Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Archive for 16. Januar 2018

Europe’s Doom Loop in Reverse

Posted by hkarner - 16. Januar 2018

Unlike before the 2011-2012 crisis, the eurozone seems to be locked in a benign credit cycle, in which lower risk premia allow both banks and governments to refinance at lower rates, more credit is available for the real economy, and the resulting recovery increases government revenue. But how long can this cycle persist?

BRUSSELS – During the 2011-2012 euro crisis, the currency area became mired in a “doom loop,” in which weak banks in financially distressed countries rationed credit, causing a recession that intensified pressure on government finances, which were already burdened by the need to cover banks’ losses. But such self-reinforcing spirals can also operate in the opposite direction. Understanding these dynamics may be the key to determining the eurozone’s relative strength today.

In a doom loop, the expectations of default drive up risk premia until the economy reaches the brink of collapse, even if the underlying problems could be managed over time. At a certain point, when the gulf between financial-market pessimism and economic reality becomes too large, the market becomes ready for a reversal. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How Britain Could Change Its Mind About Brexit

Posted by hkarner - 16. Januar 2018

Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0, The Birth of a New Economy, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.

Nigel Farage, the former UK Independence Party leader, now says that the June 2016 Brexit referendum could be overturned. He’s right, and the first requirement is to dispel the aura of inevitability surrounding Britain’s withdrawal from Europe.

LONDON – Will 2018 be the year when the United Kingdom changes its mind about leaving the European Union? Conventional wisdom says that stopping Brexit is impossible. But what did conventional wisdom say about Donald Trump? Or Emmanuel Macron? Or, for that matter, the original Brexit referendum? In revolutionary times, events can go from impossible to inevitable without ever passing through improbable. Brexit was such an event, and its reversal could be another.

Just ask Nigel Farage, the former UK Independence Party leader, who has suddenly said that the June 2016 Brexit referendum could be overturned. “The Remain side are making all the running,” Farage warned his fellow hardline Leavers this weekend. “They have a majority in parliament, and unless we get ourselves organized we could lose the historic victory that was Brexit.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Electoral Fate of Italy’s Banks

Posted by hkarner - 16. Januar 2018

Paola SubacchiPaola Subacchi is a senior fellow at Chatham House and visiting professor at the University of Bologna. She is the author, most recently, of The People’s Money: How China Is Building a Global Currency .

To fix Italy’s banking system, the government that emerges from the general election in March will need a solid majority, a comprehensive strategy to boost economic growth, and a willingness to confront vested interests. But none of the parties has shown any indication that it can meet any of these criteria, much less all three.

LONDON – As Italy approaches what promises to be one of its most contentious general elections since 1945, banks are the elephant in the room. Too big and cumbersome to be ignored, they are a constant source of embarrassment for the parties that have been in government since the global financial crisis of 2008, especially for former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who hopes to rekindle his political career in March. They are also an inviting anti-establishment target for the populists of the Five Star Movement.

Indeed, Italy’s banks epitomize all the problems that the financial crisis brought to the country, and on which the populists are capitalizing: a double-dip recession followed by sluggish GDP growth, high unemployment, especially among the young, and a collapse of domestic demand. Banks also embody the tangle of vested interests, malpractice, and even corruption that, together with la dolce vita, have come to be associated with Italy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Kroatien meldet historisch gute Tourismus-Zahlen

Posted by hkarner - 16. Januar 2018

Der Tourismus in Kroatien hat im Vorjahr neue Rekorde aufgestellt. Top Destinationen mit den meisten Nächtigungen waren Dubrovnik und Rovinj (Foto).

18,5 Millionen Touristen haben im Vorjahr das Adrialand Kroatien besucht, um 13 Prozent mehr als 2016. Die Zahl der Übernachtungen stieg im Jahresvergleich um 12 Prozent auf 102 Millionen. Im kroatischen Tourismusministerium wurden die Resultate als „historisch“ bezeichnet, berichteten die Medien.

Die Tourismuseinnahmen dürften rund 11 Milliarden Euro betragen, sagte der Tourismusminister Gari Cappelli am Montag. Das würde im Jahresvergleich eine Steigerung um 8 bis 10 Prozent bedeuten. Nach Daten der kroatischen Notenbank (HNB) wurden in den ersten neun Monaten 8,7 Milliarden Euro eingenommen, um 10 Prozent mehr als in der gleichen Periode 2016.

Insgesamt 16,5 Millionen Touristen kamen im Vorjahr aus dem Ausland, ein Plus von 14 Prozent im Jahresvergleich. Sie waren für knapp 90 Millionen Nächtigungen (+12 Prozent) verantwortlich. Die meisten ausländischen Übernachtungen entfielen auf Deutsche (20,7 Millionen Nächtigungen). Es folgten Slowenen (10,1 Millionen), Österreicher (7,6 Millionen Übernachtungen) sowie Gäste aus Polen (6,3 Millionen) und Tschechien (5,4 Millionen Nächtigungen). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Three Stumbling Blocks to a Solar-Powered Nation

Posted by hkarner - 16. Januar 2018

Date: 15-01-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Every hour, the sun bombards the Earth with enough light to satisfy our energy needs for a year, but there are barriers to our solar-energy future

Photo-voltaic solar cells

As a fraction of our energy mix, renewables in general and solar power in particular are growing faster than ever. What seemed like an impossibility just a decade ago—the displacement of fossil fuels from the U.S. power system, if not the world’s—is increasingly a reality. Here are three possible visions of our renewable-energy-powered future:

1. There’s mass defection from power grids, as citizens and corporations alike end a dependence on regulated monopolies that date all the way back to the days of Thomas Edison.

2. The same utility companies that now handle energy continue to oversee and balance a grid increasingly powered by renewable sources, and we hardly know the difference.

3. The landscape gets politically messy and technologically diverse, varying by locale, as utilities, customers and politicians battle over new ways to produce and harvest energy.

Whichever scenario we end up with, solar power is an odds-on favorite source, because of its abundance. Every hour, our sun bombards the Earth with enough light to satisfy humanity’s energy needs for an entire year. But at least three barriers stand between us and that sunny future. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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