Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Archive for 1. Februar 2017

Die Arbeitslosen und die Rettung der Zünfte

Posted by hkarner - 1. Februar 2017

Eine echte Lockerung der Gewerbeordnung wäre der beste Jobmotor.

Im Jänner, haben wir gestern erfahren, hatte Österreich mit knapp 500.000 die höchste Arbeitslosenzahl seit Jahrzehnten. Witterungsbedingt, hieß es. Lassen wir einmal so stehen, obwohl man natürlich fragen könnte, wieso Deutschland bei ähnlicher Witterung die niedrigste Arbeitslosenzahl seit 26 Jahren hat. 

Während die Horror-Arbeitslosenzahl die Runde machte, wurde das Reförmchen, das von den ursprünglich recht ambitionierten Gewerbeordnungsreformplänen der Regierung übrig geblieben ist, durch den Ministerrat geschleust.

Sie wissen schon: Kanzler Kern wollte die Zahl der gebundenen Gewerbe von 80 auf 40 halbieren. Am Ende waren es dann 81. Und Vizekanzler Mitterlehner hatte ursprünglich von einem einzigen Gewerbeschein für freie Gewerbe gesprochen. Am Ende waren es dann 440.

Man soll nicht beckmesserisch sein: Auch das Reförmchen bringt eine Menge von Erleichterungen. Bei den Anlagengenehmigungen etwa, die deutlich entbürokratisiert werden.

Aber die große Reform ist das leider nicht. Die haben die Sozialpartner gekillt. Speziell die Wirtschaftskammer, die etwa beim einheitlichen Gewerbeschein für alle freien Gewebe ein ernstes Finanzierungsproblem bekommen hätte. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Advertisements

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , | Leave a Comment »

Trump und der Welthandel: „China ist sehr alarmiert“

Posted by hkarner - 1. Februar 2017

Experten sind der Meinung, der neue US-Präsident provoziere einen Handelskrieg. Die Auseinandersetzung mit Peking gehe auch an Europa, Osteuropa und Österreich nicht spurlos vorbei.

Xi Jinping CCChina´s Präsident Xi Jinping –

Wien. Die Drohgebärden werden von Tag zu Tag extremer: Der neue US-Präsident, Donald Trump, sorgt mit dem Einreiseverbot für Bürger aus sieben muslimischen Ländern für heftige Kritik aus der politischen Öffentlichkeit. Ebenso harsche Reaktionen löst er mit seinen Plänen für Einfuhrzölle auf ausländische Waren aus.

Aber es geht nicht nur um neue Zölle – Hürden im globalisierten Wirtschaftsgefüge: Trump hat just China, das Schwergewicht jenseits des Pazifiks, das einen Handelsüberschuss von 365,7 Milliarden Dollar mit den Vereinigten Staaten aufweist, aufs Korn genommen. China drehe an der Währungsschraube, um seine Exporte billig zu halten, China agiere mit – unfairen – staatlichen Subventionen, China stehle intellektuelles Eigentum: Diese Vorwürfe Trumps blieben in Peking nicht unerwidert. Präsident Xi Jinping hat ganz klar und deutlich dem Protektionismus eine Absage erteilt.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Geldschöpfung aus dem Nichts – Realität oder Chimäre?

Posted by hkarner - 1. Februar 2017

Gero Jenner, 1. Februar 2017, update 4. FebruarJenner

Sehr geehrte Damen/ Herren,

es fehlte immer noch der Beweis, dass die Vollgeldtheorie von Prof. Joseph Huber auf einem Denkfehler beruht. Jetzt ist er vorhanden. Siehe unten: 

Von der Geldschöpfung aus dem Nichts, wie sie angeblich die Notenbanken betreiben, war schon die Rede. Jetzt geht es um die Geschäftsbanken.

Grundsätzlich sind Geschäftsbanken in der Lage, auf dem Wege der so genannten Bilanzverlängerung Kredit aus dem Nichts zu schöpfen, bei entsprechender Nachfrage vonseiten der Kreditnehmer wäre ihnen dies sogar in unbegrenztem Ausmaße möglich. Die Frage ist nur, ob sie es tun, genauer gesagt, ob es sich für sie lohnt, das zu tun.

