Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Archive for 14. August 2009

Europe’s Surge Signals Hope for Economic Recovery

Posted by hkarner - 14. August 2009

 aus der heutigen NYT:

By CARTER DOUGHERTY  Published: August 13, 2009

FRANKFURT — The European economy bounced back with unexpected strength in the second quarter, buoying hopes that a worldwide recession was drawing to a close. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Some Mid-Summer Thoughts on Inflation – Euro Thoughts – UniCredit Group

Posted by hkarner - 14. August 2009

Aurelio Maccario | Aug 11, 2009

Inflation fears are a widespread feeling in markets these days. The recent stream of positive (or less negative) economic data from US, China and Emerging Markets (EM) in general and, to a lesser extent, the euro area has reinforced this feeling. As a consequence, medium-term breakevens have risen sizeably and in meeting with clients and investors you get the clear impression that the market is pondering the idea that sooner rather than later major central banks ECB included will find themselves behind the curve, rushing to implement their exit strategies. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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More Trouble in the Baltics as S&P Downgrades

Posted by hkarner - 14. August 2009

Edward Harrison | Aug 11, 2009

Both Latvia’s and Estonia’s debt ratings were downgraded by Standard and Poors.  Estonia was cut from A to A-, while Latvia was cut to BB+ to BB – its considered high yield securities aka junk bonds. This should come as no surprise as both countries have been in the news due to severe economic dislocations as they attempt to maintain currency pegs in the face of a severe debt deleveraging. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China has become a giant ponzi scheme

Posted by hkarner - 14. August 2009

又瘋狂了 / 謝國忠

2009-08-03 12:59 | 阅读(20900) | 标签: 中國, 經濟, 股市, 謝囯忠  | 字号:  
 Chinese stock and property markets have bubbled up again. It was fueled by bank lending and inflation fear. I think that Chinese stocks and properties are 50-100% overvalued. The odds are that both will adjust in the fourth quarter. However, both might flare up again sometime next year. Fluctuating within a long bubble could be the dominant trend for the foreseeable future. The bursting will happen when the US dollar becomes strong again. The catalyst could be serious inflation that forces the Fed to raise interest rate. 

Chinese asset markets have become a giant Ponzi scheme. The prices are supported by appreciation expectation. As more people and liquidity are sucked in, the resulting surging prices validate the expectation, which prompts more people to join the party. This sort of bubble ends when there isn’t enough liquidity to feed the beast.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Systemic Risk: Are Some Institutions Too Big to Fail and If So, What Should We Do about It?

Posted by hkarner - 14. August 2009

Simon Johnson | Aug 12, 2009
Testimony before the US House Committee on Financial Services hearing, „Systemic Risk: Are Some Institutions Too Big to Fail and If So, What Should We Do About It?“ July 21, 2009  

Main Points Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China’s Undervalued Currency

Posted by hkarner - 14. August 2009

Interview über ein neues Buch:

Perhaps the most important conclusion is that the new policy that China adopted with respect to its exchange rate in the middle of 1995 has probably brought them closer to what we would call an equilibrium situation-that is, one in which their current account, or their trade surplus, is not so huge. But that they still have a way to go.

china currency lardy

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Credit Markets Update: Fundamentals Driven or Too Much Liquidity?

Posted by hkarner - 14. August 2009

from the RGE Monitor:

What a difference a few months make. At the end of Q1 the financial world was staring into the abyss. Now, at the end of Q2, observers are asking themselves whether the next asset bubble is around the corner. This week’s newsletter reviews the recent performance of money and credit markets and asks whether the current performance drivers are likely to remain in place for the foreseeable future. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Roubini: Risk of Double-Dip Recession Not Quite Past Yet

Posted by hkarner - 14. August 2009

 The world economy still risks a double-dip recession if oil prices rise toward $100 per barrel and if huge U.S. government debts frighten investors, Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics and chairman of RGE Monitor, told CNBC.

Nouriel Roubini
CNBC.com
Nouriel Roubini

 „There is a risk, a low probability for a double dip,“ Roubini said on „Squawk Box.“

 Although the risk of a depression has been virtually eliminated by the massive monetary stimulus, „we are in the middle of the worst recession in 60 years“ and the rallying stock market may have gotten ahead of itself, he added. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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After the Recession, What Will the Global Growth Trajectory Look Like?

Posted by hkarner - 14. August 2009

  • Now that there are signs that the worst of the U.S. and global recession may be over, in terms of the sheer size of quarterly loss of output, analysts are turning their attention to the shape and robustness of the recovery. Many market actors have been pricing in a swift ‚V‘-shaped recovery but others suggest that the global economy may remain weak for some quarters to come in a ‚U‘ shaped recovery. Others suggest the risk of a double-dip in which inventory adjustment and policy stimulus leads to some quarters of positive growth but the effect wears off in the absence of a sustained increase in global aggregate demand.

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Eurozone GDP Fell 0.1% Q/Q in Q2 2009 (-4.6% Y/Y): Improvements Witnessed

Posted by hkarner - 14. August 2009

  • Q2 2009 GDP fell a mere 0.1% q/q according to Eurostat flash estimates. GDP contracted 4.6% y/y. Germany’s GDP grew 0.3% q/q; France’s GDP rose 0.3% q/q; Portugal’s GDP increased 0.3% q/q, while Italy’s GDP contracted 0.5% q/q and Belgium’s GDP fell 0.4% q/q.

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