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Archive for 10. Februar 2016

Verwaltungskosten in Österreich 50 Prozent über EU-Schnitt

Posted by hkarner - 10. Februar 2016

10. Februar 2016, 14:21 derstandard.at

Bürokratie, Steuerlast, Reformstau dämpfen laut Umfrage die Investitionslust österreichischer Manager. Industriechef Kapsch ist besorgt

Wien – Pessimistische Wirtschaftseinschätzungen im Rahmen einer Befragung heimischer Manager nahmen Industriellenpräsident Georg Kapsch und PwC-Partner Aslan Milla am Mittwoch zum Anlass, die Defizite bei den unternehmerischen Standortfaktoren aufs Korn zu nehmen. In der von PwC durchgeführten Umfrage kam zum Vorschein, dass nur 38 Prozent der österreichischen Vorstandschefs – die Rede war von rund 30 Befragten – heuer eine Verbesserung beim Wachstum erwarten. Weltweit waren es 60 Prozent.

Österreichische Manager beurteilen auch die Steuerbelastung, Verschuldung und Überregulierung deutlich negativer als ihre internationalen Pendants oder auch deutsche Firmenchefs. Kapsch nannte den Befund vor Journalisten „horribel“ und verlieh seiner Sorge um den Standort Ausdruck. Die Unternehmen zögerten angesichts sich ständig verschlechternder Rahmenbedingungen bei den Investitionen, obwohl Bereitschaft grundsätzlich vorhanden sei.

Verschreckte Investoren Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Heta: Kärnten versucht zu drohen

Posted by hkarner - 10. Februar 2016

10.02.2016 | 16:05 |  (Die Presse)

Wenn Heta-Gläubiger das Rückkaufangebot Kärntens nicht annehmen, werde es „jahrelange Prozesse“ geben, droht Landesrätin Schaunig (Foto).

Schaunig CCWien. Genau heute in einem Monat, am 11. März, läuft das vom Bund gestützte Rückkaufangebot Kärntens für die Anleihen der Hypo-Bad-Bank Heta ab. Nach wie vor besteht jedoch eine breite Ablehungsfront bei den Gläubigern, die – sofern sie hält – zu einem Scheitern des Angebots führen würde. Das wäre nicht nur für Kärnten ein Problem, sondern auch eine Blamage für Finanzminister Hans Jörg Schelling. Die Nervosität scheint daher zu steigen. So kam am Mittwoch die zuständige Finanzlandesrätin, Gaby Schaunig, eigens nach Wien, um den aus heimischer Sicht renitenten Investoren noch einmal die Rute ins Fenster zu stellen.

„Bei einer Ablehnung wird juristisches Neuland betreten. Und wir sind darauf bestens vorbereitet“, so Schaunig. Die Gläubiger müssten sich daher auf einen jahrelangen Rechtsstreit einstellen, in dem Kärnten sämtliche Möglichkeiten bis zum Ende ausschöpfen werde. Dabei sei nicht einmal außer Streit gestellt, dass die Haftungen Kärntens gültig sind. „Und selbst wenn die Gläubiger obsiegen, wird viel des Kärntner Vermögens für Prozesskosten verloren gehen“, sagt Schaunig.

Zweidrittelmehrheit nötig Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Fair Chance for DiEM 2025!

Posted by hkarner - 10. Februar 2016

Tuesday, February 9, 2016, Observing GreeceKastner

I have once before written about Yanis Varoufakis‘ Democracy in Europe Movement 2025 (DiEM 2025). It was based on the first draft of DiEM’s manifesto. The final version of the manifesto now reflects major changes. For starters, someone must have advised Varoufakis that it may not be such an awesome idea to begin the manifesto with one of the most famous quotes of Karl Marx („A spectre is haunting Europe…“).

The official Opening Ceremony is taking place as I write these lines. I wonder if the organizers were aware of the fact that today is probably the most important day in the carneval season in German speaking countries („Faschingsdienstag“). I suppose there will be cheap shots tomorrow reporting that the start of DiEM 2025 was the best carneval joke.

