüngsten Fortschritte bei der künstlichen Intelligenz (z. B. den durch das selbstlernende Schachprogramm von DeepMind im Dezember demonstrierten Quantensprung) achselzuckend zur Kenntnis genommen. Sie sehen darin keine größeren Auswirkungen auf das längerfristige Wachstum. Dieser Pessimismus ist mit Sicherheit einer der Gründe, warum die realen (inflationsbereinigten) Zinssätze weiter extrem niedrig bleiben, auch wenn der als Stimmungsbarometer geltende Zinssatz zehnjähriger US-Staatsanleihen in den letzten Monaten um einen halben Prozentpunkt gestiegen ist. Liegt der angebotsseitig begründete Pessimismus richtig, dürften die jüngsten massiven Steuersenkungs- und Ausgabepakete in den USA eher zu einem Anstieg der Inflation führen als die Investitionen anzukurbeln.

Es gibt viele Gründe, die aktuelle US-Fiskalpolitik abzulehnen, auch wenn die Senkung der Körperschaftsteuer sinnvoll war (wenn auch nicht in der verabschiedeten Höhe). Schließlich leben wir in einer Zeit steigender Ungleichheit und fallender Einkommensanteile für die Arbeit (im Verhältnis zum Kapital). Die Regierungen müssen mehr und nicht weniger tun, um Einkommen und Vermögen umzuverteilen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Inflation and Honest Data

Posted by hkarner - 5. März 2018

March 3, 2018

I’m going to wrap up our series on the problems of collecting and analyzing data in the first half of this letter, and then I’ll quickly comment on the Trump tariffs. I think both topics will feature in this week’s Strategic Investment Conference.

I strongly urge you to follow me on Twitter, because I will be very active during and after the conference, sharing my real-time thoughts. My Twitter handle is @JohnFMauldin. Do it now! Now let’s look deeper at the problems with data.

Coming up with the right monetary and fiscal policies is hard even if you know the outcome you want, and even if everyone else agrees. Neither of those conditions is normal. We’re often unclear on our policy goals, and we certainly don’t even agree on them.

We could all argue less if we could trust and use the same data, but that’s not happening, either. I’ve been discussing this vexing problem in recent letters. It’s a multiplex challenge to define what data is relevant, to collect it accurately, and then to analyze it correctly. A weakness anywhere in that chain will compromise the whole effort. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Britain and the EU’s divorce

Posted by hkarner - 5. März 2018

Date: 03-03-2018
Source: The Economist

Theresa May strikes a more conciliatory tone in her latest Brexit speech

The prime minister makes some small concessions to soft Brexiteers. But missing details in her plans will not help to advance negotiations in Brussels

FOR months the EU has been demanding realistic proposals from Britain for its future economic relationship with the bloc. In her big speech at London’s Mansion House today, dubbed “Our Future Partnership”, Theresa May was meant to give some answers. The prime minister duly called for a trade deal that is deeper and more comprehensive than any other the EU has with non-members. It was her most detailed Brexit speech yet, as well as her most realistic. She warned that “no-one will get everything they want”—a statement of the obvious, perhaps, but one which some Brexiteers have been reluctant to acknowledge. Yet critics around the EU are still likely to complain that her speech lacked specifics and that, although she denied the charge of cherry-picking, which she said applied to all trade deals, she is still in fact doing it. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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