Wer diese Frage entscheiden will, muss zwei Situationen deutlich trennen und sie gegeneinander abgrenzen. Erstens, den Fall eines intensiven Wettbewerbs zwischen Geschäftsbanken A bis Z und, zweitens, den Fall einer monopolistischen Geschäftsbank A, die als einzige unterhalb der Notenbank übrig bleibt.

Eine monopolistische Geschäftsbank schöpft Kredit aus dem Nichts Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in weitere Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , | 3 Comments »

Toyota Still Biggest Car Maker by Measures that Matter

Posted by hkarner - 1. Februar 2017

Date: 01-02-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Volkswagen stole Toyota’s crown, but investors may not care

Car buffs, journalists and economists pay a lot of attention to unit-car statistics, but investors shouldn’t—just look at Volkswagen’s rise to the top of the official league table of manufacturers.

Toyota, which overtook General Motors in the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers’ ranking in 2008 for the first time, announced Monday that it produced 10.21 million cars in 2016. Earlier in January, Volkswagen said it delivered 10.31 million vehicles to dealers in 2016. Assuming deliveries are a decent proxy for production, the German car maker has surpassed Toyota to become, for the first time, the world’s largest car maker.

China is the key reason. Volkswagen and GM dominate the Chinese market, each producing more than three times more cars than Toyota. Since the Chinese market is by far the world’s largest and grew 15% in 2016—far faster than other markets—this was a decisive advantage.

toyota-ranking-2016Still, ranking car makers by the number of vehicles they produce generates little more than bragging rights. The number of vehicles sold would be a better benchmark of commercial success than the number produced—if only the industry weren’t rife with reports of manipulated sales statistics.

Even production is a slippery concept. According to figures unearthed by blogger Bertel Schmitt, Toyota also makes hundreds of thousands of cars on behalf of other companies. Add in the 212,846 cars Toyota’s Daihatsu unit made in 2016 for Malaysia’s top brand, Perodua, and the Japanese company would still be the world’s largest car maker.

Really, the industry ought to ignore unit figures altogether. This might reduce the incentive to fiddle with them, but mainly it would put more emphasis on profitability. Not all sales are equal: premium brands typically make several thousands of dollars for each vehicle; more basic brands only a few hundred, trucks, which are counted in most statistics, sometimes upward of $10,000.

Volkswagen’s historic hunger for volumes led it to sacrifice the margins of its namesake brand, which were just 1.6% outside of China for the first nine months of 2016. Chasing unit sales may have also created the corporate atmosphere that led to the 2015 emissions scandal, which is likely to cost the company more than $20 billion.

What matters more for investors is that Toyota’s stock-market value is more than twice that of Volkswagen’s. Never mind official industry statistics, Toyota is still by far the world’s largest car maker.

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Is the Deflation Cycle Over?

Posted by hkarner - 1. Februar 2017

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , | Leave a Comment »

Harnessing the Politics of Disruption

Posted by hkarner - 1. Februar 2017

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

A Blunt and Counterproductive Travel Ban

Posted by hkarner - 1. Februar 2017

Published on January 28, 2017, Bloomberg ViewEl-Erian

Some bold and simple policies have merit; Friday’s executive order that temporarily bans the citizens of certain countries from coming to the U.S., and stops indefinitely the entry of Syrian refugees, is not one of them.

As designed and implemented, there are genuine doubts about the order’s effectiveness in meeting its stated objective of preventing terrorism. It also risks a lot of collateral damage and unintended consequences that ultimately could prove counterproductive and harmful to national security, the economy, and America’s moral authority, values and standing in the world. Even the order’s merits as a domestic signal are in doubt, and it risks damaging the credibility and effectiveness of future policy initiatives from the White House.

The travel ban is succinctly stated: “To protect the American people from terrorist attacks by foreign nationals admitted to the United States.” With immediate effect, it forbids entry for specified periods of time to citizens from seven countries (Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen).  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , | Leave a Comment »

GE Chief: Globalization Isn’t Over, It Is the End of the ‘Global Elite’

Posted by hkarner - 1. Februar 2017

Date: 28-02-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Mr. Immelt says GE can manage its way through a challenging environment in part by continuing to pare away excess cost
Immelt ccJeff Immelt, chief executive officer of General Electric

The political world may be roiling with revolt against the forces of globalization, but General Electric Co. says it isn’t giving up.

In his annual letter to investors, released Monday, Chief Executive Jeff Immelt said the conglomerate’s transformation over the past decade has enabled it to profit from increasingly important international markets for its jet engines and power turbines—while withstanding a growing political movement against the economic effects of free trade.

