Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Archive for Juni 2017

Britain’s decline and fall

Posted by hkarner - 30. Juni 2017

Date: 29-06-2017
Source: The Economist: Bagehot

The country has not cut such a pathetic figure on the global stage since Suez

WRITING to his wife in May 1942, Evelyn Waugh recounted a true story of military derring-do. A British commando unit offered to blow up an old tree-stump on Lord Glasgow’s estate, promising him that they could dynamite the tree so that it “falls on a sixpence”. After a boozy lunch they all went down to witness the explosion. But instead of falling on a sixpence the tree-stump rose 50 feet in the air, taking with it half an acre of soil and a beloved plantation of young trees. A tearful Lord Glasgow fled to his castle only to discover that every pane of glass had been shattered. He then ran to his lavatory to hide his emotions, but when he pulled the plug out of his washbasin “the entire ceiling, loosened by the explosion, fell on his head.”

A year on from the Brexit referendum Britain feels like Lord Glasgow’s castle. The most visible damage has been done to its domestic politics. With the Conservative Party in turmoil Jeremy Corbyn, Labour’s hard-left leader, talks about being prime minister in six months. But just as serious is the blow to Britain’s global standing, which is lower than it has been at any time since the Suez crisis in 1956, when America crushed Anthony Eden’s attempt to reassert British power in Egypt. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Shale Oil: Another Layer of US Power

Posted by hkarner - 30. Juni 2017

June 15, 2017 George Friedman, Mauldin’s Outside the Box

Summary

There’s scarcely a reason to point out how geopolitically important energy is. Energy, particularly oil, is a source of geopolitical power. Every country needs it, but only some countries have the resources to procure it themselves. Some countries have enough of it that they can profit from its export, and others have so much that they rely on it almost exclusively to fuel their economies.

Saudi Arabia and Russia are two such countries. They spend a lot of money on social services, and they can afford to do so as long as oil revenue keeps flowing in. In times of prosperity, they can, through OPEC, bully other countries into doing their bidding and even dictate the direction of markets. But when oil prices are low, as they are now, they simply don’t have as much money to pacify their populations or exert influence abroad. Pressure on their governments builds.

Simple supply and demand helps to explain why prices are low. When prices bottomed out a few years ago, most oil producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, were expected to cut production to normalize prices. Instead, they kept production high to increase their market share, thinking (incorrectly) that they would capitalize when prices rebounded. But perhaps a more important reason supply is so high, despite recent efforts by OPEC and Russia to cut production, is that the United States has exceeded expectations on how much oil it could bring to market. With the continued use of hydraulic fracturing and other related technologies, the United States is now believed to have more recoverable oil reserves than any other country in the world, and it is reaping the benefits of its newfound status.

Geopolitical Futures doesn’t forecast commodity prices, so we make no attempt to do so here. But the following report will outline a trend that has emerged over the past several years, one that will maintain downward pressure on prices and thus alter the global geopolitical landscape: affordable shale oil drilling in the United States. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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One Country, One System

Posted by hkarner - 30. Juni 2017

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Britischer Minister: London soll EU-Finanzzentrum bleiben

Posted by hkarner - 29. Juni 2017

Interview Nora Laufer 29. Juni 2017, 12:00 derstandard.at

Handelsminister Greg Hands will Großbritannien zum Freihandelschampion machen

STANDARD: Sie haben in Deutschland und Tschechien gearbeitet, sich für einen Verbleib Großbritanniens in der EU eingesetzt und sind mit einer deutschen Frau verheiratet. Wie ist das damit vereinbar, die britischen Handelsinteressen während des Brexits zu vertreten?

Hands: Ich habe voriges Jahr für einen Verbleib in der EU gekämpft. Das ist jetzt egal, weil sich die Briten mehrheitlich dafür entschieden haben, aus der Union auszusteigen. Als Regierungsmitglied muss ich der Entscheidung jetzt folgen. Es ist wichtig, dass wir eine hervorragende Beziehung zu anderen EU-Staaten, wie zum Beispiel Österreich, aufrechterhalten. Großbritannien bleibt – wie auch früher schon – offen für Investments und Gäste.

STANDARD: Mit dem Brexit machen sich die Briten nicht viele Freunde in Brüssel. Ist so ein Szenario dann überhaupt realistisch? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Kärntner Landtag setzt Schlussstrich unter Hypo-Desaster

Posted by hkarner - 29. Juni 2017

Der Landtag hat 68 Millionen Euro aus dem Zukunftsfonds für einen Vergleich mit dem Bund gegen die Stimmen der FPÖ beschlossen.

