Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Archive for 6. September 2010

Tous ruinés dans dix ans ?: Dette publique : la dernière chance

Posted by hkarner - 6. September 2010

 L’endettement public rend-il la rigueur inéluctable ?
– Une politique de rigueur est toujours nécessaire. En vérité, la question qui se pose est de savoir s’il faut une politique de réduction du pouvoir d’achat. Sans aucun doute, il va falloir réduire les dépenses de l’Etat et augmenter les impôts, ce qui se traduira par un transfert de pouvoir d’achat vers des dépenses collectives. Sinon, la dette continuera à augmenter, et nous serons en faillite.
– Votre livre est très pessimiste !
– J’envisage les scénarios du pire, et il faut reconnaître que chaque jour qui passe, notamment avec la crise grecque, nous en rapproche un peu plus. Il faut donc un plan d’urgence. Mais si tous les pays se mettent à pratiquer la rigueur en même temps, nous entrerons dans une spirale de dépression. Je crois de plus en plus à une capacité d’emprunt européenne capable de relayer la croissance en finançant des programmes d’investissement. Il faut des bons du Trésor européens.
– Peut-on comparer 2010 et 1983, quant vous étiez conseiller à l’Elysée ?
– En 1982-1983, la crise était liée au déficit extérieur et aux menaces de dévaluations, alors qu’aujourd’hui, elle découle de la dette interne, et nous nous sentons protégés par l’euro. Mais la situation est aussi grave, et il y a la même urgence de trancher et de prendre des décisions impopulaires. –Interview de Jacques Attali, Challenges, 21 mai 2010

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Wirtschaftsforscher: In 10 Jahren ist Europa ruiniert

Posted by hkarner - 6. September 2010

04.09.2010 | 11:57 |  (DiePresse.com)

Der französische Wissenschaftler Jacques Attali befürchtet, dass Europa dem Schicksal Argentiniens folgt. Grund dafür sieht er in den gewaltigen Schulden und der Illusion eines nicht vorhandenen Wirtschaftswachstums.

Nach Ansicht des französischen Wirtschaftswissenschaftlers Jacques Attali befindet sich Europa im unaufhaltsamen Niedergang. In einem vor kurzem erschienenen Buch mit dem Titel „Sind wir in zehn Jahren ruiniert?“ (Tous ruinés dans dix ans?) prophezeit der Ex-Berater des früheren Präsidenten Francois Mitterrand dem Alten Kontinent das Schicksal des einst wohlhabenden Argentinien.

In einem Interview mit der spanischen Zeitung „El Pais“ (Online-Ausgabe von Samstag) meinte Attali, wie alle erschöpften Gesellschaften habe der Westen sich in gewaltige Schulden gestürzt, um den Lebensstandard halten zu können. „Seit den 80er Jahren haben wir die Illusion eines Wirtschaftswachstums aufrechterhalten, das sich im Wesentlichen auf Verschuldung stützt. Das ist nichts Neues, erinnern Sie sich an Venedig…auch sie haben geglaubt, dass der Ruin nur die anderen betrifft.“

Maximal zehn Jahre bis Absturz Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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America, Land of Paradox: The Country That Launched Corporate Globalization Should Be First to End It

Posted by hkarner - 6. September 2010

   Date: 02-09-2010
 Source: AlterNet

Globalization, which has mixed people and ideas through immigration and trade, has enriched the US but also added to complications. “America has been as successful, more so than most, using the principles and practices of this republic’s founding, to mix the nationalities of Europe and more fitfully other peoples from across the planet into a relatively healthy concoction,” explains Joe Costello, political advisor for US Democrats, in an AlterNet essay. Global economic downturn, industrial decline, record high levels of debt, wage inequality, and growing recognition of the limits in land and resources add to current challenges for US and its immigrant population. Cheap wages, trade in disposable or non-essential goods, subsidized energy costs – all stemming from corporate globalization that pursues profits over a national or global common good – do not provide economic rescue. Costello welcomes immigration, but calls for the end of corporate globalization. However, economic decline complicates the timing for tariffs proposed by Costello. – YaleGlobal

To truly appreciate America, you have to understand its paradoxes. They are great. The first modern republic birthed in the original sin of slavery. A nation of immigrants that destroyed the native population, and time after time worries about the next wave of immigrants. The history of immigrant bashing is old as the republic, always coinciding with economic downturns. The Know-Nothings of the 1850s worried about the first great mass of German and Irish immigration, and of course the protestant nation worrying about papism. There were the Japanese interments of WWII. More recently, in order to get reelected governor of California in 1994, Pete Wilson embraced the anti-immigrant, anti-Mexican Prop 187. He won, but destroyed the Republican party in California. And of course we have the most recent idiocy in Arizona. A nation of immigrants, which every once in awhile tries to close the door, that’s paradox.

If you understand this trait in the American psyche, while it doesn’t make it anymore palatable to watch the latest manifestation, it does give you some helpful context. Especially if you keep in mind that over time, America has been as successful, more so than most, using the principles and practices of this republic’s founding, to mix the nationalities of Europe and more fitfully other peoples from across the planet into a relatively healthy concoction. After two-hundred years, there is little discrimination based on European nationality. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Stuffing Their Pockets: For CEOs, a lucrative recession.

Posted by hkarner - 6. September 2010

   Date: 05-09-2010
 Source: NewsWeek

CEOs Behaving Badly

One of the most startling things about the post-crisis landscape is how tone-deaf the wealthiest Americans remain to outrage over their Croesus-like pay packages. The award for complete obliviousness would have to go to Blackstone cofounder Stephen Schwarzman, who earlier this summer compared government attempts to raise taxes on financiers such as himself to Hitler’s invasion of Poland. Silver medals should certainly be handed out to the many executives and corporate lawyers who were grousing last week about the new Dodd-Frank bill, which includes a rule requiring companies to disclose the difference in pay between their chief executive and their lowest-level workers. It would be a “logistical nightmare,” these titans of industry wailed, for firms to compile this information. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Let’s Look at the Rules

Posted by hkarner - 6. September 2010

John Mauldin, 5/9

There are rules in sports. Three strikes and you’re out. You have to make ten yards in four downs to get another first down. You can’t touch the soccer ball with your hands.

Baseball is a confusing game for most non-Americans. There are so many rules and subtleties. I (John) confess to not understanding the rules in soccer, although I am getting better. And forget about understanding hockey.

There are rules in economics as well, they’re just not as well-known. And breaking these rules has consequences for individuals, companies, and countries. Sadly, there is no independent referee who can blow a whistle and stop the game, assess a penalty, and make you obey the rules. There is, however, a market that can decide not to buy your currency or your bonds if you don’t play by the rules.

We are going to look at some of the more important rules in this chapter. But, gentle reader, don’t panic. These rules are fairly easy to understand if we take out the academic jargon often associated with them. And if you „get it“ then it is much easier to understand the consequences of what happens when a nation violates the rules, both from a policy perspective and a personal investing point of view. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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