I have decided for myself that I will observe the development of DiEM 2025 as objectively as I can. That will be quite a challenge for me because I obviously have prejudices when it comes to Varoufakis‘ endeavors. But I will try hard! Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Banco Popolare: Weniger Rückstellungen für Kredite, erstmals wieder Gewinne

Posted by hkarner - 10. Februar 2016

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten  | 

Italiens viertgrößte Bank Banco Popolare hat im vergangenen Jahr zum ersten Mal seit fünf Jahren wieder einen Gewinn erwirtschaftet. Möglich wurde dies, weil durch Abschreibungen fauler Kredite in Millionenhöhe weniger Risiko-Rückstellungen nötig waren. Allerdings stehen immer noch faule Darlehen von rund 14 Milliarden Euro in den Büchern der Bank.

Italiens viertgrößtes Geldhaus Banco Popolare hat im vergangenen Jahr dank geringerer Kreditrückstellungen wieder Gewinne erwirtschaftet, wie Reuters am Mittwoch meldete. Es sei demnach ein Gewinn von 430 Millionen Euro erzielt worden nach einem fast zwei Milliarden Euro hohen Verlust im Vorjahr, teilte das Finanzinstitut am Dienstag nach Börsenschluss mit. Banco Popolare kündigte an, eine Dividende von 15 Cent je Aktie zu zahlen. Das letzte Mal war im Geschäftsjahr 2010 eine Ausschüttung an die Aktionäre erfolgt. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Putin is No Ally Against ISIS

Posted by hkarner - 10. Februar 2016

Photo of George Soros

George Soros

George Soros is Chairman of Soros Fund Management and Chairman of the Open Society Foundations. A pioneer of the hedge-fund industry, he is the author of many books, including The Alchemy of Finance, The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What it Means, and The Tragedy of the European Union.

FEB 10, 2016, Project Syndicate

MUNICH – The leaders of the United States and the European Union are making a grievous error in thinking that President Vladimir Putin’s Russia is a potential ally in the fight against the Islamic State. The evidence contradicts them. Putin’s current aim is to foster the EU’s disintegration, and the best way to do so is to flood the EU with Syrian refugees.

Russian planes have been bombing the civilian population in southern Syria forcing them to flee to Jordan and Lebanon. There are now 20,000 Syrian refugees camped out in the desert awaiting admission to Jordan. A smaller number are waiting to enter Lebanon. Both groups are growing.

Russia has also launched a large-scale air attack against civilians in northern Syria. This was followed by a ground assault by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s army against Aleppo, a city that used to have 2 million inhabitants. The barrel bombs caused 70,000 civilians to flee to Turkey; the ground offensive could uproot many more. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Economics Professor: Negative Interest Rates Aimed at Driving Small Banks Out of Business and Eliminating Cash Posted on February 9, 2016 by WashingtonsBlog

Posted by hkarner - 10. Februar 2016

Dank an H.F.

More than one-fifth of the world’s total GDP is in countries which have imposed negative interest rates, including Japan, the EU, Denmark, Switzerland and Sweden.

Negative interest rates are spreading worldwide.

And yet negative interest rates – supposed to help economies recover – haven’t prevented Japan and Europe’s economies from absolutely tanking.

Nor have they even stimulated spending. As ValueWalk points out:

Japan has had ultra-low rates for years and its economy has been terrible. Trillions of debt in Europe now trades at negative interest rates and its economy isn’t exactly booming.  Denmark, Sweden and Switzerland all have negative interest rates, but consumer spending isn’t going up there. In fact, savings rates have been going up in lockstep with the decrease in interest rates, exactly the opposite of what the geniuses at the various central banks expected.

Why is this happening? Simply, savers are scared. Lower interest rates have wrecked their retirement plans. Say you were doing some financial planning 10 years ago and plugged in 3% from your savings account.  Now its 0%.  You still have to plan for your retirement. Plug in 0%. What happens to your planning now?  0% compounded for X years is 0%.  The math is simple. So in order to have your target savings at retirement, you need to save more, not spend more. But for some reason, the economists that run central banks around the world can’t see this. They are all stuck in their offices talking to one another and self-reinforcing this myth that they can drive spending up by reducing the rate of return on investments.  Want to see consumer spending go up?  Don’t wreck their savings plans so that they are too scared to spend.  But that’s too simple. Instead, central banks use a chain of causation that doesn’t exist to try to create change 3 or 4 steps down the line. It hasn’t worked, and it won’t work. It isn’t in an individual’s self-interest to go out and spend their money on more “stuff” in order to spur economic growth. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China’s Exchange-Rate Trap

Posted by hkarner - 10. Februar 2016

Photo of Barry Eichengreen

Barry Eichengreen

Barry Eichengreen is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley; Pitt Professor of American History and Institutions at the University of Cambridge; and a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. His latest book is Hall of Mirrors:The Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the Uses – and Misuses – of History.

