Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Archive for 1. Januar 2016

A Year of Sovereign Defaults?

Posted by hkarner - 1. Januar 2016

Photo of Carmen Reinhart

Carmen Reinhart

Carmen Reinhart is Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.

DEC 31, 2015 Project Syndicate

MIAMI – When it comes to sovereign debt, the term “default” is often misunderstood. It almost never entails the complete and permanent repudiation of the entire stock of debt; indeed, even some Czarist-era Russian bonds were eventually (if only partly) repaid after the 1917 revolution. Rather, non-payment – a “default,” according to credit-rating agencies, when it involves private creditors – typically spurs a conversation about debt restructuring, which can involve maturity extensions, coupon-payment cuts, grace periods, or face-value reductions (so-called “haircuts”).

If history is a guide, such conversations may be happening a lot in 2016. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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2016’s global wealth forecast

Posted by hkarner - 1. Januar 2016

Date: 30-12-2015
Source: The Economist

Emerging markets gdp growthEMERGING markets have given the global economy most of its muscle since the recession ended in 2009. But in 2016 rich countries will account for their largest share of global growth this decade. The BRICs are in a sorry state. Brazil’s government has been both incompetent and corrupt. Russia’s has been no better, with a dose of military malevolence thrown in. China will perform reasonably well in 2016—if you believe the government’s numbers. By that reckoning, its GDP will rise by around 6.5%. The reality almost certainly will be lower. China is mired in debt and has mismanaged its currency and stockmarkets, sending shocks through the global economy. India looks perkier: it will grow by more than 7%. But that is worse than its average of 8.5% growth between 2005 and 2010. All said, the BRICs will make up only 16% of worldwide growth in 2016.

Against all this, the rich world will look solid, if unspectacular. America’s economy will expand by around 2.5%, and the American jobs machine will crank out at least 2m new positions for a sixth straight year—the first time that has happened since the 1990s. Europe will no longer be threatened by recession or deflation, and the euro zone’s most obvious time-bomb, Greece, has been defused for now. The world economy hasn’t managed growth of more than 4% since 2010. Save for America, 2016 will be another year of repair, recovery, reform and risk for most countries.

World GDP Growth Forecast

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How will global industry fare in 2016?

Posted by hkarner - 1. Januar 2016

Date: 30-12-2015
Source: The Economist

Industry FC 2016AS WAS the case in 2015, spending in Asia will underpin the growth of many industries worldwide in 2016. Global trade is likely to expand at around 3%, slightly faster than in 2015, but far below the dizzying 8-9% rates before the financial crisis.

Health-care spending will surge in Asia. Health networks will spread in India as the country works towards building an insurance-based system. China, with 12% growth, will extend its coverage deeper into the countryside, while more rich urbanites will visit private doctors.

In the automotive industry, developed markets are trundling along—but in western Europe even 3% growth in 2016 is almost exhilarating by post-recession standards. By contrast central and eastern Europe will motor along with growth of 9%. Russia, following a few years in the pits, will recover. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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