Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Archive for 25. April 2017

Nationalbankchef: „Der Brexit wird unterschätzt“

Posted by hkarner - 25. April 2017

Interview András Szigetvari25. April 2017, 07:00 derstandard.AT

Politische Orientierungslosigkeit in den USA und die Folgen eines Brexits sieht Ewald Nowotny als die Bedrohungen für Europas Wirtschaft

Bei der Tagung des Internationalen Währungsfonds in Washington wurden Finanzminister und Notenbanker am vergangenen Wochenende über die größten Bedrohungen für die Weltwirtschaft unterrichtet. Politische Risiken standen dabei im Vordergrund. Nebenbei versuchte die österreichische Delegation mit Nowotny Klarheit über den Kurs der Trump-Regierung zu bekommen.

STANDARD: Welche Entwicklungen bereiten Ihnen derzeit am meisten Sorgen: der Brexit, die protektionistischen Tendenzen in den USA, der Nationalismus in Europa?

Nowotny: Beunruhigend sind aktuell vor allem die Unsicherheiten, die in Bezug auf künftige Maßnahmen der US-amerikanischen Regierung bestehen. Einer unserer Gesprächspartner in Washington hat uns gesagt, dass Trump und sein Team gar nicht erwartet haben, dass sie gewinnen. Sie haben also Wahlprogramme, sind aber nicht darauf vorbereitet, wie es weitergehen soll, und müssen sich das erst mühsam erarbeiten. Das heißt, die größte Ökonomie der Welt könnte für einige Zeit orientierungslos dahinschlingern. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Emmanuel Clinton vs Marine LeTrump

Posted by hkarner - 25. April 2017

Dank an H.F.

2017 04 24 Asia Times, By Pepe Escobar April 24, 2017 9:54 PM (UTC+8)

What’s supposed to be the shock of the new is not exactly so.

Here’s the body count in the latest geopolitical earthquake afflicting the West: The Socialist Party in France is dead. The traditional Right is comatose. What used to be the Extreme Left is alive, and still kicking.
Yet what’s supposed to be the shock of the new is not exactly a shock. The more things veer towards change (we can believe in), the more they stay the same. Enter the new normal: the recycled “system” – as in Emmanuel Macron — versus “the people” — as in the National Front’s Marine Le Pen, battling for the French presidency on May 7.

Although that was the expected outcome, it’s still significant. Le Pen, re-christened “Marine”, reached the second round of voting despite a mediocre campaign.
She essentially reassembled — but did not expand — her voting base. I have argued on Asia Times that Macron is nothing but an artificial product, a meticulously packaged hologram designed to sell an illusion. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Ein interessanter Bericht der Deutschen Bundesbank zur Geldschöpfung

Posted by klausgabriel - 25. April 2017

2017_04_monatsbericht Bundesbank Geldschöpfung

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The Making of Macron

Posted by hkarner - 25. April 2017

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Liberalism in the Trenches

Posted by hkarner - 25. April 2017

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The Coming Technology Policy Debate

Posted by hkarner - 25. April 2017

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New Life for the SDR?

Posted by hkarner - 25. April 2017

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Angst in America, Part 5: The Crisis We Can’t Muddle Through

Posted by hkarner - 25. April 2017

Thoughts from the Frontline, By John Mauldin

April 23, 2017

– Grover Cleveland, the 22nd and 24th president of the United States

“It is your concern when your neighbor’s wall is on fire.”

– Horace

The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist. They assume that something that was a good investment in the recent past is still a good investment. Typically, high past returns simply imply that an asset has become more expensive and is a poorer, not better, investment.

– Ray Dalio, Founder, Bridgewater Associates

When you spend a couple of decades writing weekly letters to hundreds of thousands of people you think of as friends, your readers naturally come to associate you with a few key ideas. I have certainly become known for at least one. My longtime regular readers think of me as the “Muddle Through” guy. That’s not an image I have tried to cultivate, but I have it anyway.

I have to confess that it’s usually accurate. In a typical letter I will describe some sort of potentially scary problem, explain what might happen, then conclude that we’ll probably avoid the worst and muddle through. That has almost always been the right call. The worst doesn’t happen, and we all survive. “Muddle Through” can mean widely varying outcomes for individuals, but for the world at large, things generally work out OK.

As a statistical matter, this stance makes sense. The extreme tails of any distribution curve comprise outcomes that almost certainly won’t occur. The most probable outcomes cluster around the fat middle. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The future: where borrowing is the norm and ownership is luxury

Posted by hkarner - 25. April 2017

Date: 24-04-2017
Source: The Guardian

Turn any idle asset into a productive piece of capital. All you have to do is set a price, and the robots will take care of the rest. What could possibly go wrong?

In the new sharing economy, you might get something resembling the ‘socialized Uber’.

Imagine life without ownership. You own nothing. You rent everything. You do this because it’s cheaper: you pay pennies or fractions of pennies per day to have a bed to sleep in, or a winter coat to keep you warm. You scale up or down as needed: maybe your partner moves in, so you swap your single bed for a queen, or winter ends, so you return your coat. You are always optimizing. You pay for precisely what you use, when you use it – and nothing more.

This is the consummate “sharing economy”, and it might be closer than you think. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Robots won’t just take our jobs – they’ll make the rich even richer

Posted by hkarner - 25. April 2017

Date: 24-04-2017
Source: The Guardian

Robotics and artificial intelligence will continue to improve – but without political change such as a tax, the outcome will range from bad to apocalyptic

Instead of making it possible to create more wealth with less labor, automation might make it possible to create more wealth without labor.

Should robots pay taxes?

It may sound strange, but a number of prominent people have been asking this question lately. As fears about the impact of automation grow, calls for a “robot tax” are gaining momentum. Earlier this month, the European parliament considered one for the EU. Benoît Hamon, the French Socialist party presidential candidate who is often described as his country’s Bernie Sanders, has put a robot tax in his platform. Even Bill Gates recently endorsed the idea. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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