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Archive for 26. Oktober 2015

Geld aus dem Helikopter

Posted by hkarner - 26. Oktober 2015

Mayers Weltwirtschaft . Dank an R.K.Mayer Thomas

Die Zentralbanken tun derzeit alles, um die Inflation anzuheizen. Bald könnten sie auf die nächste verrückte Idee kommen.

24.10.2015, FAZ

Die Inflationsziele unserer Zentralbanken nehmen immer mehr den Charakter der früheren Planvorgaben im real existierenden Sozialismus an: Soll- und Ist-Werte klaffen trotz größter Anstrengungen der Planer hartnäckig auseinander. Darunter leidet die Glaubwürdigkeit der Planungsbüros, damals wie heute. Kaum jemand versteht noch, was die amerikanische Fed wirklich will, da sich ihre Repräsentanten mit ihren Äußerungen seit geraumer Zeit im Widerspruch zwischen Plan und Wirklichkeit verheddern. Von der Europäischen Zentralbank und der Bank von Japan erwartet man weitere Ankäufe von Vermögenswerten, obwohl das Kaufmaterial auszugehen droht und nur noch wenig Hoffnung besteht, damit die Inflationsziele zu erreichen. Wie im real existierenden Sozialismus könnte die nächste Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise das real existierende Geldsystem über den Haufen werfen. Womit muss man rechnen?

Halten wir zunächst fest, dass wir uns gegenwärtig eher im Vorhof der nächsten Rezession als eines neuen Aufschwungs befinden. Der gegenwärtige Aufschwung ist altersschwach. In Amerika drohen ihm Gefahren von der Kompression der Unternehmensgewinne, wie sie sich in der gegenwärtigen Berichtsperiode für das vergangene Quartal andeutet. Aus den Schwellenländern weht kalter Wind zu uns, seit diese unter dem Abschwung des Kredit- und Rohstoffzyklus leiden. Es braucht also nicht mehr viel, und die nächste Rezession ist da. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The grip banks have over their customers is weakening

Posted by hkarner - 26. Oktober 2015

Date: 26-10-2015
Source: The Economist
Subject: Cracking the vault

A FEW dollars spent at Starbucks, a monthly mortgage payment, a Netflix fee, Starbucks again: bank-account statements are not exactly exciting stuff. But there is gold hidden in this by-product of our financial lives, or so many budding technology firms believe. A host of startups crave access to the data and are pitching services, from budgeting apps to cheaper loans, to those who open their books to them. Yet banks worry that co-operating is the first step towards losing the lucrative grip they have on their customers. 

Squeezing insights out of a bank statement is hardly at the cutting edge of big data. Years of salary payments confirm stable employment; bounced cheques hint at carelessness; regular green fees suggest an interest in golf. Banks implicitly use balance and income information when making loan decisions. That has typically given them a leg up over such rivals as consumer-lending companies, which have to base offers of credit on less detailed information. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Poland’s Successful Losers

Posted by hkarner - 26. Oktober 2015

Date: 26-10-2015rostrowski
Source: Project Syndicate
Subject:
JACEK ROSTOWSKI

Jacek Rostowski was Poland’s Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister from 2007 to 2013.

WARSAW – How can a government with the best economic record in Europe (indeed in the entire OECD) be humiliated at the polls by a Euroskeptic, nationalistic, and economically illiterate opposition – one deemed unelectable only a year ago? That is the question many Poles, and friends of Poland, are now asking, following the defeat on October 25 of the Civic Platform government. If creating jobs and boosting incomes can’t get you re-elected, what can?

One reason for the opposition’s victory is, of course, universal: after a time, people everywhere want change, and Civic Platform had been in power since 2007. And impatience with the status quo is arguably stronger in the post-communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe, where much of the social, political, and economic order is yet to be generally accepted. Indeed, Civic Platform’s Donald Tusk was Poland’s first post-communist prime minister to win successive terms.

Moreover, as parties govern longer, their strongest personalities tend to be replaced by weaker ones. Civic Platform contested this election after replacing Tusk with Ewa Kopacz, and has had the same problem with a number of other “substitutions.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The United Kingdom’s Retreat From Global Leadership

Posted by hkarner - 26. Oktober 2015

Date: 26-10-2015

Source: Foreign Affairs

Subject: Littler England

In the last year, some 39,000 migrants, mostly from North Africa, tried to make their way to the United Kingdom from the French port of Calais by boarding trucks and trains crossing the English Channel. In response, the British government attempted to secure the entrance to the tunnel in Calais, dispatching two and a half miles of security fencing that had been used for the 2012 Olympics and the 2014 NATO summit.

The United Kingdom’s improvised response to the migrant crisis, with recycled fences substituting for a coherent immigration policy, is emblematic of its increasingly parochial approach to the world beyond its shores. The Conservative government of Prime Minister David Cameron appears to lack a clear vision of the country’s place on the global stage. The United Kingdom, a nuclear power and permanent member of the UN Security Council, now seems intent not on engaging with the outside world but on insulating itself from it. The United Kingdom does not merely lack a grand strategy. It lacks any kind of clearly defined foreign policy at all, beyond a narrow trade agenda.