FEB 9, 2016, Project Syndicate

NEW YORK – For months now, China’s exchange-rate policy has been roiling global financial markets. More precisely, confusion about that policy has been roiling the markets. Chinese officials have done a poor job communicating their intentions, encouraging the belief that they don’t know what they’re doing.

But criticizing Chinese policy is easier than offering constructive advice. The fact is that China’s government no longer has any good options. No question, the country would be better off with a more flexible exchange rate that eliminated one-way bets for speculators and acted as an economic shock absorber. But the literature on “exit strategies” – on how to replace a currency peg with a more flexible exchange rate – makes clear that the moment when China could have navigated this transition smoothly has now passed. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Deutschland boomt – immer noch oder schon wieder?

Posted by hkarner - 10. Februar 2016

09. Februar 2016 l l

Hier erneut meine Lieblingsgraphik (Quelle: Deutsche Bundesbank). Die Zahlen zur Produktion im produzierenden Gewerbe (Industrie- plus Bauproduktion) für Dezember 2015 sind gerade erschienen. Wieder zeigt sich, welche ungeheure „Dynamik“ die „boomende“ deutsche Wirtschaft an den Tag legt.

Proddez

Gerade das letzte Quartal 2015 hat für die deutsche Industrie einen großen Durchhänger gebracht, nur die Bauproduktion lief etwas besser. Aber die Statistiker in Wiesbaden haben ja für das Bruttoinlandsprodukt 2015 schon positive Zahlen errechnet (ohne das letzte Quartal wirklich zu kennen!) und die werden sie sicher nicht nach unten korrigieren wollen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Case for Breaking Up Too-Big-To-Fail Banks

Posted by hkarner - 10. Februar 2016

By on February 9, 2016, RGE EconoMonitor dolan-1

The presidential campaign has brought new attention to the problem of banks that are too big to fail (TBTF). As everyone agrees, the largest banks are bigger than ever. As the following chart shows, the share of all bank assets held by the four largest banks rose from 33 percent in 2007 to 41 percent by 2015. Over the same period, the combined assets of the four largest banks, as a share of GDP, grew from 28 percent to 40 percent.

P160125-1

The major candidates disagree, not on whether the largest banks are too big to fail, but on what to do about it. Senator Bernie Sanders has made breaking up the banking giants a centerpiece of his campaign. Hillary Clinton favors a continuation of the regulatory approach embodied in the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010. The GOP candidates favor an approach that combines deregulation with market discipline.

Sanders’ anger at the banks seems to resonate well with voters, but influential voices in the media skeptical. The Editorial Board of the Washington Post has argued against breaking up the big banks. The New York Times has done likewise, prominently featuring an opinion piece written by Steve Eisman, a managing director of the investment firm Neuberger Berman. Politico also thinks breaking up the banks would be a bad idea. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Euro Is Now Back Where It Was Before QE Began

Posted by hkarner - 10. Februar 2016

Date: 09-02-2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal

When the European Central Bank announced its quantitative easing scheme last January, the euro plummeted to its lowest level in 13 years.

One year on, the euro is back where it started, raising more questions about the effectiveness of central bank action in the current climate.

On a trade weighted basis the euro is now once again more valuable than it was on the day for the ECB’s bond-buying program was laid out.

The trade-weighted measure compares the euro’s value to a basket of other currencies.

While the ECB has no official target for the euro’s exchange rates, a strengthening currency is bad news for a bank that believes that wants to increase inflation. A strong euro also makes European goods less competitive in global markets.

The ECB is not the only central bank struggling to convince markets. The Bank of Japan is likewise finding it harder to lower the value of the yen through monetary easing. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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