Der Kärntner Landtag hat am Donnerstag mehrheitlich beschlossen, 68 Millionen Euro aus dem Zukunftsfonds an den Bund zu zahlen. Dieser verzichtet im Gegenzug auf 1,62 Mrd. Euro. Damit wurde ein weiterer Schlussstrich unter das Hypo-Desasters gesetzt. Beschlossen wurde der Antrag mit den Stimmen der Koalitionsparteien SPÖ, ÖVP und Grüne. Beim Team Kärnten herrschte Uneinigkeit. So stimmte Abgeordneter Martin Rutter entgegen der Parteilinie dagegen. Auch die Mandatare der FPÖ erteilten dem Antrag keine Zustimmung.

Abgeordneter Anton Leikam (SPÖ) sagte, dieser Schritt sei die einzige Chance Kärntens, aus dem Hypo-Desaster herauszukommen. Für einen Rechtsstreit habe man weder die Zeit noch das Geld. Denn dafür müsste man eine Rücklage von 146 Mio. Euro bilden und mit rund 100 Mio. Euro an Gerichtskosten rechnen, so Leikam. Das würde bedeuten, dass Kärnten die 400 Mio. Euro zur Tilgung der ersten Tranche des 1,2 Mrd. Euro schweren Kärntner Haftungsbeitrags für die Einigung mit den Heta-Gläubigern gar nicht würde zahlen können. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Das sind die Gründe für Italiens drastische Drohung

Posted by hkarner - 29. Juni 2017

von Manuel Bewarder | Stand: 09:27 Uhr |diewelt.de

In den letzten Tagen ist die Zahl der Bootsflüchtlinge, die Italien erreichen, rasant gestiegen. Jetzt überlegt Rom offenbar, alle Boote abzuweisen, die nicht unter eigener Flagge oder im Auftrag einer EU-Mission fahren.

Quelle: N24/Isabelle Bhiyan

Italien erwägt, das Einlaufen mancher Rettungsschiffe für Migranten in seine Häfen zu verbieten – eine Reaktion auf das EU-Versagen beim Grenzschutz. Doch noch eine andere Angst spielt eine Rolle. Ein Überblick über die Lage.

Wie viele Migranten kommen übers Mittelmeer? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Changing Geopolitics of European Emotion

Posted by hkarner - 29. Juni 2017

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Yellen: Globalization, Technological Change Have Been Harmful to Many

Posted by hkarner - 29. Juni 2017

Date: 28-06-2017

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Fed chief also says the U.S. financial system is ‘safer and sounder’ than before the crisis

LONDON—The offshoring of jobs associated with globalization combined with technological change have been devastating for many American communities, while designing programs to help has proved difficult, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said Tuesday.

Speaking at the British Academy, Ms. Yellen said the two processes were intertwined, and had led to a loss of middle-income jobs that created a feeling of despair among those affected.

“Both of these things have been quite harmful to a very large share of the population,” she said, referencing a range of problems such as increased death rates among some segments, and rising drug use.

Ms. Yellen’s comments about the downside of some big changes in the economy over recent decades were unusually direct.

“Trade can be good, and it has been good,” she said. “But there are losers, and it’s challenging to design interventions that would help the losers.”

Ms. Yellen also said the U.S. financial system is “safer and sounder” than it was before 2008, although another crisis can’t be ruled out, Ms. Yellen said the Fed is spending more time on detecting threats to financial stability, including in places that aren’t subject to regulation. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China’s Hong Kong at 20

Posted by hkarner - 29. Juni 2017

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Europe’s Backyard

Posted by hkarner - 29. Juni 2017

Date: 28-06-2017
Source: DER SPIEGEL

Tensions Rising in Balkans as Hopes for EU Future Fade

Fourteen years after being told they had a future in the European Union, countries in the Western Balkans are losing hope. Meanwhile, Turkish and Russian influence in the region is on the rise. So too is the nationalist rhetoric of old.

The EU’s Fading Attraction in the Balkans

The man who hopes to become the prime minister of Kosovo has a past, documented under case file IT-04-84 at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague. Forty-eight-year-old Ramush Haradinaj, aka Smajl, was accused of crimes against humanity in 37 cases, including murder and torture.

The allegations are from the 1990s, when he was a field commander for the Kosovo Liberation Army (UÇK) in the war against the Serbs. The court ultimately found Haradinaj not guilty, a product of witnesses declining to testify at the last moment or, in some cases, dying suddenly. The United Nations police force in Kosovo has accused the UÇK veteran of dealing cocaine, while Germany’s foreign intelligence service, the BND, described him in a 2005 analysis as being the head of a group involved in „the entire spectrum of criminal activities.“ Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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