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Archive for 29. Oktober 2015

Der lange Schatten des Josef Ackermann

Posted by hkarner - 29. Oktober 2015

29.10.2015 | 18:45 | Von Gerhard Hofer (Die Presse)

Die Deutsche Bank streicht 9000 Jobs, steuert auf einen Milliardenverlust zu und zahlt erstmals seit 80 Jahren keine Dividende. Sie zahlt die Rechnung für den Größenwahn, der in der Ära Ackermann als Geschäftsmodell gedient hat.

Ackermann VictoryWien. „25 Prozent Eigenkapitalrendite vor Steuern.“ Mit diesem Credo trat der frühere Deutsche-Bank-Chef Josef Ackermann im Februar 2005 an die Öffentlichkeit. Diese 25Prozent Rendite trug er wie eine Monstranz vor sich her. Für weniger sei er nämlich nicht zu haben.

Zehn Jahre später klingen Ackermanns Vorgaben wie ein Hohn. Der neue Konzernchef heißt John Cryan. Am Donnerstag hatte er seinen ersten großen Auftritt. Nachdem das dritte Quartal einen Rekordverlust von sechs Milliarden Euro ausgewiesen hat, kommt der nun verkündete Sparkurs nicht unerwartet. Die nackten Zahlen haben es dennoch in sich: Die Deutsche Bank wird von derzeit 100.000auf etwa 70.000 Mitarbeiter schrumpfen. 9000 Jobs – davon 4000 in Deutschland – werden gestrichen. Auch viele externe Dienstleister werden „redimensioniert“ – wie der Verlust von Arbeitsplätzen in der Managersprache heißt. Weitere 6000 Jobs weniger. Und schließlich wird sich die Deutsche Bank von ihrer Tochter Postbank und ihren 20.000 Mitarbeitern trennen. Das Institut soll nächstes Jahr an die Börse gebracht werden.

Für die Aktionäre hat Cryan wenig zu bieten. Erstmals seit dem Jahr 1934 wird die Deutsche Bank keine Dividende zahlen. Auch im kommenden Jahr werden die Shareholder leer ausgehen. Vom Kurseinbruch ganz zu schweigen. Allein gestern büßte die Aktie zwischenzeitlich sieben Prozent ein. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Climate’s Point of No Return

Posted by hkarner - 29. Oktober 2015

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Javier Solana

Javier Solana was EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Secretary-General of NATO, and Foreign Minister of Spain. He is currently President of the ESADE Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics,Distinguished Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Europe.

OCT 29, 2015, Project Syndicate

MADRID – When it comes to climate change, the world has reached a point of no return. That may sound ominous, but it is precisely where we need to be: unable to continue retreading old ground, we must resolutely set our future path.

An important first step will come at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 21) in Paris in November and December, where world leaders will agree on the most important international agreement on climate governance in more than 20 years. Yet important decisions remain to be made in charting a course toward a new and dynamic low-carbon economy, one capable of supporting a fast-growing and increasingly prosperous global population in the long term.

With citizens, business, and governments worldwide finally recognizing the universal nature of climate change, the outlook for this year’s conference is substantially more positive than it was prior to the last attempt to reach a comprehensive global agreement, at the 2009 Copenhagen summit (COP 15). To be sure, the challenge ahead is as broad as it is complex; but it is becoming increasingly clear that making the transition to a low-carbon economy will bring considerable economic benefits. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Resurrecting Glass-Steagall

Posted by hkarner - 29. Oktober 2015

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Simon Johnson

Simon Johnson, a former chief economist of the IMF, is a professor at MIT Sloan, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and co-founder of a leading economics blog, The Baseline Scenario. He is the co-author, with James Kwak, of White House Burning: The Founding Fathers, Our National Debt, and Why It Matters to You.

OCT 29, 2015, Project Syndicate

WASHINGTON, DC – A major shift in American politics has taken place. All three of the remaining mainstream Democratic presidential candidates now agree that the existing state of the financial sector is not satisfactory and that more change is needed. President Barack Obama has long regarded the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial-reform legislation as bringing about sufficient change. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Senator Bernie Sanders, and former Governor Martin O’Malley want to do even more.

The three leading Democratic candidates disagree, however, on whether there should be legislation to re-erect a wall between the rather dull business of ordinary commercial banking and other kinds of finance (such as issuing and trading securities, commonly known as investment banking). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe’s Politics of Dystopia

Posted by hkarner - 29. Oktober 2015

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Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

OCT 29, 2015, Project Syndicate

TOKYO – The recent victory of the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party in Poland confirms a recent trend in Europe: the rise of illiberal state capitalism, led by populist right-wing authoritarians. Call it Putinomics in Russia, Órbanomics in Hungary, Erdoğanomics in Turkey, or a decade of Berlusconomics from which Italy is still recovering. Soon we will no doubt be seeing Kaczyńskinomics in Poland.

All are variations on the same discordant theme: a nationalist leader comes to power when economic malaise gives way to chronic and secular stagnation. This elected authoritarian then starts to reduce political freedoms through tight-fisted control of the media, especially television. Then, he (so far, it has always been a man, though France’s Marine Le Pen would fit the pattern should she ever come to power) pursues an agenda opposing the European Union (when the country is a member) or other institutions of supra-national governance.

He will also oppose free trade, globalization, immigration, and foreign direct investment, while favoring domestic workers and firms, particularly state-owned enterprises and private business and financial groups with ties to those in power. In some cases, outright nativist, racist parties support such government or provide an even deeper authoritarian and anti-democratic streak. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Bailouts Lead to Weaker Economies

Posted by hkarner - 29. Oktober 2015

By , and on October 28, 2015 , RGE EconoMonitor

Government bailouts of banks may have made Europe’s fragile economic stability worse rather than better, according to new large-scale research.

