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Archive for 18. November 2011

Chart of the Day: Definitive Guide to the European Debt Web

Geschrieben von hkarner - 18. November 2011

Author: Edward Harrison · November 18th, 2011 · RGE EconoMonitor
The BBC has a terrific chart tool that gives you a good feel for exactly how much the sovereign debtors and other debtors in each of the European countries owe and to which other countries. The great thing about this chart is that it also shows you the debt flows outside of the European periphery i.e. for Franceand Germany, as well as for Japan, the US and Britain in both directions. I would like to see the breakdown between sovereign and other foreign debt more definitively. But on the whole, this is a superb tool from the BBC.Below are snapshots of all of the countries represented. The one country we are missing that might be interesting is China. The source link is at the bottom. Click there to play around with the graphic yourself. (Hat tip Andy Lees).

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Hören Sie lieber zu, statt zu applaudieren.“

Geschrieben von hkarner - 18. November 2011

Handelsblatt.com, 18/11

Italiens neuer Regierungschef Mario Monti in seiner Antrittrede, mit der er Italien ein knüppelhartes Sparprogramm verordnete, von den applaudierenden Senatoren dabei aber 17 Mal unterbrochen wurde.

“Sguardi attoniti e rumore in aula, con Monti a risolvere brillantemente la situazione. “Ascoltate, non applaudite”, ha esclamato il premier, per poi tornare al discorso” La Stampa

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Obergrenze für Anleihekäufe: „Berechenbarkeit macht die EZB wehrlos“

Geschrieben von hkarner - 18. November 2011

Handelsblatt.com, 18/11

Der Streit um die Rolle der EZB in der Euro-Krise spitzt sich zu. Berichte, dass sie sich Grenzen für Anleihekäufe setzt, werden nicht dementiert. Das hätte Folgen für ihre Macht, der Spekulation entgegen zu treten.

Der Präsident der Europaeischen Zentralbank (EZB), Mario Draghi. Quelle: dapd

Berlin, Düsseldor. fBerichte über eine Höchstgrenze für die wöchentlichen Anleihekäufe der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) stoßen unter Ökonomen auf heftige Kritik. “Die EZB macht ihren Schutz unwirksam, wenn sie vorher festlegt, bis zu welcher Grenze sie Anleihen kauft,” sagte der Direktor des gewerkschaftsnahen Instituts für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK), Gustav Horn, im Gespräch mit Handelsblatt Online.

Laut eines Zeitungsberichts legt die EZB vorab eine Höchstgrenze für ihre wöchentlichen Anleihekäufe fest. Alle zwei Wochen verständige sich der EZB-Rat auf ein Limit für die wöchentlichen Ankäufe, berichtete die „Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung“ am Freitag. Die Begrenzung werde in Notenbankkreisen „als Geheimnis behandelt“, weil man ansonsten befürchtet, Spekulationen zu ermuntern. Eine Sprecherin der EZB wollte dies auf Anfrage nicht kommentieren. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Crisis Ensnares Central Bank in Desperate Bid to Save Euro .

Geschrieben von hkarner - 18. November 2011

Na, da reitet uns unser begabter Herr Nationalbankgouverneur (und EZB Ratsmitglied) wieder in etwas hinein (siehe unten unter “Austria”) (hfk)

Date: 18-11-2011
Source: The Wall Street Journal

FRANKFURT—At a mid-July meeting of the European Central Bank’s governing board, the bank’s longtime president, Jean-Claude Trichet, was summoned from a conference room to take an urgent call from Berlin.

 It was Angela Merkel. The German chancellor and French President Nicolas Sarkozy were about to meet in Berlin to deal with Greece’s debt crisis and were at odds over what losses investors might be forced to take. They hoped the ECB could broker a compromise.

“They want me to go to Berlin,” Mr. Trichet told ECB colleagues when he returned from taking the call. He demurred, worried about thrusting the central bank deeper into the political realm and risking its independence.

In the end, however, he and his central-bank colleagues reached a conclusion that has defined their approach to the two-year-old euro-zone crisis: The danger of not helping outweighed the risk of entering the political fray.

Mr. Trichet caught the last Lufthansa flight to Berlin and passed through the gates of the austere chancellery, where he stayed past midnight in Ms. Merkel’s office helping put together a deal on a new Greek bailout plan that was unveiled the next day.

