Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Archive for 26. Juni 2009

What Next For The Global Crisis?

Posted by hkarner - 26. Juni 2009

Simon Johnson on a World Bank Conference. Simon Johnson is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at MIT’s Sloan School of Management.

There are two views of the global financial crisis and – more importantly – of what comes next.  The first is shared by almost all officials and underpins government thinking in the United States, the remainder of the G7, Western Europe, and beyond.  The second is quite unofficial – no government official has yet been found anywhere near this position.  Yet versions of this unofficial view have a great deal of support and may even be gaining traction over time as events unfold. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Wrenches thrown into the (uncertain) speed of economic recovery

Posted by hkarner - 26. Juni 2009

Nobody ever said that a recession was easy; but it looks like the recovery is going to be a little rocky, too. Renewed optimism has brought about increasing mortgage rates and gas prices – both factors have the potential to cripple an economic recovery, as households are thrown back to the economic wolves. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Growing Pains for the Euro

Posted by hkarner - 26. Juni 2009

 

Adam S. Posen, coeditor o fThe Euro at Ten: The Next Global Currency?, asserts that the euro has

helped stabilize the European economy but is also falling short of its potential in the face of the global financial crisis. Siehe den ganzen Artikel: posen Growing Pains for the Euro

 

 

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Paul Krugman: Out of the Shadows

Posted by hkarner - 26. Juni 2009

by Mark Thoma (Mark A. Thoma is an associate professor of economics at the University of Oregon):

The good, the bad, and the ugly parts of the administration’s financial reform proposal: Out of the Shadows, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NYTimes: Would the Obama administration’s plan for financial reform do what has to be done? Yes and no. … Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Does the Obama Plan for Reforming Wall Street Measure Up?

Posted by hkarner - 26. Juni 2009

Ganz wichtiger Artikel by Robert Reich (American politician, academic, writer, and political commentator. He served as the twenty-second United States Secretary of Labor under President Bill Clinton, from 1993 to 1997):

In a word: No.

The plan doesn’t stop stop bankers from making huge, risky bets with other peoples’ money. It does increase capital requirements and oversight, but it doesn’t require bankers to take their pay in long-term stock options or warrants, and it doesn’t even hint that banks should go back to being partnerships instead of publicly-held corporations. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Swedish Banks: Could They Get Burned By Heavy Baltic Exposure?

Posted by hkarner - 26. Juni 2009

The health of Sweden’s banking system is increasingly coming under the microscope given its exposure to the rapidly contracting Baltic economies (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania). Swedish banks’ outstanding lending to the three Baltic states is around 20% of their collective GDP (US$ 60 billion), mostly in foreign currency. In June, Sweden’s central bank and the financial supervisory authority (FI) both released stress test results, which showed all the Swedish banks weathering the Baltic malaise. However, the central bank and FI’s stress test scenarios were not especially stressful and may soon start looking more like base case scenarios. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Regulatory Reforms in G7 Financial Centers

Posted by hkarner - 26. Juni 2009

As decided at the latest G20 meeting, authorities around the world are devising micro- and macro-prudential reforms in order to strengthen the resilience not only of single financial institutions but of the entire financial system by extending oversight to all important financial institutions, products, and activities. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Swiss National Bank: FX Interventions Turn Aggressive

Posted by hkarner - 26. Juni 2009

  • The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) interventions to devalue the Swiss franc (CHF) turned aggressive in late June 2009 as it started buying dollars in addition to Euros. At its last meeting on June 18, 2009, SNB held its target range for 3-month Libor at 0%-0.75% with the target rate at 0.25%, matching the lows of the last cycle. The SNB will continue with quantitative easing and FX interventions to help avert deflation and aid Swiss exporters and Eastern European borrowers
  • The magnitude of the recent jump in the currency on June 18 and the amount of time the SNB had taken to intervene again suggests that policymakers have realized currency intervention is losing effectiveness. The SNB should change its tactic by letting the exchange rate pass the 1.50 EUR/CHF threshold. A temporary violation of its target rate will allow for effective currency intervention in the future (Brown Brothers Harriman)

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U.S. Credit Card Delinquencies/Charge-Offs at Record Highs: Lenders Step In

Posted by hkarner - 26. Juni 2009

  • Moody’s: „Credit card charge off rates for May 2009 have surpassed 10%. This trajectory is consistent with the revised expectation for the charge-off rate index to peak in the second quarter of 2010 at about 12%, assuming an unemployment rate peak close to 10% in the first half of 2010“ (Zero Hedge)
  • Banks such as Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America have come to the rescue of the off-balance-sheet vehicles that help them to fund credit card loans. While most credit card securitizations are still well above loss triggers that force early repayment of investors, banks have a strong incentive to provide support before accelerating credit card losses put the trusts in the danger zone (Financial Times)

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