Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Archive for 13. Februar 2016

Das goldene Ostgeschäft der Banken

Posted by hkarner - 13. Februar 2016

 Sehr gut recherchiert! Chapeau! (hfk)

 Warum die österreichischen Banken für ihre Expansionswut teuer bezahlen – und wie sie sich trotzdem eine goldene Nase verdienen

Text und Produktion: Simon Moser | Video: Maria von Usslar, Simon Moser | Grafiken: Markus Hametner, Wolfram Leitner13. Februar 2016, 09:00  derstandard.at

Kreditausfälle, Abschreibungen, Rückzug: Hiobsbotschaften dominieren seit Jahren die Schlagzeilen zum Osteuropageschäft der österreichischen Banken. Dazu gehören vor allem hohe Verluste in einzelnen Ländern, außerdem mit Hypo Alpe Adria und Volksbanken AG die Abwicklung gleich zweier Bankengruppen wegen ihres Auslands-Fiaskos. Man könnte meinen, der Osten wurde für den Bankensektor vom Eldorado zum Milliardengrab. DER STANDARD hat sich angesehen, wie die Bilanz dieses Engagements tatsächlich aussieht – zehn Jahre nach dem Höhepunkt der Expansion und sieben Jahre, nachdem Österreich im Gerede gestanden ist, wegen der hohen Ostrisiken ein Kandidat für eine Staatspleite zu sein. Eine Chronologie von Gewinnern, Verlierern und unvertretbar hohen Risiken.

I – Going East: Die Boomphase Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Submerging-Market Threat

Posted by hkarner - 13. Februar 2016

Photo of Anders Åslund

Anders Åslund

Anders Åslund is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, DC, and the author, most recently, of Ukraine: What Went Wrong and How to Fix It.

FEB 11, 2016, Project Syndicate

WASHINGTON, DC – It is time to put the rise of the emerging economies in perspective. The rapid economic growth in much of the developing world since the beginning of the century was fueled by a commodity boom and an overextension of credit. But, because the emerging-market boom was not accompanied by sufficient structural reforms, it was not sustainable.

Today, most of the major emerging economies have experienced a severe reversal of fortune. Russia and Brazil have plunged into severe crises, with double-digit inflation accompanying a 4% contraction in GDP last year. South Africa is barely growing. China’s phenomenal rate of expansion has slowed to below 7%. Unsurprisingly, Goldman Sachs has closed its money-losing BRIC fund for investment in Brazil, Russia, India, and China.

Indeed, the future of the BRICS (including South Africa) – and that of other emerging markets – looks gloomy. Outside of Asia, most developing economies are principally commodity exporters, and thus are highly exposed to price shocks. Plunging oil prices have cut the value of the Russian ruble by more than half against the US dollar, and further declines appear likely – especially if the US Federal Reserve continues to hike interest rates. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Fixing a sovereignless currency

Posted by hkarner - 13. Februar 2016

Agnès Benassy-Quéré 12 February 2016, voxeu

Professor, Paris School of Economics

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Putin, the Pope, and the Patriarch

Posted by hkarner - 13. Februar 2016

Photo of Nina L. Khrushcheva

Nina L. Khrushcheva

Nina L. Khrushcheva, the author of Imagining Nabokov: Russia Between Art and Politics and The Lost Khrushchev: A Journey into the Gulag of the Russian Mind, is Professor of International Affairs and Associate Dean for Academic Affairs at The New School and a senior fellow at the World Policy Institute.

FEB 12, 2016, Project Syndicate

NEW YORK – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s years as a KGB officer taught him how to take advantage of others. In Steven Lee Myers’ excellent new biography, The New Tsar, the former New York Times Moscow bureau chief describes how, when Putin was posted in East Germany in the waning years of communism, he used his opponent’s weaknesses to advance the Soviet cause.

Today’s historic meeting between Pope Francis and Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill in Cuba is another occasion that Putin will seek to turn to his advantage. The meeting will be the first between a Roman Pontiff and a Russian Patriarch since Christianity’s Great Schism in 1054, when theological differences split the faith into its Western and Eastern branches. Since then, the Orthodox Church (in Russian, Pravoslavie, literally the “right worship”) has been considered the only correct form of Christianity in Russia, with other denominations dismissed for their support of individualism and insufficient reverence of the human soul. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Greece: Toward a Workable Program

Posted by hkarner - 13. Februar 2016

Posted on by iMFdirect

poul-thomsen1By Poul M. Thomsen

Having successfully pulled Greece from the brink last summer and subsequently stabilized the economy, the government of Alexis Tsipras is now discussing with its European partners and the IMF a comprehensive multi-year program that can secure a lasting recovery and make debt sustainable. While discussions continue, there have been some misperceptions about the International Monetary Fund’s views and role in the process. I thought it would be useful to clarify issues.

It is argued that the IMF has made its participation dependent on socially draconian reforms, especially of the pension system. This is not the case. Ultimately a program must add up: the combination of reforms plus debt relief must give us and the international community reasonable assurances that by the end of Greece’s next program, after almost a decade of dependence on European and IMF assistance, Greece will finally be able to stand on its own. This implies an inverse trade-off between ambition of reforms and strength of debt relief—we can certainly support a program with less ambitious reforms, but this will inevitably involve more debt relief. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why Britain’s EU budget burden is no longer a valid Eurosceptic gripe

Posted by hkarner - 13. Februar 2016

Date: 12-02-2016
Source: The Economist
Subject: The Brexit debate: The budget that didn’t bark

Tusk Cameron CCHey small spender: Tusk and Cameron

DAVID CAMERON is frantically working to secure agreement at next week’s European Union summit to proposals recently set out by Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, to satisfy British demands for reform of the EU. The prime minister hopes a deal will allow him to hold his planned referendum on Britain’s EU membership in late June.

One striking contrast with past British rows over Europe is the lack of any fuss over money. In Harold Wilson’s renegotiation of 1975, and again when Margaret Thatcher asked for her money back in 1979, Britain’s budget contribution was the central issue. Its absence this time may seem surprising, since it is an article of faith among Eurosceptics that Britain pays too much for its membership: some £20 billion ($28 billion) a year gross, or about half that net of receipts (roughly 0.5% of GDP).

There are three explanations. The first is that, contrary to myth, the EU budget is modest, less than 1% of GDP. And it has been shrinking, not growing. The budget is smaller as a share of GDP than in the 1990s, even though the club has taken in ten poor countries from eastern Europe. Thanks partly to British parsimony, the multiyear budget in 2014-20 will also cut spending. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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