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Archive for 23. Dezember 2016

The Many Hurdles to an Orderly Brexit

Posted by hkarner - 23. Dezember 2016

Date: 22-12-2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal by Simon Nixon

Businesses should be preparing for the scenario that the U.K. crashes out of the EU without a deal, Simon Nixon writes

It was like pulling teeth, but Theresa May did eventually admit to a parliamentary committee this week that her government was preparing for all Brexit scenarios, including the possibility that the U.K. crashes out of the European Union in 2019 without securing any deal with the bloc at all. This should hardly come as a surprise. Not only is it a standard principle of deal-making to identify your Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement, but the possibility that the U.K. might be forced to fall back on its Brexit BATNA is alarmingly high. Perhaps the U.K. and EU will be unable to agree on a deal, or the EU unable to ratify what has been agreed upon.

Businesses should be preparing for this worst-case scenario, too—but there is scant evidence this is happening, judging by the output of the various industry lobby groups. Their submissions to the government invariably focus solely on their ideal negotiated outcome. In almost every case, this amounts to a plea to preserve the status quo—or as much of it as possible. After 43 years of EU membership, most sectors in Britain are deeply integrated into pan-European supply chains and are broadly content with EU regulation, which is seen as high quality, predictable and trusted by customers and consumers. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Not so welcome: views on globalisation

Posted by hkarner - 23. Dezember 2016

Date: 22-12-2016
Source: The Economist

attitudes-towards-globalizationData from a recent YouGov survey of 19 countries revealed that the West is increasingly turning its back on globalisation. Less than half of respondents in America, Britain and France believe it is a “force for good”. Westerners—even Americans, generally an optimistic lot—also say the world is getting worse. The turn towards nationalism is especially pronounced in France, where 52% of the population now believes the economy should not have to rely on imports, and just 13% reckon immigration is a good thing. While the young tend to hold more left-wing economic views, they are keener on the idea of globalisation, broadly conceived, thanks to their more positive attitudes towards multiculturalism. In America, 46% of those aged 18-34 think that immigrants have had a positive effect on their country, compared with just 35% of those aged 55 and over. Hope for liberalism in the West now lies with its millennials.

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Bring Back Jobs From China? In Shenzhen, They Aren’t That Worried

Posted by hkarner - 23. Dezember 2016

Date: 22-12-2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal

As Donald Trump presses companies on U.S. manufacturing, city that became poster child for globalization has learned to adapt to economic shifts

SHENZHEN, China—U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to compel Apple Inc. and others to manufacture more at home should strike fear into this Chinese megacity where many of the world’s high-tech gadgets are made.

Once a sleepy village, Shenzhen today is the sprawling epicenter of China’s consumer-electronics industry, the country’s top export. At two Foxconn Technology Group factories here, some 230,000 workers make gear for Apple and global rivals, including Chinese communications giant Huawei Technologies Co., which has its base in Shenzhen.

Yet many executives here say they aren’t worried by Mr. Trump. The economic forces that transformed this once-poor backwater in Guangdong province into a sea of skyscrapers are too massive to be rolled back, their thinking goes. Even if Mr. Trump imposes tariffs on Chinese-made goods, as he has threatened to do, it’s now so efficient to engineer, produce and ship electronics from this region of southern China that it could still outcompete the U.S., they say. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Coming Brexit Tragedy

Posted by hkarner - 23. Dezember 2016

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