Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Archive for 15. Oktober 2016

Why the Economy Doesn’t Roar Anymore

Posted by hkarner - 15. Oktober 2016

Date: 15-10-2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The long boom after World War II left Americans with unrealistic expectations, but there’s no going back to that unusual Golden Age

The U.S. presidential candidates have made the usual pile of promises, none more predictable than their pledge to make the U.S. economy grow faster. With the economy struggling to expand at 2% a year, they would have us believe that 3%, 4% or even 5% growth is within reach.

But of all the promises uttered by Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton over the course of this disheartening campaign, none will be tougher to keep. Whoever sits in the Oval Office next year will swiftly find that faster productivity growth—the key to faster economic growth—isn’t something a president can decree. It might be wiser to accept the truth: The U.S. economy isn’t behaving badly. It is just being ordinary.

Historically, boom times are the exception, not the norm. That isn’t true just in America. Over the past two centuries, per capita incomes in all advanced economies, from Sweden to Japan, have grown at compound rates of around 1.5% to 2% a year. Some memorable years were much better, of course, and many forgettable years were much worse. But these distinctly non-euphoric averages mean that most of the time, over the long sweep of history, people’s incomes typically take about 40 years to double. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Gefährliche Klimaschulden

Posted by hkarner - 15. Oktober 2016

   Date: 15-10-2016

Durch den Klimavertrag von Paris soll die Erderwärmung auf „deutlich unter zwei Grad“ begrenzt werden. Forscher warnen, dass dieses Ziel auf viel zu optimistischen Annahmen beruht.

Man müsse sich, sagt Glen Peters, die Sache ungefähr so vorstellen wie damals die Immobilienkrise in den USA. Damals hätten viele Menschen Kredite aufgenommen, die sie sich mit ihrem Einkommen eigentlich nicht leisten konnten. Gleichzeitig hätten die Leute die Hoffnung gehabt, in ein paar Jahren durch steigende Hauspreise reich zu werden – und dann eben doch die Kredite bedienen können. Bei vielen sei die Rechnung dann aber nicht aufgegangen. Eine Pleitewelle folgte, von der sich die Weltwirtschaft auf Jahre nicht erholte.

Und genauso so etwas drohe beim Weltklima. Denn auch da sei die Menschheit auf dem besten Weg sich zu verschulden, so der Forscher – und möglicherweise auch in diesem Fall zu stark. Nur dass die Folgen hier weit dramatischer sein könnten als nach einer geplatzten Immobilienblase. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Resolving Europe’s Banking Crisis in Italy

Posted by hkarner - 15. Oktober 2016

Photo of Lucrezia Reichlin

Lucrezia Reichlin

Lucrezia Reichlin, a former director of research at the ECB, is Professor of Economics at the London Business School.

Photo of Shahin Vallée

Shahin Vallée

Shahin Vallée, a former economic advisor to the French Minister of Economy, is a senior economist at Soros Fund Management.

OCT 14, 2016

LONDON – The European banking sector is crippled and highly fragmented. Though its problems are more acute for some countries and financial institutions, the sector runs on a level of profitability that is, on average, lower than its cost of equity and maintains a stock of non-performing loans and hard-to-value assets large enough to undermine its capitalization for years to come.

Italy is a case in point. Not only is its dysfunctional banking sector undermining economic recovery and inhibiting investment; the sector’s troubles are the sharp end of a problem that affects the entire eurozone.

By the spring of 2012, it had become clear that the European banking system was a critical weak point in the euro’s architecture. Common banking supervision, a centralized resolution framework, and a mutualized deposit-guarantee scheme were understood to be necessary pillars of the eurozone. It was thought that these measures would help in the short term to accelerate bank repair, and that they would end financial fragmentation, establish a level playing field, reduce the risk of future banking crises, and ultimately contain and share the costs of banking failures.

But the road to hell is paved with good intentions. The European banking union, in its current state, is not only incomplete; its design flaws have made it a source of inaction and instability potentially worse than the ills it was intended to cure. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How Trump Happened

Posted by hkarner - 15. Oktober 2016

Photo of Joseph E. Stiglitz

Joseph E. Stiglitz

Joseph E. Stiglitz, recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2001 and the John Bates Clark Medal in 1979, is University Professor at Columbia University, Co-Chair of the High-Level Expert Group on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress at the OECD, and Chief Economist of the Roosevelt Institute. A former senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank and chair of the US president’s Council of Economic Advisers under Bill Clinton, in 2000 he founded the Initiative for Policy Dialogue, a think tank on international development based at Columbia University. His most recent book is The Euro: How a Common Currency Threatens the Future of Europe.

OCT 14, 2016 Project Syndicate

NEW YORK – As I have traveled around the world in recent weeks, I am repeatedly asked two questions: Is it conceivable that Donald Trump could win the US presidency? And how did his candidacy get this far in the first place?

As for the first question, though political forecasting is even more difficult than economic forecasting, the odds are strongly in favor of Hillary Clinton. Still, the closeness of the race (at least until very recently) has been a mystery: Clinton is one of the most qualified and well prepared presidential candidates that the United States has had, while Trump is one of the least qualified and worst prepared. Moreover, Trump’s campaign has survived behavior by him that would have ended a candidate’s chances in the past.

So why would Americans be playing Russian roulette (for that is what even a one-in-six chance of a Trump victory means)? Those outside the US want to know the answer, because the outcome affects them, too, though they have no influence over it.

And that brings us to the second question: why did the US Republican Party nominate a candidate that even its leaders rejected? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Second thoughts on Europe: After Brexit, Bregret

Posted by hkarner - 15. Oktober 2016

Date: 14-10-2016
Source: The Economist

A minority of Leavers have changed their minds. Others are bailing out

SINCE the Brexit referendum victory on June 23rd by 52% to 48%, the Leave side has told “Remoaners” to stop whingeing about the result: the win was slim but clear enough. Yet new evidence suggests that more than a few Leavers are having second thoughts about how they cast their ballots.

The British Election Study, a long-running panel survey, asked voters in July whether they regretted their choice. Only 1% of Remainers did; another 1% of them were unsure. Among Leavers, 6% wished they had not voted the way they did, and a further 4% were in two minds.

That may not be much—and the authors point out that voters for the winning side feel some regret after most elections—but it suggests that the slim pro-Brexit majority had evaporated within a month of the referendum. Remorse was strongest among Leavers who didn’t expect their side to win, adding some weight to the idea that many were motivated by frustration with the establishment rather than by Euroscepticism. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Brexit Faces Legal Challenge in U.K. High Court

Posted by hkarner - 15. Oktober 2016

Date: 14-10-2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Case comes amid pressure on government to give lawmakers a bigger say on Brexit process

LONDON—The main legal challenge over Brexit kicked off in a packed courtroom on Thursday, as pressure mounted on the government to give lawmakers a vote on how the U.K.’s withdrawal from the European Union will be carried out.

The case marks the most significant effort by opponents since the Brexit referendum, as they argue that though voters chose to leave the bloc, Parliament should have a say in the negotiations on what the future EU-U.K. relationship will look like.

In a sign of how the issue has divided the country, noisy protesters on both sides gathered outside the U.K. High Court as proceedings began.

At the heart of case is the question of whether the Conservative-led government has the authority to unilaterally trigger the formal mechanism for leaving the EU, known as Article 50, without prior approval from Parliament. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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