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Archive for 24. Februar 2017

Why taxing robots is not a good idea

Posted by hkarner - 24. Februar 2017

Date: 23-02-2017
Source: The Economist: Free exchange

Bill Gates’s proposal is revealing about the challenge automation poses

BILL GATES is an unlikely Luddite, however much Microsoft may have provoked people to take a hammer to their computers. Yet in a recent interview with Quartz, an online publication, he expressed scepticism about society’s ability to manage rapid automation. To forestall a social crisis, he mused, governments should consider a tax on robots; if automation slows as a result, so much the better. It is an intriguing if impracticable idea, which reveals a lot about the challenge of automation.

In some distant future robots with their own consciousnesses, nest-eggs and accountants might pay income taxes like the rest of us (presumably with as much enthusiasm). That is not what Mr Gates has in mind. He argues that today’s robots should be taxed—either their installation, or the profits firms enjoy by saving on the costs of the human labour displaced. The money generated could be used to retrain workers, and perhaps to finance an expansion of health care and education, which provide lots of hard-to-automate jobs in teaching or caring for the old and sick. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Mapping the Future of AI

Posted by hkarner - 24. Februar 2017

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It’s Like the Financial Crisis Never Happened…

Posted by hkarner - 24. Februar 2017

Date: 23-02-2017
Source: The Economist

A decade since the U.S. subprime crisis began, and everything’s wonderful on Wall Street

wall-street-ccA decade after the world began to notice the losses on derivatives linked to the toxic waste of structured subprime mortgages, American stocks have produced such big returns that the biggest crash in generations barely registers.

The 10-year average compound return on U.S. shares was 4.9% a year after inflation at the start of 2016, only slightly below the average for world stocks since the end of the Gilded Age in 1900, according to calculations for Credit Suisse by Elroy Dimson,Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of London Business School.

The same isn’t true for the rest of the world. British stocks made only 3% after inflation, including dividends, in the past decade, while real Japanese returns were barely positive and French shares delivered less than 2%. German stocks weren’t quite so bad thanks to its export powerhouses, and their 4.3% return adjusted for inflation is in line with the very long-term return from the world outside the U.S.

This global divergence is covered up by the record highs of global stocks in the past week. On Wednesday morning in London the MSCI All-Country World index was setting another new high after breaking the 2015 high a week ago. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Economists in Denial

Posted by hkarner - 24. Februar 2017

Photo of Robert Skidelsky

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