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Archive for 26. Oktober 2016

Umfrage: Deutsche haben eine Alternative zu Merkel gefunden

Posted by hkarner - 26. Oktober 2016

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten  | 

Steinmeier ccMit Frank-Walter Steinmeier gibt es erstmals einen Politiker, den die Deutschen mehrheitlich lieber als Bundeskanzler sähen als Angela Merkel.

Bundesaußenminister Frank-Walter Steinmeier hätte einer Umfrage zufolge als einziger möglicher SPD-Kanzlerkandidat die Chance, Amtsinhaberin Angela Merkel (CDU) zu schlagen. Könnten die Deutschen den Kanzler direkt wählen, würden sich der am Mittwoch veröffentlichten Insa-Erhebung für das Magazin „Cicero“ 28 Prozent für Steinmeier entscheiden und nur 23 Prozent die CDU-Vorsitzende Angela Merkel. Alle anderen denkbaren SPD-Kandidaten würden demnach der Kanzlerin unterliegen.

EU-Parlamentspräsident Martin Schulz liegt im direkten Vergleich mit Merkel bei 17 zu 24 Prozent. SPD-Chef und Vizekanzler Sigmar Gabriel läge bei 14 zu 27 Prozent, Hamburgs Erster Bürgermeister Olaf Scholz bei 14 zu 26 Prozent. Die SPD will Anfang kommenden Jahres entscheiden, wer als SPD-Kanzlerkandidat antritt.

Für die Umfrage wurden im INSA-Meinungstrend in der Zeit vom 30. September bis zum 3. Oktober online insgesamt 2049 Wahlberechtigte befragt.

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African economies are growing at very different speeds

Posted by hkarner - 26. Oktober 2016

Date: 26-10-2016
Source: The Economist

New numbers from the IMF tell a tale of two Africas

HOW are sub-Saharan African economies doing? It depends on where you look, says the IMF in its latest survey of the continent, which is published today. Regional growth will slow to just 1.4% this year, the most sluggish pace for two decades.

Things look grim in Nigeria, which is mired in recession. But Ivory Coast, a short flight away, is thundering along at a growth rate of 8%. Similar contrasts are found across the continent. Better to talk of two Africas, says the IMF, moving at different speeds.

growth-african-statesThe big divider is resources. As commodity prices have slumped, so too have the fortunes of big exporters. As a group, resource-rich countries will grow on average by 0.3% of GDP, says the IMF. Take oil-rich Angola, once the fastest-growing country on the continent: it will not grow at all this year, and is wrestling with inflation of 38%. Commodity-exporting countries saw the value of their exports to China almost halve in 2015. Public debt is rising sharply. Exchange rates are falling. Private consumption has collapsed.

Things look very different in countries which are less resource-dependent. They will grow at 5.5% this year. They have been helped, of course, by falling oil prices, which makes their imports cheaper. But they are stronger in other ways too. In east Africa, for example, a wave of public investment in infrastructure has boosted demand.

Governments cannot set commodity prices. Nor can they stop drought, which has hit agriculture in countries such as Ethiopia and Malawi. But their decisions do make a difference. Nigeria’s disastrous attempt to prop up its exchange rate hurt far more than it helped. Investors in Mozambique were unimpressed when the country revealed hidden debts in April. Growth in South Africa has slowed to almost zero amid political wrangles and an energy crisis. Now is the time to get the policies right, urges the IMF.
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Theresa May’s Nasty Britain

Posted by hkarner - 26. Oktober 2016

Photo of Mark Leonard

Mark Leonard

Mark Leonard is Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

OCT 25, 2016 Project Syndicate

LONDON – British Prime Minister Theresa May once warned her fellow Conservatives of the perils of being known as the “nasty party.” But after 100 days in office, she is in danger of going further, turning the United Kingdom into the nasty country.

In just a few months, May has launched attacks on “international elites” and decided to prioritize immigration controls over single-market access in negotiating the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union. At one point recently, companies faced the threat of being compelled to furnish a list of their foreign workers. And the 3.5 million European citizens who are settled in the UK were left to worry about whether May’s government would guarantee their residence rights. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Biggest Money Mistakes We Make—Decade by Decade

Posted by hkarner - 26. Oktober 2016

Date: 25-10-2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Our financial errors vary by age. Here’s a look at what we get wrong and how to do better.

Our relationship to money changes as we get older. So do the mistakes that we make with it.

Every new stage of life brings new financial strategies we need to follow. And at every stage we find new ways not to follow those strategies, costing ourselves money and jeopardizing our security.

What’s more, economic and demographic changes ensure that those mistakes aren’t static, so that the mistakes of the current generations aren’t the same missteps that their predecessors struggled to avoid.

For instance, when we’re first starting out in our careers, we need to be aggressive with our investing so we can build a nest egg that grows over decades. But research shows today’s 20-somethings hold back on investing or make very conservative moves, because they’re uncomfortable with big risks.

Meanwhile, these days more people are waiting until their 30s to take big plunges like marriage and children. That means a lot of complex financial questions piling up all at once, and many opportunities to mess up. In their 40s, people often fail to pay down a mortgage quickly enough, leaving them covering the costs into retirement. And they don’t pay enough attention to how college expenses—or the cost of providing for children and aging parents at the same time—will affect their finances. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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„Ein Schritt zur Zerstörung der EU“

Posted by hkarner - 26. Oktober 2016

Date: 25-10-2016
Source: Der Spiegel

Zusammengefasst: Die Ceta-Blockade der Wallonen ist für die EU eine Blamage ersten Ranges, sie verliert einen Teil ihrer Glaubwürdigkeit in der internationalen Handelspolitik. Ob das Abkommen mit Kanada noch eine Chance hat, und wie es mit der EU-Handelspolitik insgesamt weitergeht, ist derzeit unklar.

Die belgische Region Wallonie blockiert das Ceta-Abkommen mit Kanada, die EU ist blamiert. Wie geht es jetzt weiter? Experten fürchten Schlimmes – auch für Verträge mit den USA, China oder Großbritannien.

Noch vor wenigen Tagen wirkte der Streit über Ceta wie so viele andere EU-Konflikte: Im Grunde sind sich alle einig, nur in letzter Minute versuchen noch Einzelne, ein paar Vorteile herauszupressen. Am Ende aber wird man sich schon einigen.

So ähnlich, davon gingen sowohl die EU-Kommission als auch Brüsseler Diplomaten und die Bundesregierung aus, würde es auch mit der Blockadehaltung der Wallonie gegen Ceta laufen. Doch da irrten sie sich: Die südbelgische Region blockiert den Handelsvertrag mit Kanada noch immer, und der EU droht das vielleicht größte Debakel in der Geschichte ihrer Außenhandelspolitik. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Blind Alley of Monetary Populism

Posted by hkarner - 26. Oktober 2016

Photo of Jeffrey Frankel

Jeffrey Frankel

Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, previously served as a member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers. He directs the Program in International Finance and Macroeconomics at the US National Bureau of Economic Research, where he is a member of the Business Cycle Dating Committee, the official US arbiter of recession and recovery.

OCT 25, 2016 Project Syndicate

SWARTHMORE – In the United States and elsewhere nowadays, populist politicians often claim that easy monetary policy is hurting ordinary workers, thereby exacerbating income inequality. But while inequality is a problem, raising interest rates is no way to address it. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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