The rest of this article at:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/western-europe/littler-england

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How the Global Financial Crisis Drove Down Collective Bargaining  

Posted by hkarner - 26. Oktober 2015

Date: 25-10-2015
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The U.S. isn’t the only country where collective bargaining has come under pressure. The global financial crisis put a widespread dent on it in recent years, a new analysis of 48 countries shows.

Between 2008 and 2013, the share of employees covered by collective-bargaining agreements fell an average of 4.6% in the 48 countries assessed, while union density dropped an average 2.3%, according to the International Labor Organization study.

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The decline, which follows a longer-term slide in union membership rates in many countries, reflects a variety of factors. Legislation allowed some financially troubled companies to opt out of their bargaining agreements. The recession also made it more difficult to renew existing pacts. Meanwhile, some governments made it harder to negotiate national and sector-wide agreements reached by union federations and employer groups, favoring company-level pacts instead.

The study makes the case that wage inequality is rising, so public policies are needed to shore up collective bargaining and make it more inclusive. It says that bargaining coverage varies widely across a broader group of 75 countries, ranging from one or two percent of employees in Malaysia and Ethiopia to nearly 100% in Belgium and France. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The enduring structure of the Federal Reserve System: Is it time to redraw the map?

Posted by hkarner - 26. Oktober 2015

Matthew Jaremski, David C. Wheelock 25 October 2015, voxeu

Assistant Professor of Economics, Colgate University

Vice President and Deputy Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Standort Österreich: Das verlorene Kapital

Posted by hkarner - 26. Oktober 2015

24.10.2015 | 17:58 | von Gerhard Hofer (Die Presse)

Was passiert, wenn die Konzernzentrale in Deutschland, Mexiko oder Italien steht, zeigen AUA, Telekom Austria und Bank Austria. Was ist faul am Standort Österreich? Eine Analyse.

Als vor einigen Tagen die Gerüchte über die geplante Zerschlagung der Bank Austria immer lauter wurden, war das wieder ein willkommener Weckruf für Kulturpessimisten: Wieder ein heimisches Paradeunternehmen flöten gegangen! Die einst stolze Austrian Airlines nur noch ein Regionalflieger unter den Fittichen des deutschen Lufthansa-Kranichs. Die einst mächtige Telekom Austria nur noch ein Spielball eines mexikanischen Multimilliardärs. Und jetzt das einstige Finanzbollwerk der Stadt Wien, die Bank Austria.

Wer trägt Schuld an dieser Entwicklung? Stellt man diese Frage an die rote Reichshälfte, ist die Antwort klar: Die Privatisierungen – erfolgt in Zeiten der schwarz-blauen Regierung – haben zum Ausverkauf der heimischen Industrie geführt. Infrastrukturminister Alois Stöger (SPÖ) wird nicht müde zu betonen, dass unter ihm die Telekom Austria niemals an die Mexikaner gegangen wäre. Er sieht ein Versagen der früheren staatlichen Industrieholding ÖIAG, die ins schwarze Finanzministerium ressortierte. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China in Africa: A Modern Story of Colonization?

Posted by hkarner - 26. Oktober 2015

By and on October 23, 2015  RGE EconoMonitor

China in Africa: A Modern Story of Colonization?

China’s economic growth has been a key narrative in the story of economic miracle over the past two decades. Its Outward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in particular has played a prominent role in economic interactions with many developing countries. China, once a major recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI) has recently become one of the largest ‘emerging’ investors, especially in Sub Saharan Africa countries, with its biggest investments being in Nigeria, Sudan, South Africa and Angola among others. In recent times China has become an important partner of East Africa with some of its biggest projects in Uganda with an estimated total investment of $596m in 2012 alone (Jaramogi, 2013). With a recently agreed $2b oil field contract with China’s national offshore oil corporation CNOOC, Kenya has now an estimated total investment of $474m in 2012 (Xinhua, 2013). Tanzania sees an even larger investment, estimated to be $1bn (Tanzania Invest, 2012). However China’s increased presence in East Africa has gradually raised concerns about the economic development of these countries as well as the environmental and social sustainability of their natural resources; what remains unclear is whether China’s recent FDI in East Africa has any real intention in helping to promote economic growth and development in these countries. In recent times, China has undertaken multiple investments in sub Saharan Africa that most people believe is due to China’s search for natural resources to feed its industrial output. But it has not always been the case.

Until a decade ago, China’s influence in Africa was very limited. Between the 1980’s and 1990’s, there was a great economic change in the East African region as a result of the adoption of economic liberalization policies. These changes were brought about by the governments of various countries in the region resolving to use the private sector as its main catalyst for economic development. Since allowing access, China’s involvement in Africa has increased significantly.

Its issuing out of foreign aid was hardly significant, and as a highly populated country, it was not very active in the global market. However, in recent times, China’s economic reawakening – especially in foreign markets – has demonstrated that the era of observers regularly naming the US, France and the UK as the only foreign powers to have substantial interests in sub-Saharan Africa is coming to an end.

Over the past decade China has established itself as an increasingly influential player across the continent. Given the impressive scale and scope of its engagement, China’s return to Africa may turn out to be one of the most significant catalysts for developments for the region (Tull, 2006). Such growth is expected to continue, with forecasts suggesting trade between these two partners reaching $1.7t by 2030, up from a mere $200b in 2012 (UNCTAD World Investment Report, 2013). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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