Europe’s politicians, unable to end the euro zone’s two-year-old debt crisis, have relied increasingly on the ECB, an institution that was chartered to foster price stability but instead finds itself propping up the borrowing power of fragile nations. The expansion of its mission has profound consequences for Europe because in transcending its mandate, the ECB has assumed a new role: Europe’s most potent institution. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Chinese Bubble Bursting: A Probable Non-Event

Geschrieben von hkarner - 18. November 2011

Author: Philip Pilkington · November 8th, 2011 RGE EconoMonitor

In waking a tiger, use a long stick.– Mao Tse-tung

Well, it looks like it could finally be happening. The Chinese housing bubble could well be bursting right before our eyes.The bubble has long been present for all to see, with news reports popping up earlier this year about ‘ghost cities’ and ‘ghost malls’. Indeed, it’s been so visible and so well observed that even the mainstream media picked up on it. That’s right, folks… you heard me right: the mainstream media picked up on it! God, it must be serious!People have been calling the bursting of this bubble for a while now. But this is the first real indication I’ve seen that this particular house of cards – excuse the pun – is beginning to topple.On Sunday Gordon G. Chang over at Forbes noted:“Residential property prices are in freefall in China as developers race to meet revenue targets for the year in a quickly deteriorating market. The country’s largest builders began discounting homes in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen in recent weeks, and the trend has now spread to second- and third-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Hefei, and Chongqing. In Chongqing, for instance, Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa cut asking prices 32% at its Cape Coral project. “The price war has begun,” said Alan Chiang Sheung-lai of property consultant DTZ to the South China Morning Post.”Conservative estimates say that property prices in China will fall by 10% next year, while some, such as Cao Jianhai of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, see potential price falls of 50%.So, why did this bubble inflate and what will be the consequences if it deflates?Dude, where’s my communism?We could look at the superficial reasons as to why the bubble inflated – you know, the usual non-story of low interest rates and a boom in bank lending. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe’s Central Banking Crisis

Geschrieben von hkarner - 18. November 2011

Author: James Picerno · November 17th, 2011 · RGE EconoMonitor
The optimists expect that the European Central Bank will do the right thing… eventually. Perhaps, but would a philosophy transplant at this late date make a difference? Year-over-year growth in euro monetary aggregates is growing at a snail’s pace of around 3%. That hardly comes close to what’s needed for an economy that’s suffering from a banking crisis, high unemployment (10% plus), rising bond yields,and the likelihood that the Continent is dipping into a new recession. The austerity-now movement is courting disaster.

Europe is suffering from policies that are a defacto gold standard, albeit imposed by way of fiat currency. The euro region’s broad M3 monetary aggregate rose a mere 3.1% for the year through September. With a recession looming for Europe, monetary policy is effectively throwing gasoline on a simmering fire. The dysfunction is obvious when you see government bond yields rising amid heightened recession risk. Normally, capital would be flowing into bonds on the expectation that the central bank would favor an easier monetary policy. But this is Europe, where the concept of promoting financial stability is a radical idea and certain government bonds aren’t quite what they appear to be.For perspective, broad money supply is rising at a considerably higher rate in the U.S. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A new era for commodities

Geschrieben von hkarner - 18. November 2011

Date: 17-11-2011
Source: McKinsey

Cheap resources underpinned economic growth for much of the 20th century.
The 21st will be different.
 

Exhibit: In little more than a decade, soaring commodity prices have erased a century of steady declines.

Has the global economy entered an era of persistently high, volatile commodity prices? Our research shows that during the past eight years alone, they have undone the decline of the previous century, rising to levels not seen since the early 1900s (exhibit). In addition, volatility is now greater than at any time since the oil-shocked 1970s because commodity prices increasingly move in lockstep. Our analysis suggests that they will remain high and volatile for at least the next 20 years if current trends hold—barring a major macroeconomic shock—as global resource markets oscillate in response to surging global demand and inelastic supplies. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Painful Euro Crisis and Lessons for the World – Part I

Geschrieben von hkarner - 18. November 2011

Date: 17-11-2011
Source: YaleGlobal: Jacob Funk Kirkegaard

The slow-motion crisis of the euro seems to have reached a plateau with the formation of new governments in Greece and Italy. But Europe’s debt crisis is complex with far-reaching implications. In this two-part series, YaleGlobal examines the ramification of the crisis, the reform course Europe must take and the lessons that others can draw from it. In the first part of the series, Jacob Funk Kirkegaard of the Peterson Institute for International Economics identifies four overlapping crises: weak regulatory institutions, undercapitalized banks, uneven competitiveness and contagion. A global audience looks for Europe not only to end the debt crisis, but to restore confidence in so-called risk-free debt, and draft a script for avoiding repeat acts. Kirkegaard warns that that there is no easy fix – the world can expect the drawn-out containment efforts of the past 18 months to continue. If the reforms succeed, Europe will be a more tightly integrated union but one cannot rule out failure either. – YaleGlobal

As the world watches, Europe battles to contain burgeoning debt and restore confidence

WASHINGTON: The eurozone crisis has gradually taken center-place in an increasingly volatile global economy since May 2010. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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