“Are we witnessing the end of globalization? I don’t think so,” Mr. Immelt writes. “It is the end of the ‘global elite,’ those who see the world only from financial centers or a website.”

By contrast, in Mr. Immelt’s telling, GE is expanding its footprint in foreign markets for its industrial goods, but not simply seeking out “wage arbitrage” from shifting factories overseas in search of cheaper labor.

“In this period of nationalization, GE’s competitive advantage will grow. We don’t need trade deals, because we have a superior global footprint,” he writes. “We see many giving up on globalization; that means more for us.”

Mr. Immelt also revealed that the continuing pain from low oil prices—long a drain on the company’s oil and gas unit—have pinched executives’ pockets as well. The compensation plan for executives only paid out 80% of its target amounts in 2016, Mr. Immelt wrote, adding that it will motivate executives to do better in 2017.

“Normally, we expect our diversified model to shrug off headwinds in one market and continue to achieve our goals,” he said. “In 2016, we simply couldn’t outrun pressure in the resource markets.”

GE’s global and U.S. workforce shrunk during 2016, according to securities filings. GE employed 104,000 people at 184 American facilities at the end of last year, compared with 125,000 at 206 American factories at the end of 2015.

The company had 30 more factories outside the U.S., which it said was the result of acquiring the energy business of France’s Alstom SA. GE said its decline in American head count was primarily due to the sale of its home appliances unit and finance businesses, as well as job cuts in its oil and gas and locomotive units.

Mr. Immelt’s annual missive is an occasion for study by GE investors, one in which he has in recent years extolled efforts to transform GE by weaning it off profits from financial services, and in seeking out new foreign markets for its industrial goods.

One conspicuous absence this year: a promise of $2 in earnings per share in 2018, a longtime goal of management that has become increasingly unlikely to be achieved in the view of some Wall Street analysts.

Jeffrey Bornstein, GE’s finance chief, noted in an investor conference last week that a change in accounting standards would create a headwind for GE’s per-share earnings in 2018. The response, from analysts at Bernstein Research: “Time for expectations to reset if they haven’t already.”

Mr. Immelt said GE can manage its way through a challenging environment in part by continuing to pare away excess cost. The company has also snapped up suppliers, including firms that make 3-D printing machines for airplane parts. The result, in Mr. Immelt’s telling, is a more vertically integrated industrial giant that will own more of the profits from its massive machines when they are sold.

The letter comes at a sensitive time for corporate executives unnerved by the rhetoric of President Donald Trump, especially his willingness to attack companies that have shifted jobs outside the U.S., or even simply expanded existing facilities in other countries.

Mr. Immelt has so far shown a knack for avoiding Mr. Trump’s Twitter ire while maneuvering close enough to influence the administration on areas of GE’s interest, like corporate tax reform. Mr. Immelt made his first visit to the Trump White House last week, where he and the president shared an anecdote for the cameras about Mr. Trump hitting a hole in one.

Other industrial executives haven’t been as lucky. United Technologies Corp., parent of Carrier Corp., told investors earlier this month that it was planning a six-month pause in facility restructuring, as it awaits the outcome of the Trump administration’s planned tax overhaul.

“Over the past generation, the U.S. has done very little to help our manufacturers or workers,” Mr. Immelt writes, arguing that current tax policies favor imports, regulations have expanded and infrastructure is subpar. “We are hopeful the new administration will ‘level the playing field’ for U.S. companies.”

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

The Markets Don’t Believe in Trump for the Long Term

Posted by hkarner - 1. Februar 2017

Date: 31-01-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The yield curve tells a story of Trumpflation, a boost to both growth and inflation lasting a few years, with little long-term impact on the real economy

Investing is about two things: deciding what is likely to happen, and comparing it to what’s priced in to markets. The discussion about what’s likely to happen under President Donald Trump has dominated all media since his election, and every investor has their own view. What’s important, then, is to compare it to what’s priced in.

One chart cuts through all the chatter. The yield curve in the all-important Treasury market tells a story of Trumpflation, a boost to both growth and inflation lasting a few years, with little long-term impact on the real economy.

“People have pushed up their expectations about growth, but it’s more of a cyclical view than a structural view,” said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Why the EU Must Be Generous to Britain

Posted by hkarner - 1. Februar 2017

 

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , | Leave a Comment »