Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Archive for 11. Februar 2011

WHY DID THE IMF FAIL TO GIVE CLEAR WARNING?

Posted by hkarner - 11. Februar 2011

IEO-IMF, 9/2/11 

This evaluation assesses the performance of IMF surveillance in the run-up to the global financial and economic crisis and offers recommendations on how to strengthen the IMF’s ability to discern risks and vulnerabilities and to warn the membership in the future. It finds that the IMF provided few clear warnings about the risks and vulnerabilities associated with
the impending crisis before its outbreak. The banner message was one of continued optimism40. Various factors played a role in the IMF’s failure to identify risks and give clear warnings. Many of these factors represent long-standing problems that had been highlighted for over a decade.
 
  
24 In this section, these factors are grouped into the following broad categories: analytical weaknesses, organizational impediments, internal governance problems, and political constraints.25 There are considerable interconnections among these categories, and their relative importance is based on subjective judgments. The IMF’s ability to correctly identify the mounting risks was hindered by a high degree of groupthink, intellectual capture, a general mindset that a major financial crisis in large advanced economies was unlikely, and incomplete analytical approaches. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
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Inflation is coming! Or so we’re told. Instead look at the evidence.

Posted by hkarner - 11. Februar 2011

Fabius Maximus, 7 February 2011

by Fabius Maximus

Summary:  Not a day goes by that investment or political (conservative) writers don’t assure us that inflation is coming to the US – or even here.  Except when they’re warning of hyperinflation (for the right-wing its always Weimer-inflation, except when it’s NAZI-Munich).  This post shows the evidence that they’re wrong, and a possible source of this hysteria.

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Contents

  1. Warning signs of inflation?  No.
  2. There are signs of deflation.
  3. In fact we have low inflation
  4. What about rising food prices?
  5. The Boomers’ secret lust for inflation
  6. For more information about inflation

(1)  Warning signs of inflation?  No.

Monetary inflation from the Fed printing money!  Look at the line on that graph skyrocket!  Or not.  The slight increase since November results from QE2.

Monetary inflation show by the rapid increase in the US money supply!  Look at the line on that graph skyrocket!  Or not.  The YoY increase in M2 is 4.3%, roughly the increase in nominal GDP (the money supply should increase along with GDP). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Bad, Likely, and Seldom Mentioned Scenario for the U.S. During the Next Few Years

Posted by hkarner - 11. Februar 2011

Nur für die US, frage ich??? (hfk)
Fabius Maximus, RGE Monitor Feb 8, 2011 7:02PM

Summary: Rising inflation would be bad. But there is something that might make inflation far worse, is more likely, and almost never mentioned: prices rising faster than wages..

About the past

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