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Archive for 24. Januar 2016

Wirtschaftsforum in Davos: Die Welt bangt um Europa

Posted by hkarner - 24. Januar 2016

Date: 24-01-2016
Source: SPIEGEL

Wie steht es um Europa? Schlimm, wenn man der Stimmung beim Weltwirtschaftsforum in Davos glaubt. In den Augen vieler droht der Kontinent auseinanderzudriften. Die letzte Hoffnung ruht auf Angela Merkel.

George Soros ist nicht gerade das, was man einen Optimisten nennt. Aber so düster wie an diesem Abend in Davos klang der 85-Jährige Multimilliardär schon lange nicht mehr. Die Lage sei Besorgnis erregend, sagt Soros mit brüchiger Stimme. „Die Europäische Union fällt auseinander.“ Wenn die EU es nicht schaffe, eine gemeinsame Asylpolitik zu formulieren, werde der Konflikt die Gemeinschaft sprengen.

Der legendäre Investor mag der einzige sein, der seine Sorge um Europa öffentlich so drastisch formuliert. Doch allein ist er mit seinem Pessimismus nicht. Selten war die Stimmung beim Weltwirtschaftsforum in den Schweizer Alpen so schlecht wie in diesem Jahr – und die Unsicherheit so groß. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Greece – A Surprise For 2016?

Posted by hkarner - 24. Januar 2016

Saturday, January 23, 2016, Observing Greece Kastner

„I believe 2016 will be the year that Greece will surprise the world economic community, Alexis Tsipras declared in Davos. Could he turn out to be right?

Well, I suppose he meant ’surprise‘ in a positive way. And, yes, he could turn out to be right. Providing, of course, his government remains stable throughout the year.

I have no hard facts to support my position but I cannot ignore what happened in 2015. By all standards, Greece fell into political and economic chaos in 2015, at least during the first half of the year. In those days, it was clear to everyone that the small primary surplus of 2014 would evaporate and turn into a mega primary deficit in 2015, and that a small projected 2015 GDP growth would turn into a GDP decline to the tune of 3-4%. I do not recall any more positive projections. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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To Darken Your Morning

Posted by hkarner - 24. Januar 2016

Tom Friedman, NYT, 23/1Friedman1

ZURICH — Just get me talking about the world today and I can pretty well ruin any dinner party. I don’t mean to, but I find it hard not to look around and wonder whether the recent turmoil in international markets isn’t just the product of tremors but rather of seismic shifts in the foundational pillars of the global system, with highly unpredictable consequences.

What if a bunch of eras are ending all at once?

What if we’re at the end of the 30-plus-year era of high growth in China, and therefore China’s ability to fuel global growth through its imports, exports and purchases of commodities will be much less frothy and reliable in the future?

“Now that this debt bubble is unwinding, growth in China is going offline,” Michael Pento, president of Pento Portfolio Strategies, wrote on CNBC.com last week. “The renminbi’s falling value, cascading Shanghai equity prices (down 40 percent since June 2014) and plummeting rail freight volumes (down 10.5 percent year over year) all clearly illustrate that China is not growing at the promulgated 7 percent, but rather isn’t growing at all. The problem is that China accounted for 34 percent of global growth, and the nation’s multiplier effect on emerging markets takes that number to over 50 percent.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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