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Archive for 7. Mai 2010

A Money Too Far

Posted by hkarner - 7. Mai 2010

   Date: 07-05-2010
So, is Greece the next Lehman? No. It isn’t either big enough or interconnected enough to cause global financial markets to freeze up the way they did in 2008. Whatever caused that brief 1,000-point swoon in the Dow, it wasn’t justified by actual events in Europe.

Nor should you take seriously analysts claiming that we’re seeing the start of a run on all government debt. U.S. borrowing costs actually plunged on Thursday to their lowest level in months. And while worriers warned that Britain could be the next Greece, British rates also fell slightly.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that Greece’s problems are deeper than Europe’s leaders are willing to acknowledge, even now — and they’re shared, to a lesser degree, by other European countries. Many observers now expect the Greek tragedy to end in default; I’m increasingly convinced that they’re too optimistic, that default will be accompanied or followed by departure from the euro.

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It’s Not About Greece Anymore

Posted by hkarner - 7. Mai 2010

Peter Boone and Simon Johnson, Baseline Scenario

May 6, 2010 9:59PM

The Greek “rescue” package announced last weekend is dramatic, unprecedented, and far from enough to stabilize the eurozone. 

The Greek government and the European Union (EU) leadership, prodded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), are finally becoming realistic about the dire economic situation in Greece.  They have abandoned previous rounds of optimistic forecasts and have now admitted to a profoundly worse situation.  This new program calls for a total of 11% of GDP in terms of “fiscal adjustments” (i.e., reduction in the budget deficit; now meaning government spending cuts mostly) in 2010, 4.3% in 2011, and 2% in 2012 and 2013.  The total debt to GDP ratio peaks at 149% in 2012-13 before starting a gentle glide path back down to sanity. 

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John Taylor: „Dead Man Walking…The Euro Is Finished“

Posted by hkarner - 7. Mai 2010

Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge

May 6, 2010 4:02PM

By John R. Taylor, Jr., CIO of F/X Concepts 

One of the incidents that I remember from my youth was the first time I saw a chicken slaughtered and running around headless for quite a few minutes before it keeled over and died. The euro is at that stage. Its life is finished, but it will be around for some time before it becomes a subject of historical analysis. Actually the euro was always a short term solution, even on the day it was born. There were only two possible outcomes: the euro would blow up, or it would lead to an EU with taxing and borrowing authority. Theoretically those two choices are still possible, but the euro’s disintegration is moving so quickly and the political barriers are rising so fast that the chances of a much closer and ever tightening political bond between the internal surplus countries and the internal deficit countries is basically non-existent. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How Will the ECB Fight Contagion: Refuses to Extend Longer Term Liquidity, Buy Government Bonds

Posted by hkarner - 7. Mai 2010

The spread between the overnight indexed swap rate and LIBOR, which is a measure of counter-party risk in the interbank system, is drifting higher. Industry insiders confirm that institutions find it more difficult to finance themselves longer term at decent rates. Moody’s issued a report analyzing the potential for bank contagion from Greece in Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy and the UK, noting that „overall, each of the six banking systems examined in this report faces different challenges, but the contagion risk could dilute these differences and impose very real, common threats on all of them.“ Meanwhile, the ECB kept the main refi rate at 1% and said that the purchase of government debt was not discussed and that Spain and Portugal were not in the same predicament as Greece. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said, “We call for decisive actions by governments to achieving a lasting and credible consolidation of public finances.“ Further options for the ECB to fight contagion include resuming longer-term refinancing operations (LTRO); cutting rates from 1% and starting quantitative easing (QE) by buying government bonds in the secondary market and FX swaps with foreign central banks.

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The Global Crisis of Legitimacy

Posted by hkarner - 7. Mai 2010

John Mauldin’s „Outside the Box“. 7/5/10.

  From my friend George Friedman, founder & CEO of STRATFOR, here’s my newest favorite quote concerning economic recessions: „Like forest fires, they are painful when they occur, yet without them, the forest could not survive. They impose discipline, punishing the reckless, rewarding the cautious.“ The thin line of where risky becomes reckless is something I’d like to focus us on today. No matter the risk-level of your portfolio, if you are reading this you are probably smart enough to know that when you play with fire you may get burned. You have to know how to look for smoke, or signs of a potential catastrophe, so you know not to grab the doorknob with both hands.

I’m including George’s discussion of the contributing facets of a recession, its inevitability and the idea of risk. As if the title won’t intrigue you to begin with, take my advice and give „The Global Crisis of Legitimacy“ a read. STRATFOR uses its signature analytic approach to decipher today’s issues, applying historical context ranging from Adam Smith to the Lehman Brothers. Also, join their mailing list to receive two weekly intelligence pieces, and find that fire before your next investment opportunity comes along.

John Mauldin
Editor, Outside the Box


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«Warte nur, bis ich dran bin»

Posted by hkarner - 7. Mai 2010

 Aus der Weltwoche, 5/5/10. Dank an RB.

Wie kommt es eigentlich, dass die Griechen und ihre Regierungen so gern betrügen? Zum besseren Verständnis der griechischen Seele und Vetternwirtschaft.

Von Taki

Zunächst ein kurzer historischer Abriss, damit wir verstehen, warum die Griechen im Allgemeinen und die griechischen Regierungen im Besonderen so gern betrügen. Nach den glorreichen Zeiten der Antike gehörten die Griechen zum oströmischen Reich, dessen grandiose Hauptstadt Konstantinopel im Jahr 330 von Kaiser Konstantin gegründet wurde. Byzanz dauerte bis 1453, als die Stadt von Sultan Mehmet II. erobert wurde. Es folgten vierhundert Jahre türkischer Herrschaft, und mit ihr die meisten Übel, die das moderne Griechenland in seiner jüngeren Geschichte plagen: bürgerlicher Ungehorsam, Misstrauen gegenüber dem Staat, politische Unreife.

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1. Mai: Drum werd ich jetzt Grieche, Willy!

Posted by hkarner - 7. Mai 2010

<!– 02.05.2010
–>Aus Konstantin Wecker’s Blog:

Liebe Freunde!

Wir haben uns heute durch den Regen im Ludwigshafener Ebertpark beim Konzert nach der Maiveranstaltung des DGB nicht entmutigen lassen, meine Freunde Jo Barnikel und Severin Trogbacher, unser Publikum und ich, und es war mir ganz wichtig, bei diesem Konzert erstmals von einem neuerlichen Besuch am Grab meines Freundes Willy zu berichten.

Euer Konstantin


Mei Willy. Du weißt es ja eh schon. Immer wenn ich richtig wütend bin, kumm i wieder zu dir und hol mir deinen Rat. Und i bin wieder mal stocksauer, denn was da zur Zeit mit unseren Freunden den Griechen getrieben wird spottet jeder Beschreibung.
Wieder mal schafft es eine Clique superreicher Soziopathen, ihre Gewinne auf Kosten derer zu vermehren, denen sie diese Gewinne überhaupt erst verdanken.

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