Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Archive for 10. Januar 2018

Studie: Größte US-Banken weiter systemrelevant

Posted by hkarner - 10. Januar 2018

Einige Finanzinstitute seien weiterhin so groß und so vernetzt, dass sie im Fall eines Zusammenbruchs das gesamte Finanzsystem gefährden könnten, sagt die Minneapolis-Fed.

Der US-Notenbank-Ableger von Minneapolis fordert die Behörden auf, die Kapitalvorgaben für die größten amerikanischen Banken zu verschärfen. Trotz etlicher Reformen nach der Finanzkrise 2008 seien diese Geldhäuser immer noch systemrelevant, heißt es in einer am Mittwoch veröffentlichten Studie der Fed-Experten.

Einige Finanzinstitute seien weiterhin so groß und so vernetzt, dass sie im Fall eines Zusammenbruchs das gesamte Finanzsystem gefährden könnten („too big to fail“). Es bestehe immer noch ein Risiko von 67 Prozent, dass die Steuerzahler in den nächsten 100 Jahren für eine Rettung der Kreditinstitute aufkommen müssten. Aus diesem Grund sollten die Kapitalanforderungen für Geldhäuser mit einer Bilanzsumme von mehr als 250 Milliarden Dollar „deutlich“ erhöht werden.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The youth of today

Posted by hkarner - 10. Januar 2018

Date: 10-01-2018
Source: The Economist

Teenagers are better behaved and less hedonistic nowadays

But they are also lonelier and more isolated

AT THE gates of Santa Monica College, in Los Angeles, a young man with a skateboard is hanging out near a group of people who are smoking marijuana in view of the campus police. His head is clouded, too—but with worry, not weed. He frets about his student loans and the difficulty of finding a job, even fearing that he might end up homeless. “Not to sound intense,” he adds, but robots are taking work from humans. He neither smokes nor drinks much. The stigma against such things is stronger than it was for his parents’ generation, he explains.

Young people are indeed behaving and thinking differently from previous cohorts at the same age. These shifts can be seen in almost every rich country, from America to the Netherlands to South Korea. Some have been under way for many years, but they have accelerated in the past few. Not all of them are benign. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Can Trump Prove His Sanity?

Posted by hkarner - 10. Januar 2018

Raj Persaud

Raj Persaud is a psychiatrist based in London, and co-author of the forthcoming book The Street-wise Guide to Getting the Best Mental Health Care.

Peter Bruggen is a psychiatrist based in London, and co-author of the forthcoming book The Street-wise Guide to Getting the Best Mental Health Care.

Given a lack of definitive and objective psychiatric tests, questions about Donald Trump’s mental health may never go away. And a famous experiment from the 1970s suggests that even if he stops ranting on Twitter or speaking in convoluted and incoherent sentences, at best he will be viewed as being in remission.

LONDON – Since Donald Trump took over the United States presidency a year ago, doubts over his mental stability and his very sanity have been mounting. With the release of Michael Wolff’s book Fire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House, which claims to offer a behind-the-scenes look at the president’s dysfunctional administration, those doubts seem to have taken on a new salience and urgency. But, beyond claiming on Twitter that he is a “very stable genius,” what could Trump actually do to prove that he is psychologically fit for what, by some definitions, is the world’s highest office?

There is no clear physical test for mental illness. Even if Trump were subjected to a battery of blood tests and brain scans, the results would most likely prove nothing. The vast majority of people with psychosis would have normal results. Likewise, an abnormal test wouldn’t necessarily imply impaired mental capacity: a person can retain their intelligence, even after losing a significant amount of their brain. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How to Survive a Stock Market Bubble

Posted by hkarner - 10. Januar 2018

Date: 09-01-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

There are reasons to keep buying tech stocks, but do so with an eye on the exit
Not a dot-com repeat…yet

If a new bubble is developing in the stock markets, it is still very early.

