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Archive for 5. Januar 2016

The Transitions of 2016

Posted by hkarner - 5. Januar 2016

Photo of Christine Lagarde

Christine Lagarde

Christine Lagarde is Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund. She previously served as France’s finance minister from 2007-2011, and in 2009 was named by the Financial Times as the best finance minister in the eurozone.

JAN 5, 2016, Project Syndicate

WASHINGTON, DC – November’s terrorist attack in Paris and the influx of refugees into Europe are but the latest symptom of sharp political and economic tensions in North Africa and the Middle East. And these events are by no means isolated. Conflicts are raging elsewhere, too, and there are close to 60 million displaced people worldwide.

Moreover, 2015 was expected to be one of the hottest years on record, with an extremely strong El Niño that has spawned weather-related calamities across the Pacific. And the arrival of interest-rate normalization in the United States, together with China’s slowdown, is contributing to uncertainty and higher economic volatility worldwide. Indeed, there has been a sharp deceleration in the growth of global trade, with the drop in commodity prices posing problems for resource-based economies. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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5 Reasons to Be Scared of the Market Selloff

Posted by hkarner - 5. Januar 2016

Date: 05-01-2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Investors’ anxiety has been on full display on the first day of trading for 2016

There’s nothing quite like fireworks to ring in 2016. Global markets took a dive to start the first trading session of the year, sparked by a rout in Chinese equities. A weak economic indicator in the world’s second-largest economy helped push the Shanghai Composite Index down 6.9% before trading was halted. Several markets suffered around the world. Here are some of the factors at play:

1. China Is Huge Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The World Economy’s Labor Pains

Posted by hkarner - 5. Januar 2016

Photo of Kaushik Basu

Kaushik Basu

Kaushik Basu, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank, is Professor of Economics at Cornell University.

JAN 4, 2016, Project Syndicate

WASHINGTON, DC – The ongoing global economic slowdown, which began in 2008 with the financial crisis in the United States, could set a new endurance record. What is certain is that with growth stalling in Japan and slowing in China, and with Russia in deep crisis and the eurozone still barely recovering, the world economy is not yet out of the woods.

This “persistent recession,” as well as some of the world’s political conflicts, are manifestations of a deeper shift in the global economy – a shift driven by two kinds of innovations: labor-saving and labor-linking.

Although labor-saving innovation has been with us for a long time, the pace has picked up. Global sales of industrial robots, for example, reached 225,000 in 2014, up 27% year on year. More transformative, however, is the rise of “labor-linking” technology: digital innovations over the last three decades now enable people to work for employers and firms in different countries, without having to migrate. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Europe Question in 2016

Posted by hkarner - 5. Januar 2016

Photo of Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

JAN 4, 2016, Project Syndicate

NEW YORK – At the cusp of the new year, we face a world in which geopolitical and geo-economic risks are multiplying. Most of the Middle East is ablaze, stoking speculation that a long Sunni-Shia war (like Europe’s Thirty Years’ War between Catholics and Protestants) could be at hand. China’s rise is fueling a wide range of territorial disputes in Asia and challenging America’s strategic leadership in the region. And Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has apparently become a semi-frozen conflict, but one that could reignite at any time.

There is also the chance of another epidemic, as outbreaks of SARS, MERS, Ebola, and other infectious diseases have shown in recent years. Cyber-warfare is a looming threat as well, and non-state actors and groups are creating conflict and chaos from the Middle East to North and Sub-Saharan Africa. Last, but certainly not least, climate change is already causing significant damage, with extreme weather events becoming more frequent and lethal. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Another Slow Year for the Global Economy

Posted by hkarner - 5. Januar 2016

Photo of Ashoka Mody

Ashoka Mody

Ashoka Mody is Visiting Professor of International Economic Policy at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University and a visiting fellow at Bruegel, the Brussels-based economic think tank. He is a former mission chief for Germany and Ireland at the International Monetary Fund.

JAN 4, 2016, Project Syndicate

WASHINGTON, DC – Last April, the International Monetary Fund projected that the world economy would grow by 3.5% in 2015. In the ensuing months, that forecast was steadily whittled down, reaching 3.1% in October. But the IMF continues to insist – as it has, with almost banal predictability, for the last seven years – that next year will be better. But it is almost certainly wrong yet again.

For starters, world trade is growing at an anemic annual rate of 2%, compared to 8% from 2003 to 2007. Whereas trade growth during those heady years far exceeded that of world GDP, which averaged 4.5%, lately, trade and GDP growth rates have been about the same. Even if GDP growth outstrips growth in trade this year, it will likely amount to no more than 2.7%. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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