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Archive for 3. Dezember 2016

Italian Referendum: What to Expect?

Posted by hkarner - 3. Dezember 2016

by on December 2, 2016  RGE EconoMonitorpezzuto

So what went wrong?

Why did it happen?

Probably many analysts and economic commentators have concentrated their attention mainly on the media coverage “firepower” each candidate (USA presidential election) or supporters of the Yes/No vote (UK referendum) have been granted prior to the election or referendum, or on the astonishing financial contributions they received for their very aggressive political campaigns.

They have also probably expected that most people, faced with the perceived potential negative outcome of the election or referendum (at least from the perspective of most analysts and economists), and the high level uncertainty about the political consequences of a “Brexit” scenario or Donald Trump’s victory (i.e. more restrictions on immigrations policies, changes in the global trade policies, repeal of the Obamacare and Dodd-Franc Act’s, etc.), would have not dared to take a contrarian view or voting preference from the general propaganda of mainstream opinion leaders, political and leading financial institutions’ heavyweights, and elites. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Investor Bill Gross: Bargeld ist der einzige sichere Hafen in der Krise

Posted by hkarner - 3. Dezember 2016

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten  | 

Die Anleihe-Experten Bill Gross und Jeff Gundlach warnen Investoren eindrücklich: Auch Trump könne keine Wunder bewirken, es drohe ein Crash, Investoren sollten ins Bargeld wechseln.

 Anleihe-Experten Jeff Gundlach und Bill Gross warnen Investoren vor deutlichen Korrekturen an den Aktien- und Anleihemärkten. Die in die Wirtschaftspolitik Donald Trumps gesetzten großen Hoffnungen würde enttäuscht werden. Investoren sollten zudem einen Teil ihrer Gelder in bar halten.

„Ein starker Dollar und die nach wie vor bestehenden strukturellen Probleme wie die Alterung der Gesellschaft, eine Rückkehr des Protektionismus, massive Schulden überall auf der Welt und jetzt höhere Anleihezinsen sorgen dafür, dass die Produktivität maximal 1 Prozent jährlich wächst und das Wirtschaftswachstum deshalb nicht mehr als 2 Prozent zulegen wird“, schrieb Gross in einer E-Mail, die Bloomberg vorlag. „Investoren sollten zu Bargeld und Bargeld-Alternativen wechseln.“ Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Das Tweet zur Bundespräsidentenwahl

Posted by hkarner - 3. Dezember 2016


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Mad as hell: A perfectly timed book on populism

Posted by hkarner - 3. Dezember 2016

Date: 01-12-2016
Source: The Economist

John Judis has written a powerful account of the forces shaking Europe and America

The Populist Explosion: How the Great Recession Transformed American and European Politics. By John Judis. Columbia Global Reports; 182 pages; $12.99 and £8.99.

POPULISM has already upended the politics of the West. Americans have elected a president who has described NATO as “obsolete” and accused China of ripping off their country. Europe’s second-largest economy, Britain, is preparing to leave the European Union (EU). But the populist revolution still has a long way to go. The far-right Sweden Democrats have been near the top of polls in a country that is synonymous with bland consensus. Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s National Front, a party that wants to take France out of the euro and hold a referendum on France’s membership of the EU, is a shoo-in for the final round of the presidential election.

The Western intelligentsia, snug in its echo-chamber, has done a dismal job of understanding what is going on, either dismissing populists as cranks or demonising them as racists. John Judis, an American author and journalist, is an admirable exception. “The Populist Explosion” is an extended think-tank report rather than an airport bestseller. It’s also an excellent read: well-written and well-researched, powerfully argued and perfectly timed. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Asleep at the Wheel

Posted by hkarner - 3. Dezember 2016

Date: 02-12-2016

German Leaders at Odds with Industry over Electric Cars

The government in Berlin fears that German automobile companies are lagging behind as electric cars pick up speed around the world. Faced with immense challenges and the potential loss of tens of thousands of jobs, the industry is still pushing its gas guzzlers.

It just looked like an inconspicuous entry about a draft law on the Chinese Industry Ministry’s website. No one in Berlin noticed it until an attentive diplomat at the German Embassy in Beijing came across it and rang the alarm. Luckily, the person best positioned to address the matter was already on a plane to China.

German Economics Minister Sigmar Gabriel was on his way to the country to discuss German-Chinese trade with the China’s leaders, but after news of the draft law made the rounds of the minister’s delegation, they couldn’t stop wondering: Could this really be true? Would every seventh automobile sold in China soon be required to be electric — and as if that weren’t enough, would it also have to be manufactured primarily by companies owned by Chinese citizens? And what would that mean for German manufacturers? Would they be driven out of their most important market? „This is like a bomb dropping,“ groaned one German industry representative. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italy: Willingness to Reform Is the Issue, Not the Referendum

Posted by hkarner - 3. Dezember 2016

By on December 1, 2016  RGE EconoMonitor

Italy: Willingness to Reform Is the Issue, Not the Referendum

 Key takeaway – Italy’s prospects are lacklustre, growth is stagnant. Focused on privilege preservation, the political system fosters anti-establishment feelings. Reforms are needed but – due to a reluctant electorate and a cumbersome legislative process – are difficult to implement. Cognizant of the country’s challenges, over the past three years Renzi’s government announced many important reforms, but implemented few. According to Renzi, the ineffectiveness of the legislative process is the culprit; hence, tackling institutional paralysis is the key priority. On Sunday December 4, Italy will hold a constitutional referendum to streamline lawmaking. The ‘No’ camp, an heterogeneous coalition of political forces, questions both the substance and the process of the proposed reforms and is ahead in the opinion polls. The referendum is likely to be rejected by a narrow margin. Political, economic and market concerns of a ‘no’ vote are overblown. Yes, the political process would become more uncertain, the economy would keep stagnating and market volatility would temporarily rise. But in the short term nothing will change. To enhance the long term competitiveness of its economy, Italy needs a comprehensive modernization. In other words, passing laws is a necessary, but not sufficient condition. Government needs to show willingness to reform, and burn political capital in getting transformational laws through parliament.  

Growth is stagnant … The Italian economy is large and diversified[1]. Yet, growth is hampered by long-standing rigidities: a) demographics are unfavorable[2]; b) established power structures hinder meritocracy and risk taking; c) innovation is limited and total factor productivity (TFP) often negative[3]; d) labor laws are rigid and costly; e) wage growth is above productivity growth[4]; f) the public sector is inefficient, burdened by a sclerotic bureaucracy[5]; g) over-regulation, backdoor dealings, crony politics, corruption and organized crime hamper economic performance; h) the judicial system is slow[6]; i) at 132.7 percent of GDP, public debt is larger than ever[7], perhaps too big to rescue; l) taxes are high[8]. As a result, per capita GDP is stuck at the level of the late 1990s and growth is sluggish: over 2016-21, Italy’s economy is expected to grow at around 0.8-1 percent[9]. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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