Let me be clear: stocks, even go-go technology stocks, aren’t in a bubble. But there are increasing signs of euphoria, and it is plausible that a true blowout end to the bull market could be on the way soon. If a bubble is finally developing, investors will have a chance to make a ton of cash, to lose it again, or to miss out entirely. How best to play a euphoric market?

Start with the signs of frothy behavior. For years stocks have been going up without wild exuberance. Investors have felt compelled to buy shares because bond yields are so low, but this deliberate engineering of a bull market by the central banks didn’t engender excitement. The narrative of the market was one of caution. Investors for a long time bought the safest stocks they could, pressed chief executives to return cash rather than boost capital spending, avoided big glitzy takeovers and worried—wow how they worried!—about a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis.

Ten years on from Lehman Brothers’ failure that worry is finally dissipating. The market’s story line has changed to one of disruptive, low-inflation growth, fueled by easy money. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Google and Others Are Building AI Systems That Doubt Themselves

Posted by hkarner - 10. Januar 2018

Date: 09-01-2018
Source: Technology Review

AI will make better decisions by embracing uncertainty.

The most powerful approach in AI, deep learning, is gaining a new capability: a sense of uncertainty.

Researchers at Uber and Google are working on modifications to the two most popular deep-learning frameworks that will enable them to handle probability. This will provide a way for the smartest AI programs to measure their confidence in a prediction or a decision—essentially, to know when they should doubt themselves.

Deep learning, which involves feeding example data to a large and powerful neural network, has been an enormous success over the past few years, enabling machines to recognize objects in images or transcribe speech almost perfectly. But it requires lots of training data and computing power, and it can be surprisingly brittle.

Somewhat counterintuitively, this self-doubt offers one fix. The new approach could be useful in critical scenarios involving self-driving cars and other autonomous machines. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Federal Regulators Rule Against Trump Administration on Power Plants

Posted by hkarner - 10. Januar 2018

Date: 09-01-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission rebuffs plan to aid coal-fired and nuclear power plants

The coal-fired Plant Scherer, one of the nation’s top carbon-dioxide emitters, near Juliette, Ga.

WASHINGTON—Federal energy regulators on Monday rejected a Trump administration proposal aimed at shoring up struggling coal-fired and nuclear power plants to bolster the nation’s electricity grid, saying the administration hadn’t persuaded them the plan was needed to ensure the system’s reliability.

The administration plan, proposed in September, is one of its biggest initiatives to help those fuels compete amid a boom in gas-fired and renewable power. The Energy Department submitted the proposal, warning that so many coal-fired and nuclear plants are under threat of closing that the country’s electric grid faced a rising risk of outages and price spikes without it.

The five-member Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ruled unanimously that the administration hadn’t provided enough evidence that the measures proposed were needed. The commissioners—including four Trump administration nominees, three of them Republicans—said the government hadn’t provided adequate justification for changing the rules currently governing competitive electricity markets and that the proposal would have unfairly limited competition.

“In addition, the extensive comments submitted by [the country’s grid operators] do not point to any past or planned generator retirements that may be a threat to grid resilience,” FERC’s order said. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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In Defense of Economic Populism

Posted by hkarner - 10. Januar 2018

Dani Rodrik is Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. He is the author of The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy, Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science, and, most recently, Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy.

Populists’ aversion to institutional restraints extends to the economy, where they oppose obstacles placed in their way by autonomous regulatory agencies, independent central banks, and global trade rules. But while populism in the political domain is almost always harmful, economic populism can sometimes be justified.

CAMBRIDGE – Populists abhor restraints on the political executive. Since they claim to represent “the people” writ large, they regard limits on their exercise of power as necessarily undermining the popular will. Such constraints can only serve the “enemies of the people” – minorities and foreigners (for right-wing populists) or financial elites (in the case of left-wing populists).

This is a dangerous approach to politics, because it allows a majority to ride roughshod over the rights of minorities. Without separation of powers, an independent judiciary, or free media – which all populist autocrats, from Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to Viktor Orbán and Donald Trump detest – democracy degenerates into the tyranny of whoever happens to be in power. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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