In addition, a widespread expectation of government support makes banks more vulnerable to collapse.

The research, led by Dr Renatas Kizys, an economist at the University of Portsmouth, is the first to suggest large-scale rescues of banks does not stabilise the banking sector or a country’s economy but instead appears to have the opposite effect.

The study is published in the Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S104244311500102X.

Dr Kizys said: “The results go against conventional wisdom but we have found clear evidence of a strong two-way loop between banks facing a crisis and governments stepping in to help them resulting in a higher cost to the public sector. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Posted by hkarner - 29. Oktober 2015

Wednesday, October 28, 2015, Observing GreeceKastner

The Farce Of Greek Sovereign Debt

A very interesting paper by Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch. Of the many points they make, one of the overriding themes is a theme which I have made since the beginning of this blog, namely:

The critical issue is not necessarily the sovereign debt of a country. Instead, the critical issue is the foreign debt of the entire country, not only the foreign debt of the state. What the state (and others) owe domestically is one cup of tea which can be solved domestically. An entirely different cup of tea is what the state (and others) owe cross-border. 

If all of Greece’s sovereign debt had been owed domestically (technically, this would have been possible back in 2010 because there were then enough domestic savings to finance the entire sovereign debt), there would have been only little excitement between Paris, Brussels, Frankfurt and Berlin. And if all of it had been owed to banks on Mars, no one in Europe would have cared. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Deutsche Bank streicht 15.000 Stellen

Posted by hkarner - 29. Oktober 2015

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten  |  |

Ein Großteil der Stellenstreichungen im Privatkundengeschäft der Deutschen Bank trifft den Heimatmarkt Deutschland. Allein in Deutschland will die Bank etwa 4000 Stellen abbauen.

Noch unter dem alten Vorstand hatte der Dax-Konzern im April beschlossen, bis Ende 2017 etwa 200 der 700 eigenen Filialen zu schließen. Dies werde vor allem Ballungsräume treffen, aus der Fläche wolle sich die Bank nicht zurückziehen, betonte Sewing: „Wir werden weiterhin mit über 500 Filialen in Deutschland präsent sein und damit die Fläche sehr gut abdecken.“

Alte und neue Skandale halten die Deutsche Bank weiter im Bann. Für die Aufarbeitung der juristischen Altlasten hat sie inzwischen 4,8 Milliarden Euro zur Seite gelegt, wie das Institut am Donnerstag mitteilte. Allein im dritten Quartal mussten neue Rückstellungen für Rechtsstreitigkeiten über 1,2 Milliarden Euro gebildet werden. Das trug zu dem Rekordverlust von sechs Milliarden Euro bei. „Ein absolut enttäuschendes Ergebnis“, kommentierte der neue Vorstandschef John Cryan. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How Obama Could Beat the Debt Ceiling and Go Out a Hero

Posted by hkarner - 29. Oktober 2015

Posted on by Ellen BrownBrown Ellen, Web of Debt Blog

Until the control of the issue of currency and credit is restored to government and recognized as its most conspicuous and sacred responsibility, all talk of the sovereignty of Parliament and of democracy is idle and futile.

                  — Canadian Prime Minister William Lyon Mackenzie King, 1935

On November 3rd, the US government will again run out of money due to a debt ceiling artificially imposed by Congress. This is the third time in four years that a radical faction has taken the country to the brink of default to extort concessions that are at best only marginally related to the budget.

The debt ceiling is an unconstitutional gimmick that violates the 14th amendment, which says the validity of the government’s debt shall not be questioned. The debt was incurred by Congress when it passed the budget, and the money has been borrowed and spent. Congress cannot now refuse to pay.

One good gimmick deserves another. The debt ceiling could be eliminated for good, by restoring to the government its constitutional authority to create money. Article 1, Section 8, provides: “The Congress shall have the power to coin money [and] regulate the value thereof . . . .” The president could pay the government’s bills by issuing some large denomination coins by executive order.

When the Constitution was ratified, coins were the only officially recognized legal tender. By 1850, coins made up only about half the currency. Today, they make up less than one-half of one percent of the money supply – about 50 billion out of a $12 trillion circulating money supply (M2). These coins, along with about $25 billion in US Notes or Greenbacks originally issued during the Civil War, are all that is left of the Treasury’s money-creating power. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Innovation with Chinese Characteristics

Posted by hkarner - 29. Oktober 2015

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Martin Neil Baily

Martin Neil Baily is Chair in Economic Policy Development and Senior Fellow and Director of the Business and Public Policy Initiative at the Brookings Institution.

Photo of Jonathan Woetzel

Jonathan Woetzel

Jonathan Woetzel is a director of the McKinsey Global Institute and co-author of No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends.

OCT 28, 2015, Project Syndicate

SHANGHAI – China’s slowing growth has dominated global economic news this year – and for good reason. Beyond being the world’s second-largest economy, China is the largest manufacturer and consumer of raw materials; so any sign of weakening there is bad news for the global economy. But, while concerns about growth certainly merit attention, they should be viewed in the context of China’s longer-term economic trajectory, especially its emergence as a global hub of innovation.

China is not given enough credit for how far it has come as an innovator. And yet, over the next decade, China could become not only the place where global companies conduct research and launch new products, but also the source of a low-cost and nimble approach to innovation that affects competition everywhere. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The contribution of the wage structure to early retirement behaviour

Posted by hkarner - 29. Oktober 2015

Wolfgang Frimmel, Rudolf Winter-Ebmer 28 October 2015, voxeu

Assistant Professor, Johannes Kepler University Linz

Professor at Labour Economics at the University of Linz and at the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna. CEPR Research Fellow

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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