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Archive for 10. März 2017

Donald Trump bedroht Chinas Börsenfrühling

Posted by hkarner - 10. März 2017

Mehr als ein Jahr nach dem Börsencrash in China sehen Analysten eigentlich gute Chancen für eine Erholung des dortigen Aktienmarkts – wäre da nicht Donald Trump.

Ein Handelskrieg mit den USA könnte den Anlegern im chinesischen Jahr des Feuer-Hahns einen Strich durch die Rechnung machen. Wichtig wird Experten zufolge auch sein, ob China nachhaltig und stabil wächst und seine immense Verschuldung sowie den heißgelaufenen Immobilienmarkt in den Griff bekommt.

„Das größte Risiko für Anleger in China liegt in einem möglichen Handelseinbruch infolge protektionistischer US-Politik“, sagt Kate Moore, Chef-Aktienstrategin beim BlackRock Investment Institute (BII). US-Präsident Trump hat der Volksrepublik wiederholt vorgeworfen, den Wechselkurs ihrer Währung zum Dollar künstlich niedrig zu halten, um der chinesischen Exportwirtschaft zu helfen. Das sorge für einen Jobverlust in Amerika. Zudem drohte er mit höheren Importzöllen für Waren aus China. Staatschef Xi Jinping warnt angesichts der harschen Töne bereits vor einem Handelskrieg. „Sollte die neue US-Regierung ihre Ankündigungen wahr machen, drohen ein Handelskonflikt und schwere diplomatische Spannungen zwischen den beiden Großmächten“, sagt Analyst Janis Hübner von der Dekabank. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Turkey’s Death Spiral

Posted by hkarner - 10. März 2017

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New Balkan Instability Rattles EU

Posted by hkarner - 10. März 2017

Date: 10-03-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Growing concerns push region to top of bloc’s summit agenda

Fears are growing in Europe that political stability is unraveling in the western Balkans after years of quiet progress.

Even a year ago, the Balkans, the spark for so many past European conflicts, seemed headed toward a longstanding European Union dream: reformist governments deepening regional cooperation and heading toward membership in the bloc.

Now, with stepped-up Russian interference and the prospect of U.S. disengagement under the Trump administration, the Balkans are again setting off alarms.

A political crisis in Macedonia that some fear could revive ethnic conflict, renewed flare-ups between Serbia and Kosovo, and allegations of a Kremlin-sponsored coup attempt in Montenegro have European officials worrying about what European Council President Donald Tusk on Wednesday called a “destabilization of the region, both from within and from outside forces.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Populism Versus Prosperity

Posted by hkarner - 10. März 2017

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Trump’s Gift to China

Posted by hkarner - 10. März 2017

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What’s a President to Do?

Posted by hkarner - 10. März 2017

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U.K.’s Brexit Walkout Threat Leaves EU Unmoved

Posted by hkarner - 10. März 2017

Date: 09-03-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By SIMON NIXON

EU insists it won’t discuss trade until divorce is done, putting Theresa May at risk of having to carry out her vow to walk away

Prime Minister Theresa May

With the U.K. most likely just days away from formally triggering the Brexit process, Downing Street is rattled. Its anxiety has little to do with the continuing parliamentary debates over the bill to allow the government to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty: Despite two defeats in the House of Lords, senior officials are confident that Article 50 will be triggered as planned by the end of this month. Instead, what is really unnerving Prime Minister Theresa May’s government is the very real possibility that the Brexit negotiations will collapse before they have properly begun, leaving the U.K. to crash out of the EU in 2019 with no deal.

If the European Union continues to insist that it won’t discuss a new trade relationship until the U.K. agrees to an expensive divorce deal, Mrs. May really will walk away, British officials say. The U.K. government is adamant that both deals—divorce and trade—must be negotiated in parallel.

Downing Street has grounds for being rattled, because there is little sign the EU has any intention of giving way. True, the U.K. has some allies. Some senior figures in the German finance ministry, for example, believe the EU should, after a suitable delay, start discussing future trade ties with the U.K. But in the German Chancellery, which calls the shots and appears to have prepared for Brexit almost as intensively as the British government, officials are sticking to the EU script. There is frustration at what some in Berlin see as “deliberate misconceptions” being promoted by the U.K. government, including playing down the complexity of the divorce negotiations. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Democracy in the UK?

Posted by hkarner - 10. März 2017

Photo of Anatole Kaletsky

Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0, The Birth of a New Economy, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations

The unelected House of Lords has defended popular sovereignty in its vote on the Brexit bill. Gavekal Dragonomics’ Anatole Kaletsky thinks requiring parliamentary approval could reopen the debate on Britain’s EU membership.

MAR 9, 2017 Project Syndicate

This week Britain’s House of Lords passed the crucial amendment to Theresa May’s Bill to Exit the European Union that would give Parliament a “meaningful vote” at the end of the Brexit negotiations. This vote could include the option to stop Brexit altogether if the deal she offers is less attractive than remaining an EU member.

This parliamentary maneuver may sound obscure but it matters, because May’s position is that the only choice that she will present to parliament next year will be between accepting whatever deal she manages to negotiate, and crashing out of Europe with no agreement on the divorce terms at all. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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